2020 NBA Draft

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

What about Jalen Smith?

 

[Nathan S]

Haha, I hear you. I pulled in about 25 guys I have seen at least casually mentioned somewhere......that probably constitute players 55-80 or so, out of the 2020 pool. Of those added 25 guys, he was the only one that stood out, as a profile that was interestingly impactful. Some others worth taking a flyer on I guess.....but Merrill was the only one who didn't have an obviously bad weakness that mike sink him and produced at a plus level.....even through an age penalty. And he also had some big games against power 5 schools.

I'd imagine he's just a reserve guard ceiling type but one with an even, all-around game.......at the end of the draft, he seems like he's worth taking a chance on, relative to what I see in other late round guys this year. My stuff likes Merrill more than Winston for what it is worth.

My stuff also likes Merrill over Winston (-2.8) thanks to Winston's horrible defense. I'd ranked them similarly more because, well, I've actually seen Winston on mocks and have watched him play, haha.

Low offensive rebounds were the one red flag that hurt him most statistically.

We'd previously talked about Malachi Flynn, right? How does your rater like him again?

 

[Nathan S]

What about Jalen Smith?

Only thing that really hurts him is poor assist:TO numbers. Otherwise, everything points to him being a solid defensive big who can score from all parts of the floor which is...a pretty valuable type of player. Surprised he doesn't get more buzz as a potential lottery guy, though I'd be hesitant to take him that high on account of the aforementioned assist:TO issue.

 

[I'mWithDan]

What about Jalen Smith?

All the data I see on Smith is positive. Nathan mentioned his low AST/TO numbers......but all the aggregate impact numbers I spit out really like him as a good starter type.

I am somewhat surprised he has seemingly so little momentum. I know there is some concern about his lateral movement but he's not a stiff. Seems like a guy a good team is going to take, who can immediately be plugged in to a rotation.

 

[Nathan S]

All the data I see on Smith is positive. Nathan mentioned his low AST/TO numbers......but all the aggregate impact numbers I spit out really like him as a good starter type.

I am somewhat surprised he has seemingly so little momentum. I know there is some concern about his lateral movement but he's not a stiff. Seems like a guy a good team is going to take, who can immediately be plugged in to a rotation.

Did you catch either of his games against Michigan State? Smith-Tillman was one of those matchups where you can tell you're watching two future NBA bigs go at it.

 

[JJ_PR]

If Okoro is gonna be in consideration for the 5th pick, why not Patrick Williams instead? He's got good size for the 3 & is a good offensive player as well.

 

[Alec]

Nathan, who are some prospects in recent years that really outperformed your model?

 

[JJ_PR]

I have a feeling Achiuwa is gonna get overlooked in the draft & fall to the second round. Teams are gonna look real stupid passing on a stretch 4 that can guard the perimeter.

My gut tells me that Wiseman will fall to #5, which would be my ideal scenerio in this draft. Players that could be taken ahead of him include Edwards, Ball, Avdija, Toppin & even Okongwu, amongst others.

 

[Derek]

I have a feeling Achiuwa is gonna get overlooked in the draft & fall to the second round. Teams are gonna look real stupid passing on a stretch 4 that can guard the perimeter.

My gut tells me that Wiseman will fall to #5, which would be my ideal scenerio in this draft. Players that could be taken ahead of him include Edwards, Ball, Avdija, Toppin & even Okongwu, amongst others.

What evidence is there that he's a stretch 4? His shooting numbers aren't good at all.

 

[Nathan S]

Nathan, who are some prospects in recent years that really outperformed your model?

In the last two years (in which I ran it on a lot of prospects because the Cavs had lottery picks) the guys who outperformed most are probably:

-Robert Williams, projected at -1.6
-Cameron Johnson, projected -1.5
-Brandon Clarke, projected -0.2

I also have a lot of prospects from ~10-20 years ago, and there things are more clear because guys have actually had time to develop (or not). Here's a spreadsheet with all of my draft ratings:
Note that my "historical" ratings only include players who actually ended up playing a significant number of NBA minutes. My ratings for 2018-2020, in contrast, are not filtered and include players who got injured, played extremely weak schedules, or played very few minutes, so a lot of random guys are in there.

 

[adam81king]

What evidence is there that he's a stretch 4? His shooting numbers aren't good at all.

I was gonna ask the same thing. If Thaddeus Young isn't even considered a stretch 4, I dude with *less* range certainly shouldn't be...

 

[I'mWithDan]

In the last two years (in which I ran it on a lot of prospects because the Cavs had lottery picks) the guys who outperformed most are probably:

-Robert Williams, projected at -1.6
-Cameron Johnson, projected -1.5
-Brandon Clarke, projected -0.2

I also have a lot of prospects from ~10-20 years ago, and there things are more clear because guys have actually had time to develop (or not). Here's a spreadsheet with all of my draft ratings:
Note that my "historical" ratings only include players who actually ended up playing a significant number of NBA minutes. My ratings for 2018-2020, in contrast, are not filtered and include players who got injured, played extremely weak schedules, or played very few minutes, so a lot of random guys are in there.

How has your stuff done with athletic scoring guard types? That is the one blindspot in the calculation I have......where guys like Rose, Westbrook, Fox were really undervalued relative to their Position. Rose still was rated well......but not the elite level prospect he was. Westbrook and Fox looked like huge projects out of college......even accounting for measurables.

 

[Nathan S]

How has your stuff done with athletic scoring guard types? That is the one blindspot in the calculation I have......where guys like Rose, Westbrook, Fox were really undervalued relative to their Position. Rose still was rated well......but not the elite level prospect he was. Westbrook and Fox looked like huge projects out of college......even accounting for measurables.

Don't have Fox...Rose and Westbrook were undervalued at +2.1 and +1.9, but that's still quite a bit better than Edwards this year, for instance (+0.6).

Easily the worst projection I have is Bledsoe at...-5.0

 

[narbar32]

In the last two years (in which I ran it on a lot of prospects because the Cavs had lottery picks) the guys who outperformed most are probably:

-Robert Williams, projected at -1.6
-Cameron Johnson, projected -1.5
-Brandon Clarke, projected -0.2

I also have a lot of prospects from ~10-20 years ago, and there things are more clear because guys have actually had time to develop (or not). Here's a spreadsheet with all of my draft ratings:
Note that my "historical" ratings only include players who actually ended up playing a significant number of NBA minutes. My ratings for 2018-2020, in contrast, are not filtered and include players who got injured, played extremely weak schedules, or played very few minutes, so a lot of random guys are in there.

That settles it for me... Poku at 5!

I'm somehow joking and dead serious at the same time. Let's swing for the fences lol but seriously.

 

[Nathan S]

That settles it for me... Poku at 5!

I'm somehow joking and dead serious at the same time. Let's swing for the fences lol but seriously.

He's a guy who's both low minutes and weak strength of schedule, so I definitely wouldn't take that rating at face value. But at the same time, yeah, I totally agree that it makes a whole lot more sense to swing for the fences than to play it safe. Youngest guy in the draft, too.