2020 NBA Draft

[Bob_The_Cat]

I just don't really understand why Phoenix would want that? They're actually pretty close to a playoff team. Trading a wing (Oubre) who had a breakout season just to take Ball seems.... odd.. It's an obvious regression at least in the short term.

Ball is an extremely ball dominant guard. They already have a solid PG in Rubio who was 4th in the entire NBA in Assists last year... Adding a ball dominant young guard doesn't seem like the answer.

Phoenix is notoriously cheap. They already have Bridges on the roster and I don’t believe they’ll be willing to pay Oubre when they will also have to pay Aston soon as well.

Rubio only has two more years left. They could move him after this season if they want or just let his deal expire.

Getting Ball kicks the can down the road a bit. It also gives them a core of Ball, Bridges, Booker, Johnson, and Ayton, 4 of which would still be on rookie contracts. They’d have space for a max contract player (or two) in 2021 FA with all those guys under team control for the next several years. I’m not sure how you pass that up if I’m the Suns.

Suns might be close to being a playoff team, but adding Ball and then building in FA next year could make them a serious long-term contender. I don’t think that happens by holding onto Oubre.

 

[Los216]

If Ball is there at 5 the first call I’m making is to Phoenix. The trade I’d ask for is:

#5
Cedi
Exum

for

#10
Oubre
Diallo

At #10 you can pretty much take BPA. Maybe Okoro falls, Vassell, Halliburton, even Toppin might be worth considering at that point. I like that a whole lot more than staying put at #5. Phoenix is happy because they get Ball, Booker, and Ayton, plus they get Cedi who can come off the bench and offset the loss of Oubre.

Cavs could come out this with:

PG: Sexton, Garland
SG: Vassell, Porter, Windler
SF: Oubre, Porter
PF: Love, Nance
C: Drummond, Diallo

Would probably want to pick up a vet PG and another SF/PF. However, I think between Oubre, Porter, and Vassell they’d likely account for nearly all of the SF minutes as we’d still run a lot of lineups with Sexton and Garland on the floor together.

Anyway, I think it’s a pretty fair deal that would work out well for both sides.

No.

You can't trade down in the draft and hope that a group of players are there. 5 spots is too many spots to do that. What if none of those dudes you mentioned are even available at #10? Now you just traded your draft away for Kelly Oubre Jr.

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

No.

You can't trade down in the draft and hope that a group of players are there. 5 spots is too many spots to do that. What if none of those dudes you mentioned are even available at #10? Now you just traded your draft away for Kelly Oubre Jr.

Yes, you can. That’s literally how almost all trades are made. It’s risk vs reward.

Either way, if we traded for Oubre I’d be pretty happy with any of these guys at 10:

Okoro
Haliburton
Vassell
Okongwu
Hayes
Nesmith
Toppin
Precious

One of those guys will be available at 10, and for the Cavs one of the above plus Oubre is way better than staying at 5 and keeping Cedi IMO.

 

[Los216]

Yes, you can. That’s literally how almost all trades are made. It’s risk vs reward.

Either way, if we traded for Oubre I’d be pretty happy with any of these guys at 10:

Okoro
Haliburton
Vassell
Okongwu
Hayes
Nesmith
Toppin
Precious

One of those guys will be available at 10, and for the Cavs one of the above plus Oubre is way better than staying at 5 and keeping Cedi.

That's not a sound execution of a plan though. That's not risk versus reward. That's just risk. You already robbed yourself of the reward when you traded quality value for quantity value.

 

[inliner311]

No.

You can't trade down in the draft and hope that a group of players are there. 5 spots is too many spots to do that. What if none of those dudes you mentioned are even available at #10? Now you just traded your draft away for Kelly Oubre Jr.

Its why you see most draft day trades only really moving up a couple spots. I agree that 5 spots creates too much uncertainty for return on value. When teams move up or down 2 or 3 spots they usually know they teams infront of them don't need the position/player they are targeting.

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

That's not a sound execution of a plan though. That's not risk versus reward. That's just risk. You already robbed yourself of the reward when you traded quality value for quantity value.

I guess if you’re trading out of some generational talent, but there just aren’t many guys in this draft that I value so highly that I HAVE to pick them at 5. No one truly stands out to me, and I’m of the belief that Ball would tell the Cavs he didn’t want to be in Cleveland. I’d take Wiseman at 5, but I’m not all that dead set on anyone else there.

Also need to keep in mind that Dan/the FO want to make the playoffs this year. Oubre and 10 would give us a better shot at that for sure. I’m not saying it’s the exact right move, but some of the decisions this offseason are going to be guided by trying to make the playoffs.

 

[Los216]

I guess if you’re trading out of some generational talent, but there just aren’t many guys in this draft that I value so highly that I HAVE to pick them at 5. No one truly stands out to me, and I’m of the belief that Ball would tell the Cavs he didn’t want to be in Cleveland. I’d take Wiseman at 5, but I’m not all that dead set on anyone else there.

Also need to keep in mind that Dan/the FO want to make the playoffs this year. Oubre and 10 would give us a better shot at that for sure. I’m not saying it’s the exact right move, but some of the decisions this offseason are going to be guided by trying to make the playoffs.

Making that trade you proposed goes completely against making the playoffs.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

That's not a sound execution of a plan though. That's not risk versus reward. That's just risk. You already robbed yourself of the reward when you traded quality value for quantity value.

He's likely valuing Oubre a lot more than do you (or I). If that's the case, then it is the sound execution of a plan even if we think it's the wrong plan. That being said, Oubre being a free agent at the end of the season kind of nixes the deal for me even if I thought Oubre himself was good value. You don't drop 5 spots and give up a player for a guy who 1) may leave at the end of the season, and/or 2) you could just try to sign as a free agent yourself at the end of the season without giving up anything.

I do think the biggest fan/pundit myth about the draft is that individual teams value a bunch of prospects more or less equally. That's why you see so many trades proposed in football/basketball along the lines of "let's pick up an extra pick, and then grab whichever one of these four guys is left on the board later." I think teams are much more likely to have stronger player preferences than just "whichever of these four guys are left."

 

[Cassity14]

Every year I think it's important to remind that rookies are, 99+% of the time, a net negative when it comes to wins and losses.

It stands to reason that if Dan has tasked the FO with making the playoffs, that trading the pick, trading down, picking a guy who won't see big minutes year 1, or any combination of the above is more likely than you're normal top 5 pick.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I'm sure I sound like a broken record but production relative to your position is an incredibly uncomplicated way to identify players more likely to succeed.

In this simple metric last year, the top 10 guys were:

Zion (1.62)
Brandon Clarke (1.43)
Bol Bol (1.37) (Small sample)
Ja Morant (1.25)
Dylan Windler (1.11)
Chuma Okeke (1.08)
Cam Johnson (1.08)
Jaxson Hayes (1.07)
Matisse Thybulle (1.04)
Grant Williams (1.03)

The top 6 VORP guys, in year 1, where all in that group:

Brandon Clarke (1.7)
Ja Morant (1.2)
Matisse Thybulle (0.8)
Zion (0.7)
Cam Johnson (0.7)
Jaxson Hayes (0.5)

I've talked about this previously and have shown year over year results that say the same thing. If you are drafting an American college player, you better be doing so from that roughly top 10-12 player pool in positional difference. If you are not, your odds of finding one of the best players in the draft decrease pretty quickly. That isn't to say that it is full proof, just that year after year, teams that pick from that pool have far more draft success.

In the 2020 class, the top 10 in this metric are:

James Wiseman (small sample)
Tyrese Haliburton
Onyeka Okongwu
Aaron Nesmith
Udoka Azubuike
Jalen Smith
Malachi Flynn
Xavier Tillman
Paul Reed
Vernon Carey Jr

Next 5

Obi Toppin
Daniel Oturu
Devin Vassell
Killian Tillie
Payton Pritchard

This years numbers will be really interesting to me, to see if this metric still has a lot of success......because we missed post-season games, which tend to provide
separation between players. But all the data this year just tells me that OO and Haliburton continue to be underrated......relative to their historical rank and success rate of like players and where their consensus mock draft ranks fall (both outside the top 5).

 

[narbar32]

I'm sure I sound like a broken record but production relative to your position is an incredibly uncomplicated way to identify players more likely to succeed.

In this simple metric last year, the top 10 guys were:

Zion (1.62)
Brandon Clarke (1.43)
Bol Bol (1.37) (Small sample)
Ja Morant (1.25)
Dylan Windler (1.11)
Chuma Okeke (1.08)
Cam Johnson (1.08)
Jaxson Hayes (1.07)
Matisse Thybulle (1.04)
Grant Williams (1.03)

The top 6 VORP guys, in year 1, where all in that group:

Brandon Clarke (1.7)
Ja Morant (1.2)
Matisse Thybulle (0.8)
Zion (0.7)
Cam Johnson (0.7)
Jaxson Hayes (0.5)

I've talked about this previously and have shown year over year results that say the same thing. If you are drafting an American college player, you better be doing so from that roughly top 10-12 player pool in positional difference. If you are not, your odds of finding one of the best players in the draft decrease pretty quickly. That isn't to say that it is full proof, just that year after year, teams that pick from that pool have far more draft success.

In the 2020 class, the top 10 in this metric are:

James Wiseman (small sample)
Tyrese Haliburton
Onyeka Okongwu
Aaron Nesmith
Udoka Azubuike
Jalen Smith
Malachi Flynn
Xavier Tillman
Paul Reed
Vernon Carey Jr

Next 5

Obi Toppin
Daniel Oturu
Devin Vassell
Killian Tillie
Payton Pritchard

This years numbers will be really interesting to me, to see if this metric still has a lot of success......because we missed post-season games, which tend to provide
separation between players. But all the data this year just tells me that OO and Haliburton continue to be underrated......relative to their historical rank and success rate of like players and where their consensus mock draft ranks fall (both outside the top 5).

I HATE the alignment this year of draft strength, cavs draft position, and team needs... Probably more than any other year I can remember.

I absolutely love several mid to late first round bigs in this class. Tillman and Reed are two of my favorite players in the entire draft. Tillman in particular I feel is virtually guaranteed to have a productive 10-year career with a Haslem-type impact, perhaps reaching Millsap or even Horford levels of offensive production if he continues to develop his range. Underrated athlete and smart defender, too. Jalen Smith is also super underrated, too--lengthy modern big with outside range, a tiny bit of a handle, and awesome glasses. But we don't have a pick where they're going to be drafted and our roster isn't great for getting them minutes.

Then the other strength of this draft seems to be perfect fits for either of our last two lottery picks, but not both--the oversized lead guard / 2-guard with vision. Even if BPA is the way to go at this point in the rebuild, I can still hate it if BPA turns out to also be WFA--worst fit available. And it looks like that's probably going to be the case.

I don't hate our players, but boy do I hate our roster. And my biggest fear is that our roster is so ill-fitting that it actually makes going strictly BPA a terrible plan because another wrong fit could end up hurting the development and value of literally every important player we have, including the new draftee.

 

[Lee]

I'm sure I sound like a broken record but production relative to your position is an incredibly uncomplicated way to identify players more likely to succeed.

In this simple metric last year, the top 10 guys were:

Zion (1.62)
Brandon Clarke (1.43)
Bol Bol (1.37) (Small sample)
Ja Morant (1.25)
Dylan Windler (1.11)
Chuma Okeke (1.08)
Cam Johnson (1.08)
Jaxson Hayes (1.07)
Matisse Thybulle (1.04)
Grant Williams (1.03)

The top 6 VORP guys, in year 1, where all in that group:

Brandon Clarke (1.7)
Ja Morant (1.2)
Matisse Thybulle (0.8)
Zion (0.7)
Cam Johnson (0.7)
Jaxson Hayes (0.5)

I've talked about this previously and have shown year over year results that say the same thing. If you are drafting an American college player, you better be doing so from that roughly top 10-12 player pool in positional difference. If you are not, your odds of finding one of the best players in the draft decrease pretty quickly. That isn't to say that it is full proof, just that year after year, teams that pick from that pool have far more draft success.

In the 2020 class, the top 10 in this metric are:

James Wiseman (small sample)
Tyrese Haliburton
Onyeka Okongwu
Aaron Nesmith
Udoka Azubuike
Jalen Smith
Malachi Flynn
Xavier Tillman
Paul Reed
Vernon Carey Jr

Next 5

Obi Toppin
Daniel Oturu
Devin Vassell
Killian Tillie
Payton Pritchard

This years numbers will be really interesting to me, to see if this metric still has a lot of success......because we missed post-season games, which tend to provide
separation between players. But all the data this year just tells me that OO and Haliburton continue to be underrated......relative to their historical rank and success rate of like players and where their consensus mock draft ranks fall (both outside the top 5).

Its Okongwu for me unless Wiseman somehow drops. I think the potential with Wiseman is too great to pass up, especially at 5...and yes I see the bust potential, but if he figures it out he will be an all star.

But Okongwu just has intangibles you cant teach and think he will be a glue type player, not bad for number 5 in a very weak draft.

 

[Muffinalt]

I HATE the alignment this year of draft strength, cavs draft position, and team needs... Probably more than any other year I can remember.

I absolutely love several mid to late first round bigs in this class. Tillman and Reed are two of my favorite players in the entire draft. Tillman in particular I feel is virtually guaranteed to have a productive 10-year career with a Haslem-type impact, perhaps reaching Millsap or even Horford levels of offensive production if he continues to develop his range. Underrated athlete and smart defender, too. Jalen Smith is also super underrated, too--lengthy modern big with outside range, a tiny bit of a handle, and awesome glasses. But we don't have a pick where they're going to be drafted and our roster isn't great for getting them minutes.

Then the other strength of this draft seems to be perfect fits for either of our last two lottery picks, but not both--the oversized lead guard / 2-guard with vision. Even if BPA is the way to go at this point in the rebuild, I can still hate it if BPA turns out to also be WFA--worst fit available. And it looks like that's probably going to be the case.

I don't hate our players, but boy do I hate our roster. And my biggest fear is that our roster is so ill-fitting that it actually makes going strictly BPA a terrible plan because another wrong fit could end up hurting the development and value of literally every important player we have, including the new draftee.

My god I want Tillman so much on this team at this point. My favorite guy in this draft for sure. Not at 5 but his ceiling is legit very high if he can combine that passing with good shooting and switchability.

Just seems like such a value selection to make. I'm sure other teams are thinking the same, but I have my fingers crossed we are acquiring a mid 1st somehow.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Tillman in particular I feel is virtually guaranteed to have a productive 10-year career with a Haslem-type impact, perhaps reaching Millsap or even Horford levels of offensive production if he continues to develop his range.

I am not saying he will be better than Draymond.......but if you believe that archetype can now succeed in the NBA, the numbers are pretty good on Tillman. Just assessing his prospect profile.

Shooting (3PT) is the big question......but when you look across his metrics.....he's a little younger, a little bigger, he scores more efficiently and things like his Hustle and defensive stats with personal foul efficiency are just really good. If he goes to a Dallas or Pheonix, somewhere with established pecking order and can provide defense and short roll play making, I just really like him as a player that will most definitely out kick his draft position.

Draymond is listed in the DB as just a PF, as in 2012, no one envisioned he could be a small ball 5. Just wanted to point that out if anyone pays that close attention to this table.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Its Okongwu for me unless Wiseman somehow drops. I think the potential with Wiseman is too great to pass up, especially at 5...and yes I see the bust potential, but if he figures it out he will be an all star.

But Okongwu just has intangibles you cant teach and think he will be a glue type player, not bad for number 5 in a very weak draft.

I like to think of Okungwu as TT, if TT actually had offensive potential.

There's enough there to buy in to his floor at 5. And if he develops his passing a bit more, he develops his face up game a bit more, you see an avenue to him being a plus player on both ends.

To me, Okungwu profiles as exactly the type of guy you want in that mid lottery range (5-9).........production, discernible NBA skills, young, and just enough "wow" tape to expect that there is a higher offensive ceiling.

He just does everything really well on a possession basis. I was reading some scouting reports Schmidt had produced on OO and he called him one of the best teenage pick and roll defenders he has evaluated. That singular skill is so damn valuable, that I really don't understand why he isn't more coveted in a draft with so much volatility at the top.