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2019 College Football Season/Playoff Thread

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MGMT said:
Also is that LSU -5.5 easy money or have I lost my mind?
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I'd be careful with that one...

1. It's essentially a home game for UGA since the game is in Atlanta.

2. While LSU's margin of victory this year is a gawdy 26.6 ppg, against opponents that are currently ranked it drops to just 7.3 ppg. In other words, they've been really, really good this season, but they've been in some dog fights against tougher teams.

3. LSU's defense is still questionable despite drubbing the greatest 5-loss team in the history of college football on Saturday. They gave up 38 to a now 7-5 Texas team, 38 to Vandy (yes, THAT Vandy) and 37 to Ole Miss.

4. Georgia has an elite defense this year. They haven't given up more than 20 points in any game (they're #2 in the nation in scoring defense and #4 in total defense), allowing only 186.0 passing yards per game. While they haven't faced a quarterback like Burrow, they have shown the ability to limit long passing plays - they only allow 1.5 completions per game of over 30 yards. Which means, Burrow will need to rely on short and medium level routes... which plays right into UGA's strength - their linebacking corps. UGA typically plays a 3-4, and three of the four LBs (Ojulari, Crowder and Rice) are borderline elite, possess outstanding speed and are very effective in coverage.

I'm not saying that LSU can't or won't dominate the game; I'm just suggesting you rethink the "easy money" aspect of that line.
 
Cratylus said:
I'd be careful with that one...

1. It's essentially a home game for UGA since the game is in Atlanta.

2. While LSU's margin of victory this year is a gawdy 26.6 ppg, against opponents that are currently ranked it drops to just 7.3 ppg. In other words, they've been really, really good this season, but they've been in some dog fights against tougher teams.

3. LSU's defense is still questionable despite drubbing the greatest 5-loss team in the history of college football on Saturday. They gave up 38 to a now 7-5 Texas team, 38 to Vandy (yes, THAT Vandy) and 37 to Ole Miss.

4. Georgia has an elite defense this year. They haven't given up more than 20 points in any game (they're #2 in the nation in scoring defense and #4 in total defense), allowing only 186.0 passing yards per game. While they haven't faced a quarterback like Burrow, they have shown the ability to limit long passing plays - they only allow 1.5 completions per game of over 30 yards. Which means, Burrow will need to rely on short and medium level routes... which plays right into UGA's strength - their linebacking corps. UGA typically plays a 3-4, and three of the four LBs (Ojulari, Crowder and Rice) are borderline elite, possess outstanding speed and are very effective in coverage.

I'm not saying that LSU can't or won't dominate the game; I'm just suggesting you rethink the "easy money" aspect of that line.
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Excellent, thank you. I’ve been attached to that South Carolina loss but looking at the numbers it looks like UGA executes the run rather well also; you’d have to think they want to lean on the offense a bit to minimize Burrow’s “at-bats.”

I’d like to throw cash on one of the conference games, just not sure what yet. Thanks for making my gears turn.
 
Last line I saw for the B1G CCG was Ohio State -16.5 with an over/under of 56. I'm not a betting man, but that seems low to me given how effectively we shut them down earlier in the season. I mean, it was a 31-point win... has Wisconsin made a net improvement of 2+ touchdowns over how much the Buckeyes have improved over the course of the last five and a half weeks? They're not playing in the Shoe this time around, but still... I'm just not seeing how Wiscy is going to keep it that close. The O/U and that line gives a predicted final score of roughly Ohio State 36 - Wisconsin 20. That doesn't seem right to me.

But again, I don't wager on sports. So don't take this as advice on how to gamble your money. It's just another observation to think about.
 
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Cratylus said:
I'd be careful with that one...

1. It's essentially a home game for UGA since the game is in Atlanta.

2. While LSU's margin of victory this year is a gawdy 26.6 ppg, against opponents that are currently ranked it drops to just 7.3 ppg. In other words, they've been really, really good this season, but they've been in some dog fights against tougher teams.

3. LSU's defense is still questionable despite drubbing the greatest 5-loss team in the history of college football on Saturday. They gave up 38 to a now 7-5 Texas team, 38 to Vandy (yes, THAT Vandy) and 37 to Ole Miss.

4. Georgia has an elite defense this year. They haven't given up more than 20 points in any game (they're #2 in the nation in scoring defense and #4 in total defense), allowing only 186.0 passing yards per game. While they haven't faced a quarterback like Burrow, they have shown the ability to limit long passing plays - they only allow 1.5 completions per game of over 30 yards. Which means, Burrow will need to rely on short and medium level routes... which plays right into UGA's strength - their linebacking corps. UGA typically plays a 3-4, and three of the four LBs (Ojulari, Crowder and Rice) are borderline elite, possess outstanding speed and are very effective in coverage.

I'm not saying that LSU can't or won't dominate the game; I'm just suggesting you rethink the "easy money" aspect of that line.
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I'm sorry this clearly undervalued their margin against top 10 Texas A&M.
 

Guess we'll have another year of fake stories about Urban going to USC.
 
USC actively sabotaging themselves has been great for everyone. Long live the Clay Helton era.
 
USC just got a new AD. I can see the logic in punting this decision another year. They were 1 game away from winning the Pac12 South, and it isn't like UCLA is making up ground very quickly. If the AD sent out feelers and didn't like the responses, waiting another year and trying again isn't the worst idea.
 
Klatt made a sensible point that USC has forked our a ridiculous amount of cash in lawsuits and some other things. Can’t imagine they’re super excited about paying for a buyout then trying to pay Urban top dollar — not to mention the risk that come so with urban in a social sense.
 
col63onel said:
USC just got a new AD. I can see the logic in punting this decision another year. They were 1 game away from winning the Pac12 South, and it isn't like UCLA is making up ground very quickly. If the AD sent out feelers and didn't like the responses, waiting another year and trying again isn't the worst idea.
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Well said. There might be more fundamental / foundation problems that need to be corrected "behind the scenes" before installing a new head football coach. Otherwise the next guy could struggle just as much..

It makes me wonder if that "pay for getting kids accepted into the school" has a few other connections into the athletic department that needs to be handled..
 
In general, I hate the concept of conference championship losers getting a pass into the playoffs. This year, people are arguing that as many as three teams can/should get into the playoff regardless of this weekend's results. This is massive bullshit to me and this year it's especially dumb.

Here are the top 8 teams. All of them are playing in conference title games this weekend. Only one has 2 losses and we've never seen a G5 team nor a 2-loss team make the playoffs before, so these are easily the only teams with a shot.

1) Ohio State
2) LSU
3) Clemson
4) Georgia
5) Utah
6) Oklahoma
7) Baylor
8) Wisconsin

This is a gift to the committee and they will probably fuck it up (IMO) by not treating these conference title games as de facto play-ins. Nobody should be able to LOSE a conference title game, a postseason game, and continue their playoff journey. If Georgia beats LSU, BOOM, we saw that playoff game, LSU should be out. Why would we put them back into the mix when they JUST LOST TO A PLAYOFF TEAM? Ohio State gets upset by Wisconsin? A little less fair to leave them out but maybe don't lose to Wisconsin when it matters. Clemson should absolutely be out if they can't even beat a fake-ranked Virginia.

Baylor likely needs some chaos this weekend to get in even with a win and that's bogus. They're only loss could be avenged this weekend and they could STILL be sitting out because LSU lost to Georgia to slide to a free 4th place? Winning this weekend shouldn't guarantee a slot, but losing should mean you're done. Give other teams a chance, you blew it.
 
I don’t necessarily take issue with a non-conf champ getting in per se, but Georgia has an absolutely horrific loss and for some reason has faced no consequence as a result of it. Like, it wasn’t some good team to whom they lost; they lost at home to a team which is going to finish with a losing record and was typically blown out by every good team it faced.

I’m not saying they’re the only one; Utah lost to a third string quarterback on a 4-loss team. OU hasn’t looked super great down the stretch so perhaps the logic is more of a process of elimination.
 
The whole reason we only have a 4 team playoff is that this week is basically a first round play-in.
For people that want an 8 team playoff..That is whats happening right now.

The top 8 teams are all playing each other.
Except Clemson who is slumming their way into the playoffs.

Replaying LSU and Georgia would be monumentally boring.

Anyone who loses should be OUT.
 
Yeah, unless Utah roars back and wins convincingly, the door is going to be very, very open for the Big 12 champion.
 
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