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2020 NBA Draft

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My statistical rankings like 3-point volume, free throw volume, offensive rebounds, steals, and assist:TO ratio (in no particular order) based on a statistical regression on players drafted roughly 10-20 years ago. So Deni's middling 3-point percentage isn't what hurts him at that point in my analysis (free throw volume and offensive rebounds are bigger issues). I do try to take more of a critical look at shooting efficiency when I make my final rankings.

Why is Nesmith ranked so low on your board?
 
Why is Nesmith ranked so low on your board?

Assist:TO numbers and offensive rebound rate are among the worst of all wings in this class. Then I docked him further for an extremely weak strength of schedule.
 
WHat's his best and worst outcome in our opinion?

Best: Poor man's Klay Thompson. Limited all-around game, but a great shooter and good enough to hang on defense in spite of meh physical tools.

Worst: Average shooter, lack of athleticism exposed, bounces back and forth between 10-day contracts and occasional D-League scoring outbursts.
 
What does everyone think the realistic ceiling of Wiseman and Okorgwa are? I've seen alot of Drummond and TT on other site for them as comparisons for each respectively.

How much would either of them really move the needle for the Cavs? Neither TT or Drummond really created a winning formula for this team. Sexton played better with TT on the floor but that seem to be TT using his experience to free up space for Sexton to operate.
 
What does everyone think the realistic ceiling of Wiseman and Okongwu are? I've seen alot of Drummond and TT on other site for them as comparisons for each respectively.

Wiseman is a riddle hidden in a mystery because of such little exposure. Nobody should be making comparisons yet because he hasn't shown a face-up game or passing skills, which he will need. He's a gamble but the type of gamble which can pay off to Joel Embiid levels.

Okongwu is going to piss people off his first year because he has no face-up game or jump shot outside of the paint. He will require patience but at pick #5, there will be a huge push against him as a pick because players who are more NBA ready will put up better numbers and play more minutes until he is properly developed.

AAU ball is terrible, TLDR.
 
What does everyone think the realistic ceiling of Wiseman and Okorgwa are? I've seen alot of Drummond and TT on other site for them as comparisons for each respectively.

How much would either of them really move the needle for the Cavs? Neither TT or Drummond really created a winning formula for this team. Sexton played better with TT on the floor but that seem to be TT using his experience to free up space for Sexton to operate.

Wiseman ceiling is Dwight Howard mix with a little David Robinson.
 
Okongwu is going to piss people off his first year because he has no face-up game or jump shot outside of the paint.

Lets assume this is true (I think it may not but we can just argue the point here).........Why does he need that to produce?

His value on offense is as a screen setter, rim runner. He flashes some other things but his gravity in the half court, is in his rolls to the basket.....because he is so good at navigating the wash in the paint and catching anything that is in the vicinity.

He has the potential to be a high post initiator but all of that is gravy at this point. He can provide value simply by being a solid defender and a guy who can finish on offense. I don't see why he can't do that immediately. Will he be a net positive, maybe not.....but I would imagine he can play minutes in a rotation from day 1.
 
Lets assume this is true (I think it may not but we can just argue the point here).........Why does he need that to produce?

Because when he faced a legit NBA prospect in Isaiah Stewart of Washington, he arguably lost the matchup.


Not only did he struggle as a defender against a team with a legit big, he became rattled offensively, shooting a terrible percentage and turning the ball over.

The highlights of this matchup are available, don't really want to promote one bad day though. It's just magnified in a big man matchup compared to guard matchups.

He will have to provide more against legit NBA talent once he is a pro.
 
Because when he faced a legit NBA prospect in Isaiah Stewart of Washington, he arguably lost the matchup.


Not only did he struggle as a defender against a team with a legit big, he became rattled offensively, shooting a terrible percentage and turning the ball over.

The highlights of this matchup are available, don't really want to promote one bad day though. It's just magnified in a big man matchup compared to guard matchups.

He will have to provide more against legit NBA talent once he is a pro.

Keys, this is honestly a weak rebuttal to a point you brought up. Picking a single game to refute a point.

Okungwu also played in games against other NBA prospects in this year's draft.......and guys who are likely to be 1st round picks:

Tyler Bey

32 MIN, 21 PTS, 5 REB, 4 STL, 1 BLK on 10-13 from the field
31 MIN, 11 PTS, 10 REB on 3-8 from the field

Zeke Nnaji

37 MIN, 23 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST, 2 STL, 2 BLK on 7-11 from the field
35 MIN, 11 PTS, 10 REB, 1 STL, 3 BLK on 3-7 from the field

So sure, lets throw in the Washington game......so his 5 games against NBA bigs:

15 PTS, 8 REB, 2 STL, 2 BLK on 27-52 from the field (52%).

His PER 36 vs NBA bigs in this draft:

16 PTS, 9 REB, 2 STL, 2 BLK on 27-52 from the field (52%).

I'd love to see what other guys in this draft go for 16/9/2/2 in a per 36 (5) game sample against other NBA bigs. The games against Nnaji seem like a good litmus test.....going against a longer, talented guy. Nnaji is listed at 6'11", 240 and Okongwu was just throwing him around in a few of those clips. Is he perfect? I mean, no.....but using a single game is silly.


 
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I'm sorry, but a top5 big man without passing ability is a big no no to me. Especially when the big man is one who relies on physical advantage and one that will have to develop post ability in order to take advantage of his physical tools. Embiid who's bigger, stronger and has much more diverse skillset even struggles with double teams out of the post. It has become quite hard to attack from the post, especially if you can' pass.

Wiseman currently lacks post moves and a face up game. In todays game you gotta be able to attack quickly before the defense reacts, and how is he going to do that without having the necccesary passing, face up game or post moves? Being strong is not enough, and can he get a deep deep seal against starting centers to mitigate that?
 
I'm sorry, but a top5 big man without passing ability is a big no no to me. Especially when the big man is one who relies on physical advantage and one that will have to develop post ability in order to take advantage of his physical tools. Embiid who's bigger, stronger and has much more diverse skillset even struggles with double teams out of the post. It has become quite hard to attack from the post, especially if you can' pass.

Wiseman currently lacks post moves and a face up game. In todays game you gotta be able to attack quickly before the defense reacts, and how is he going to do that without having the necccesary passing, face up game or post moves? Being strong is not enough, and can he get a deep deep seal against starting centers to mitigate that?

He wouldn't. He wouldn't get post touches. He'd be a screen setter / roller.
 

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