2020 NBA Draft

[Nathan S]

I go back to the two man game Love and Korver developed in the half court in 2017 and 2018. With his frame, knowing how to set a pick, come off picks, and pass gets you pretty far in half court sets. Dribbling the air out of the ball is overrated. When his three point percentage was floating around 40% halfway through the Israeli League, I saw Deni as a great fit for the sets Steve Kerr likes to use. The key will be his ability to consistently hit threes while closely guarded. I don't worry too much about the rest, especially at #5.

In a draft like this, maybe you can draft a guy at #5 with the understanding that his ceiling is probably an efficient 3rd option offensively. Not the worst thing in the world, but I think it's a bit too conservative.

Who knows. Maybe in theory if he matched up against a strong SF all the time then he would perhaps have major diffculties. But optimally, he is a guy that should be played against players he has physical advantage against. So basically either SGs or PFs/C. Considering his ability to create offense from the post(assisting and scoring), I like his chances of being quite dominant against SGs in the post..

Against PFs/C he has enough natural talent and athletic advantage to create some kind of advantage offensively as the ball handler. I'm not saying that he will be able to produce above average .PPP, but with his skillset and physical tools, I do see Deni able to create defensive breakdowns and openings.

Some may consider him a tweener, but I view his size as a mismatch potential to make him better than he really is. I do think he will be able to defend 2-5 better than the opposition will be able to defend him and the Cavs as a team.

I do see him as a guy who can take advantage of some mismatches. I just see him as a primarily off-ball player, at his best. Doesn't preclude him from being a solid starter on a good team, but I think he'd look best next to a PG and SG who are are adept offensive creators. People are talking like he'll develop into a point forward who you can just surround with shooters and let him run the show...that just isn't in the cards, IMO. Not the kind of player he is.

 

[MirORich]

I am not calling Okoro, Vassell or some 2-3 year college wing Kawhi or Paul George, but I continue to be flabbergasted at how Kawhi, PG13, Klay, Booker, Hayward, even lesser guys like Oubre, Warren, and a few other wings, all went between 11-15ish between 2010-2015

Meanwhile, the majority of wings drafted inside the top10 during that same time have been busts or lesser players: Stanley johnson, Justice Winslow, Wiggins, Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, Barnes, MKG

What is it about bigger SG and SFs that is so hard to project? Or were these just anomalies?

 

[Los216]

In a draft like this, maybe you can draft a guy at #5 with the understanding that his ceiling is probably an efficient 3rd option offensively. Not the worst thing in the world, but I think it's a bit too conservative.



I do see him as a guy who can take advantage of some mismatches. I just see him as a primarily off-ball player, at his best. Doesn't preclude him from being a solid starter on a good team, but I think he'd look best next to a PG and SG who are are adept offensive creators. People are talking like he'll develop into a point forward who you can just surround with shooters and let him run the show...that just isn't in the cards, IMO. Not the kind of player he is.

Who are the other options in this draft that have an efficient 3rd option ceiling? I don’t think it’s that many.

I think Deni would look good playing between Kevin Love and Kevin Porter Jr btw.

 

[Los216]

In a draft like this, maybe you can draft a guy at #5 with the understanding that his ceiling is probably an efficient 3rd option offensively. Not the worst thing in the world, but I think it's a bit too conservative.



I do see him as a guy who can take advantage of some mismatches. I just see him as a primarily off-ball player, at his best. Doesn't preclude him from being a solid starter on a good team, but I think he'd look best next to a PG and SG who are are adept offensive creators. People are talking like he'll develop into a point forward who you can just surround with shooters and let him run the show...that just isn't in the cards, IMO. Not the kind of player he is.

Who are the other options in this draft who have a efficient 3rd option ceiling. I don’t see many personally.

I also think Deni would look really good playing between Kevin Love and Kevin Porter Jr.

 

[Nathan S]

Who are the other options in this draft that have an efficient 3rd option ceiling? I don’t think it’s that many.

I think Deni would look good playing between Kevin Love and Kevin Porter Jr btw.

I agree it's not many. I think you could make a very good case that Deni is better within that role than any other player in the draft. I don't dislike him or think he'll bust, I just think he's a classic high floor low ceiling guy and that's not what I'm looking for at #5.

 

[Randolphkeys]

People are talking like he'll develop into a point forward who you can just surround with shooters and let him run the show.

Nathan, I know you have your system and you stand by it, but this might be a time where the way you grade college athletes matched up against their peers doesn't adjust enough for the level of competition Deni faced in the Israeli League with adults in their prime.

Criticisms of Deni that I feel are legit:

- Doesn't have the burst to separate easily once he reaches the NBA.
- His wingspan is reportedly on the shorter side - 6'9 - which will limit his switches onto centers.
- When teams made taking his offense away as their #1 defensive priority at the Israeli League level, his mechanics regressed on close outs.

However, some of the knocks being held against him have been a bit misleading. This guy is in the conversation for best European product of his generation outside of Luka. He has been the #1 offensive option and won against his peers. His awareness and vision as a passer are pretty special. His perimeter offense is a complete package when he doesn't get in his own head as a shooter. Can play the Pick and Roll at a very good level as the ball handler, since he can either shoot, drive, or pass to the rolling big. On defense, his versatility from two through four is rare. There's just a lot to like for a 6'9 athlete, even if from the neck up he looks like a member of Cobra Kai instead of a basketball player.

 

[Los216]

I am not calling Okoro, Vassell or some 2-3 year college wing Kawhi or Paul George, but I continue to be flabbergasted at how Kawhi, PG13, Klay, Booker, Hayward, even lesser guys like Oubre, Warren, and a few other wings, all went between 11-15ish between 2010-2015

Meanwhile, the majority of wings drafted inside the top10 during that same time have been busts or lesser players: Stanley johnson, Justice Winslow, Wiggins, Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, Barnes, MKG

What is it about bigger SG and SFs that is so hard to project? Or were these just anomalies?

That first group of guys all had high floors. I think Wiggins and Barnes had high floors too. The rest of those guys were bust. Some of them had very obvious deficiencies and I remember a lot of groupthink taking over with a few of them. Especially Justice Winslow. he had no business being drafted that high but he had the machine behind him.

Wiggins didn’t live up to expectations but he’s not a bust. I think Harrison Barnes actually ended up being exactly what most people thought he would be. An average SF who can have his moments. Nothing sexy but he’s steady. The rest of those dudes were bust though that had no business being drafted that high. A lot of them had too much hype behind them. Like how MKG was a non shooting factor but somehow hard wok and scrappy ness and good defense was enough to overcome that. It wasn’t but the hype was still there.

Even Turner was a solid player with a good resume but he still shouldn’t have been picked as high as he was. Still a lottery talent though. Stanley Johnson was drafted because teams started believe in that you could just take dudes with NBA bodies and make them Kawhi Leonard lol.

 

[Los216]

I agree it's not many. I think you could make a very good case that Deni is better within that role than any other player in the draft. I don't dislike him or think he'll bust, I just think he's a classic high floor low ceiling guy and that's not what I'm looking for at #5.

This draft probably doesn’t have what you’re looking for at #5.

 

[Nathan S]

Nathan, I know you have your system and you stand by it, but this might be a time where the way you grade college athletes matched up against their peers doesn't adjust enough for the level of competition Deni faced in the Israeli League with adults in their prime.

Criticisms of Deni that I feel are legit:

- Doesn't have the burst to separate easily once he reaches the NBA.
- His wingspan is reportedly on the shorter side - 6'9 - which will limit his switches onto centers.
- When teams made taking his offense away as their #1 defensive priority at the Israeli League level, his mechanics regressed on close outs.

However, some of the knocks being held against him have been a bit misleading. This guy is in the conversation for best European product of his generation outside of Luka. He has been the #1 offensive option and won against his peers. His awareness and vision as a passer are pretty special. His perimeter offense is a complete package when he doesn't get in his own head as a shooter. Can play the Pick and Roll at a very good level as the ball handler, since he can either shoot, drive, or pass to the rolling big. On defense, his versatility from two through four is rare. There's just a lot to like for a 6'9 athlete, even if from the neck up he looks like a member of Cobra Kai instead of a basketball player.

I've never been one to downplay the level of competition overseas (quite the opposite in fact). The fact that he was able to mesh with pro athletes and be a key part of a championship team is special. But I feel that, subjectively and objectively, he's a guy who "fits in" rather than "stands out." To illustrate, consider the following:

Those are the assist:TO (per 40) numbers for all of Maccabi's main guys in Israeli league play. Something that stands out is that their perimeter players, (with the exception of Scottie), averaged around 4 assists per 40. The offense they ran required all perimeter players to be good passers, and Deni fit the bill. But he was typically one of three or even four players on the court at a given time who shared offensive creation duties. He makes good plays within the offense, but he's not the guy who makes the offense go.

I think he'll thrive in a similar role in the NBA, given the opportunity, and that combined with his defense (I'm pretty bullish on his defense) should make him a net positive. But asking him to run the pick&roll, for instance, where he has to shoot off the dribble, finish over length, or make a quick decision in traffic? I don't think that's gonna fly in the NBA.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Deni is the most seasoned prospect at the top of this draft. He’s a legit wing. No questions about his size, strength, and athleticism. He has a good floor game. Who are the players in this draft that you feel more comfortable taking at #5?

Who is in the top 10 that’s ready to play from day one? Deni is a day one starter.

Deni has a questionable shot.

I think Okongwu may be the most NBA ready guy in this draft. He looks to be able to contribute immediately as sort of a better offensive version of TT.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I've never been one to downplay the level of competition overseas (quite the opposite in fact). The fact that he was able to mesh with pro athletes and be a key part of a championship team is special. But I feel that, subjectively and objectively, he's a guy who "fits in" rather than "stands out." To illustrate, consider the following:

Those are the assist:TO (per 40) numbers for all of Maccabi's main guys in Israeli league play. Something that stands out is that their perimeter players, (with the exception of Scottie), averaged around 4 assists per 40. The offense they ran required all perimeter players to be good passers, and Deni fit the bill. But he was typically one of three or even four players on the court at a given time who shared offensive creation duties. He makes good plays within the offense, but he's not the guy who makes the offense go.

I think he'll thrive in a similar role in the NBA, given the opportunity, and that combined with his defense (I'm pretty bullish on his defense) should make him a net positive. But asking him to run the pick&roll, for instance, where he has to shoot off the dribble, finish over length, or make a quick decision in traffic? I don't think that's gonna fly in the NBA.

And again, I know you stand by your system that examines hard data. I feel like this is a case where there is more to the story. I don't disagree with your assessment of the Tel Aviv offense, but instead that is a superior system to develop a young player to make the right basketball play. Colleges are putting the ball in their NBA level talent's hands at a high usage and surrounding them with defenders and shooters. That isn't a system, that is dealing with a broken development program for prospects because they have a foot out the door as soon as they enter campus.

Again, we are talking about the youngest MVP in a high level European league's history as being unable to make an offense go?

Deni Avdija becomes youngest MVP in Israeli League history

Deni Avdija concludes the season as the top player in Israel.

www.eurohoops.net

I don't think he is the Israeli LeBron James or anything, but he is a well developed small forward who will likely start for a decade. His swing skill that can bump him from "solid starter" to "elite" is that three point stroke, and the Cavs turned around Sexton's three stroke in less than two seasons.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I don't think he is the Israeli LeBron James or anything, but he is a well developed small forward who will likely start for a decade. His swing skill that can bump him from "solid starter" to "elite" is that three point stroke, and the Cavs turned around Sexton's three stroke in less than two seasons.

I just hate using Sexton as an example for improvement by other players, and there are other guys drafted by the Cavs who haven't show improvement. So I don't know if it is elite instruction, or just Sexton being a freakish gym rat.

 

[Nathan S]

And again, I know you stand by your system that examines hard data. I feel like this is a case where there is more to the story. I don't disagree with your assessment of the Tel Aviv offense, but instead that is a superior system to develop a young player to make the right basketball play.

Again, we are talking about the youngest MVP in a high level European league's history as being unable to make an offense go?

Deni Avdija becomes youngest MVP in Israeli League history

Deni Avdija concludes the season as the top player in Israel.

www.eurohoops.net

I don't think he is the Israeli LeBron James or anything, but he is a well developed small forward who will likely start for a decade. His swing skill that can bump him from "solid starter" to "elite" is that three point stroke, and the Cavs turned around Sexton's three stroke in less than two seasons.

It makes it sound worse than it is to say he's "unable" to make the offense go. More so, Maccabi just had a lot of very solid players, and generally didn't miss a beat when they had to sub Deni or anyone else out. That's how the offense was designed, and it worked to perfection.

With a great 3-point shot he could be elite, but I don't think the comparison with Sexton is very fair. Sexton was always a great shooter, then got the yips for a couple months as a rookie, then was a great shooter again. Deni has always been a streaky shooter with limited ability to shoot off the dribble. Maybe he's among the 1-in-10 prospects who improves dramatically as a shooter in the NBA, but it's a shot in the dark.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Nathan, I know you have your system and you stand by it, but this might be a time where the way you grade college athletes matched up against their peers doesn't adjust enough for the level of competition Deni faced in the Israeli League with adults in their prime.

Criticisms of Deni that I feel are legit:

- Doesn't have the burst to separate easily once he reaches the NBA.
- His wingspan is reportedly on the shorter side - 6'9 - which will limit his switches onto centers.
- When teams made taking his offense away as their #1 defensive priority at the Israeli League level, his mechanics regressed on close outs.

However, some of the knocks being held against him have been a bit misleading. This guy is in the conversation for best European product of his generation outside of Luka. He has been the #1 offensive option and won against his peers. His awareness and vision as a passer are pretty special. His perimeter offense is a complete package when he doesn't get in his own head as a shooter. Can play the Pick and Roll at a very good level as the ball handler, since he can either shoot, drive, or pass to the rolling big. On defense, his versatility from two through four is rare. There's just a lot to like for a 6'9 athlete, even if from the neck up he looks like a member of Cobra Kai instead of a basketball player.

I honestly think the truth is somewhere in the middle. I don't love Deni but really think his offensive plusses are being largely overblown, as it pertains to NBA production.

Granted, my specialty (if I even have one), is not European scouting.......but I have yet to see anyone say he is a special passer. I see him most often described as more of a tactician......and his film looks like a guy who has plus IQ, with the ability to create passing lanes with his length. That type of creation gets harder at the NBA level and I would be concerned that his lack of wiggle with the ball is really going to make his on the ball value dip considerably.

I've seen things to like defensively......especially his ability to guard bigger players (as some modern 4 type potential) but I really think he's someone who has such a wide range of outcomes. I could see him becoming a really interesting 4 who can handle......or I could also see him just being a floor spacer who's a solid defender. And if I'm getting the latter, I'd much rather have a player like Vassell, who is more of a proven high level shooter.

I personally think Deni is the one player in the top 10 that everyone can be wrong on......and relative to the other choices I see there, I personally would pass on him. Does that mean I will be right? I mean, who the hell knows.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I think he can defend 4's, but how does he function in the paint offensively? Bam can pass and shoot a little, but his bread and butter is grabbing offensive rebounds and drawing fouls in the paint. Those are big weaknesses for Deni, in contrast. He can space the floor, which is good, but he can't put pressure on the defense like Bam can. Everything points to him being a low-usage (but efficient) floor spacer 3/4 in the NBA, IMO.

Deni seems like someone who is active and smart enough to produce OREB if he was played as a 4.....especially seeing his activity on the defensive glass. It looks like he gets stuck on the perimeter often in their offense, so I would argue its' possibly a scheme thing over ability, just watching him rebound on the other end. He does have some interesting high post film too, where he is operating as more of a hub......which seems promising to me as a change up but who knows.

Drawing fouls is certainly something Deni needs to improve but that is also why I would really push a team to try him at the 4. It is slower, clunkier players than the 3 and tweeners...... and relative to his defensive positioning, it would allow him to defensive rebound and push.......where he does look like he could really stand out in transition.

Again, I could be wrong.....but I see a floor game that can work well at the 4.....because I do think, skill wise, he would be able to apply pressure to 4's.......I just struggle to see how a downhill type player, who doesn't have elite passing or elite athleticism is going to consistently score / create on wings.