2019 Series #43 | Indians @ Tigers | August 27th, 28th, and 29th

[Derek]

I'll probably get roasted by someone more knowledgeable for this one, but I'm not so sure Civale's stuff is significantly behind Bieber's when he came up. You often don't need to throw 98 or have ridiculous secondary stuff to be a quality pitcher.

I again, am uninformed here and have no pitch info to back it up, but Bieber's stuff and control reminds me of like a righty version of Cliff Lee. I don't see why Civale's absolute ceiling couldn't be something close to Kluber. He probably won't because I don't think his secondary stuff is there, and despite his low K/BB ratio, he had some ugly struggles in the first few starts with falling behind almost every hitter. But if he can keep "good Civale" going where he's working ahead in the count and keeping hitters off balance? The kid can be a nice quality starter.

But now I'm just talking out my ass, so I'll let someone with a bit more knowledge chip in.

Civale this year - 8.4% swings and misses (would rank 93rd out of 106 pitchers with 100+ innings this year)
Bieber last year - 11.4% (would rank 38th this year)
Kluber across 2011/12 - 11% (would rank 43rd)

 

[PIP]

But seriously.... it’s the Tigers

 

[Urban]

Civale this year - 8.4% swings and misses (would rank 93rd out of 106 pitchers with 100+ innings this year)
Bieber last year - 11.4% (would rank 38th this year)
Kluber across 2011/12 - 11% (would rank 43rd)

I think this really comes down to his slider not generating any swings and misses. The league average whiff rate for a slider is about 17%. Civale is only generating 6.5% swing and miss with only a 26.2% chase rate.

Career numbers for the rest of the staff (and Bauer)

Cookie- 25.5%
Bieber 24.2%
Kluber- 23.1%
Clevinger- 19.9%
Plesac- 16.7%
Bauer- 15.7% (19.5% since 2017)

 

[Lee]

Civale this year - 8.4% swings and misses (would rank 93rd out of 106 pitchers with 100+ innings this year)
Bieber last year - 11.4% (would rank 38th this year)
Kluber across 2011/12 - 11% (would rank 43rd)

So what is your take on Civale? How has he been this good with no real strike out pitch? Does Perez call that good of a game maybe?

 

[Derek]

So what is your take on Civale? How has he been this good with no real strike out pitch? Does Perez call that good of a game maybe?

There’s definitely some luck involved, but some guys are just a little better at limiting hard hits than others.

He profiles similarly to Tanner Roark right now, who has carved out a very solid career.

 

[Lee]

There’s definitely some luck involved, but some guys are just a little better at limiting hard hits than others.

He profiles similarly to Tanner Roark right now, who has carved out a very solid career.

So very solid 3rd starter level?

On a side note, who fucking names their kid Tanner?

 

[Derek]

So very solid 3rd starter level?

On a side note, who fucking names their kid Tanner?

I guess at his best he's been a 3rd starter, maybe slightly better, but mostly a reliable back end guy. Roark has also bounced to the pen a couple times throughout his career.

 

[Arketebel]

On a side note, who fucking names their kid Tanner?

Mr. Boyle. His kid was on my little league team and had a helluva temper.

 

[The Oi]

We were gonna name our second son Tanner Lee Jigglesworth but now that this was posted...

Ugh.

 

[Kevalier]

So what is your take on Civale? How has he been this good with no real strike out pitch? Does Perez call that good of a game maybe?

Civale’s cutter is already a wipe out pitch for him.

 

[Derek]

Civale’s cutter is already a wipe out pitch for him.

wipe out is a little hyperbolic, it's been a good pitch, but nothing special so far.

 

[Urban]

Below is a link to an article on Civale from 2 weeks ago.

Aaron Civale and the Competitive Advantage

The Cleveland Indians have a type, and Aaron Civale embodies it.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Interestingly enough, he is only throwing his curveball 8% of time and his changeup 8% of the time. As mentioned in the article, his curve spin is in the 95th percentile and his changeup is his only pitch really developing swing and miss. Imagine we see much more of his curve next season.

To sum up his success, despite no missing many bats, it comes down to him having really good command for all of his pitches and his pitches have great late movement. Also worth noting that he's probably been a bit lucky so far, he has a good defense behind him, and there is not much tape on him

 

[Joe Charboneau]

Stuff-wise, does Clevinger remind anyone of a younger Verlander?

 

[bushwick_bill]

Tampa just went up on the Astros. This series coming up is going to be wild.

 

[NorthCoastBias]

Tampa just went up on the Astros. This series coming up is going to be wild.

It’s the fourth inning.