2020 NBA Draft

[Lee]

I like to think of Okungwu as TT, if TT actually had offensive potential.

There's enough there to buy in to his floor at 5. And if he develops his passing a bit more, he develops his face up game a bit more, you see an avenue to him being a plus player on both ends.

To me, Okungwu profiles as exactly the type of guy you want in that mid lottery range (5-9).........production, discernible NBA skills, young, and just enough "wow" tape to expect that there is a higher offensive ceiling.

He just does everything really well on a possession basis. I was reading some scouting reports Schmidt had produced on OO and he called him one of the best teenage pick and roll defenders he has evaluated. That singular skill is so damn valuable, that I really don't understand why he isn't more coveted in a draft with so much volatility at the top.

While I 100% agree, fuck you for stealing my thunder.

 

[Vipra]

I'm sure I sound like a broken record but production relative to your position is an incredibly uncomplicated way to identify players more likely to succeed.

In this simple metric last year, the top 10 guys were:

Zion (1.62)
Brandon Clarke (1.43)
Bol Bol (1.37) (Small sample)
Ja Morant (1.25)
Dylan Windler (1.11)
Chuma Okeke (1.08)
Cam Johnson (1.08)
Jaxson Hayes (1.07)
Matisse Thybulle (1.04)
Grant Williams (1.03)

The top 6 VORP guys, in year 1, where all in that group:

Brandon Clarke (1.7)
Ja Morant (1.2)
Matisse Thybulle (0.8)
Zion (0.7)
Cam Johnson (0.7)
Jaxson Hayes (0.5)

I've talked about this previously and have shown year over year results that say the same thing. If you are drafting an American college player, you better be doing so from that roughly top 10-12 player pool in positional difference. If you are not, your odds of finding one of the best players in the draft decrease pretty quickly. That isn't to say that it is full proof, just that year after year, teams that pick from that pool have far more draft success.

In the 2020 class, the top 10 in this metric are:

James Wiseman (small sample)
Tyrese Haliburton
Onyeka Okongwu
Aaron Nesmith
Udoka Azubuike
Jalen Smith
Malachi Flynn
Xavier Tillman
Paul Reed
Vernon Carey Jr

Next 5

Obi Toppin
Daniel Oturu
Devin Vassell
Killian Tillie
Payton Pritchard

This years numbers will be really interesting to me, to see if this metric still has a lot of success......because we missed post-season games, which tend to provide
separation between players. But all the data this year just tells me that OO and Haliburton continue to be underrated......relative to their historical rank and success rate of like players and where their consensus mock draft ranks fall (both outside the top 5).

That's an interesting take!

I have been saying this for a long time that this draft is a draft of equals. Even though there is sort of a consensus top four (Ball, Edwards, Wiseman, and Avdija - in any order), they are not head and shoulder above the other guys in the top 20 or 25. Hell, Tillie, who plays much like Kevin Love, is outside of top 40 in most mock drafts. Jalen Smith is one of my favorite versatile bigs in the draft - and most predict him falling in the twenties. And then there are Haliburton, Vassell, and Nesmith -- I wish the Cavs had interviewed them!

 

[wildfan]

how about a trade with the Knicks 5 for 8, 27 and 38.

 

[Cavatt]

That's an interesting take!

I have been saying this for a long time that this draft is a draft of equals. Even though there is sort of a consensus top four (Ball, Edwards, Wiseman, and Avdija - in any order), they are not head and shoulder above the other guys in the top 20 or 25. Hell, Tillie, who plays much like Kevin Love, is outside of top 40 in most mock drafts. Jalen Smith is one of my favorite versatile bigs in the draft - and most predict him falling in the twenties. And then there are Haliburton, Vassell, and Nesmith -- I wish the Cavs had interviewed them!

Halliburton is one of my favorites from this draft for sure. If there was no Garland I would snap him up.

 

[Alec]

how about a trade with the Knicks 5 for 8, 27 and 38.

Not quite enough value coming back and I would only make this move if we were on the clocked and missed out on our guy. If they want to move up three spots, they really want someone. Maybe another second?

 

[Muffinalt]

Halliburton is one of my favorites from this draft for sure. If there was no Garland I would snap him up.

Yeah really unfortunate he ended up BPA last year. Instead of filling out our roster this year and shaping it into one that's so coherent with the modern game, now we're scrambling for ideas how to compensate for a less than ideally fitting one.

BPA is always the way, but I wonder if you need to look into next year's crop with half an eye too. Something similar this year too because next year is so full of stud wings, do we really want the guy that's the best wing this year but not on the level of multiple guys in 21 (as much as I like Okoro)?

I know a year's worth of development is too much uncertainty so we need to pick BPA to capitalize on value with each pick, but the hindsight hurts.

 

[CleveRocks]

The thing is, we have spent most of the Drummond thread talking about how low the value is for even a competent big in the modern NBA. To me, that argues against taking any big high, unless he is Shaq 2.0.. On the other hand a long and athletic wing is the hardest player to find, and has ridiculous value.. It seems to me that tilts the playing field..

 

[Vipra]

No shade on Edwards, but if the draft plays out like:
1. Ball
2. Wiseman
3. Okongwu

* Does Chicago take Edwards at #4?
* If Chicago takes Deni, should the Cavs draft Edwards at #5? Should we then trade down, or try to gather future picks?

 

[Nathan S]

Attempt at a final big board. Roughly 50% advanced stats, 40% scouts, 10% my own gut opinion.

1. LaMelo Ball
2. Tyrese Haliburton
3. Onyeka Okongwu
4. Killian Hayes
5. Devin Vassell
6. Anthony Edwards
7. Josh Green
8. Aleksej Pokusevski
9. James Wiseman
10. Xavier Tillman
11. Isaac Okoro
12. Reggie Perry
13. Desmond Bane
14. Tre Jones
15. Malachi Flynn
16. Theo Maledon
17. Deni Avdija
18. Jalen Smith
19. Paul Reed
20. Trevelin Queen
21. Vernon Carey
22. Nate Hinton
23. RJ Hampton
24. Mason Jones
25. Saddiq Bey
26. Nico Mannion
27. Kira Lewis
28. CJ Elleby
29. Obi Toppin
30. Rokas Jokubaitis
31. Devon Dotson
32. Marko Simonovic
33. Patrick Williams
34. Nathan Knight
35. Lamine Diane
36. Cole Anthony
37. Payton Pritchard
38. Ashton Hagans
39. Leandro Bolmaro
40. Markus Howard
41. Tyler Bey
42. Zeke Nnaji
43. Killian Tillie
44. Aaron Nesmith
45. Jahmi'us Ramsey
46. Daniel Oturu
47. Tyrese Maxey
48. Filip Petrusev
49. Precious Achiuwa
50. Tres Tinkle
51. Isaiah Stewart
52. Grant Riller
53. Saben Lee
54. Ty-Shon Alexander
55. Jalen Harris
56. Tyrique Jones
57. Austin Wiley
58. Kaleb Wesson
59. Tyrell Terry
60. Justinian Jessup

Next 10: Immanuel Quickley, Yam Madar, Paul Eboua, Skylar Mays, Elijah Hughes, Abdoulaye N’Doye, Sam Merrill, Cassius Winston, Omer Yurtseven, Robert Woodard

 

[inliner311]

Halliburton is one of my favorites from this draft for sure. If there was no Garland I would snap him up.

I wonder what Garland's value is on the trade market. Could Garland with Love or Drummond net us a good draft pick or younger vet player to reshape our roster? Then that would allow us to take Haliburton with #5 and maybe get a clear direction to build out the roster.

 

[Henry Tuttle]

I wonder what Garland's value is on the trade market. Could Garland with Love or Drummond net us a good draft pick or younger vet player to reshape our roster? Then that would allow us to take Haliburton with #5 and maybe get a clear direction to build out the roster.

I think the Knicks and Pistons are the only teams that might make sense for Garland. The Cavs really painted themselves into a corner with that pick.

 

[inliner311]

I think the Knicks and Pistons are the only teams that might make sense for Garland. The Cavs really painted themselves into a corner with that pick.

While I don't think it's a realistic trade, I do think Garland and Love for #1 and whatever salaries needed to match kind of makes sense for the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves need a vet like Love to help them becomes a playoff team. He fits well next to Towns and maybe they like the idea of being Love back.

Garland would give them the young player to justify giving up #1 for Love. This is a weak draft and if they liked Garland last year, it might make sense if they look at it like a trade down. It doesn't really seem like the Timberwolves really want this #1 pick.

On the Cavs side it allows them to really shape the roster with the #1 and #5 pick. Alot of possibilities with those two picks even if it's a weaker draft.

 

[daytripper]

Hey @Nathan S I totally agree with your Toppin ranking!

 

[I'mWithDan]

I wonder what Garland's value is on the trade market. Could Garland with Love or Drummond net us a good draft pick or younger vet player to reshape our roster? Then that would allow us to take Haliburton with #5 and maybe get a clear direction to build out the roster.

Covid season was really tough on the Cavs rebuilding options.

I don't love Garland......but we also just really have next to no clue what we have in him either.

Staff turnover, slow start, coming off an injury, still just really young........it's a frustrating spot to be in.

We are probably better off seeing 1 more year of him, even if it is a sub par fit.......vs. trading him for a relatively inconsequential draft pick.

A full season would have helped the FO see exactly what it was they had in Garland and how he fit with Sexton. Getting the back half cut short really robbed the organization from seeing Garland play with his legs under him a little more.

 

[Nathan S]

Hey @Nathan S I totally agree with your Toppin ranking!

At his age, I think it's pretty clear that he's just a scoring specialist and unlikely to expand his game beyond that. Scoring specialists can be useful, but they aren't super rare...you have Toppin, Nesmith, Carey, Mason Jones, Howard, Riller, and Petrusev in this draft (off the top of my head) depending on exactly what sort of scoring specialist you're looking for. Don't know why you'd go and burn a high lottery pick on one of those guys.