2021 Around MLB: Return of the Dead Ball Era

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Gson

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How does the organization not have leverage when the Guardians can decide on paying him 11 million and 13 million or not... he has no guarenteed money at the current moment and the control over 22 and 23 is in the Guardians hands...
Do you honestly think the Indians are going to NOT pay the $ 11 MM and let JRam walk?.. no guaranteed money?.. are you kidding?.. JRam would personally deliver to everyone in this forum a $ 1000 if the CleFO decided to pass on his 2022 option making him a FREE AGENT RIGHT NOW.

The Guardians HAVE NO POWER..

NONE

The return for a 1 year rental is massively less than what the Guardians got for Lindor.?..

ALL THE LEVERAGE is controlled JRam..

smh..
 

Derek

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@sportscoach if he doesn’t understand by now, he doesn’t want to. Just leave him be.

Most of us understand the leverage the Guardians hold.

Jose can either play the next two years for $24 million, or he can sign an extension and probably double the money he makes of the next two years. That’s the same reason any extension gets signed, more money right now.
 

Gson

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@sportscoach if he doesn’t understand by now, he doesn’t want to. Just leave him be.

Most of us understand the leverage the Guardians hold.

Jose can either play the next two years for $24 million, or he can sign an extension and probably double the money he makes of the next two years. That’s the same reason any extension gets signed, more money right now.
and maybe you'll somehow figure it out.. that understanding JRam is controlled.. is KNOWN.. has been repeated OVER AND OVER AND OVER>. followed by comments to the contrary..

Jose will play the next two years.. and will make 24 MM or more.. The question becomes.. will he do so for the Guardians with an extension that raises his AAV to $ 30 MM.. or not..

If it's not..the Guardians will receive bug splat in return when he walks after 2023..

AND EVERYONE KNOWS JRAM IS CONTROLLED FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS..
 

Derek

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So @sportscoach, what kind of structure are you thinking?

I think 5/125 is really close to a done deal for both sides. Give him $40 million over the next two years instead of $24 million, and then spread the other $85 million over the remaining three seasons.

Why it makes sense for the Guardians?
Obvious one here, they retain their MVP candidate through his prime years to kickstart their rebrand without committing crazy money to him in his late-30’s.

Why it makes sense for Jose?
If he plays out the next two seasons under his current deal, and hits FA, and gets that $30 million AAV deal, he’ll make about $114 million over the next five years (and that’s likely a best case scenario).

So, not only are we significantly boosting the money he makes right now, he’ll end up making more over the next five years as well.
 

CATS44

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The premise that the Guardians should prepare for a future after Jose by trading him before then...if he doesn't sign an extension....is misguided.

The Guardians should try to win a World Series while they have him.

If he does not extend, in 2023 he becomes the best darned rental anybody has ever had....for a mere $13 mil.
 

sportscoach

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So @sportscoach, what kind of structure are you thinking?

I think 5/125 is really close to a done deal for both sides. Give him $40 million over the next two years instead of $24 million, and then spread the other $85 million over the remaining three seasons.

Why it makes sense for the Guardians?
Obvious one here, they retain their MVP candidate through his prime years to kickstart their rebrand.

Why it makes sense for Jose?
If he plays out the next two seasons under his current deal, and hits FA, and gets that $30 million AAV deal, he’ll make about $114 million over the next five years (and that’s likely a best case scenario).

So, not only are we significantly boosting the money he makes right now, he’ll end up making more over the next five years as well.

I am thinking a 6/144 with a team option for year 6 that has a 5 million buyout so 125 guaranteed... 24 AAV would on paper be the same as the 24 million plus 4 years at 30 million... I could see an AAV of maybe 25-26 but I am thinking the 24 mark is where the contract ends up if 6 seasons... if 5 the AAV I think will be a bit higher overall...

If I had my choice I'd try to more front load it rather than a straight AAV since the other players are cheaper in 22 and 23... but I think it will be straight or the contract structure you said.
 

Derek

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I am thinking a 6/144 with a team option for year 6 that has a 5 million buyout so 125 guaranteed... 24 AAV would on paper be the same as the 24 million plus 4 years at 30 million... I could see an AAV of maybe 25-26 but I am thinking the 24 mark is where the contract ends up if 6 seasons... if 5 the AAV I think will be a bit higher overall...

If I had my choice I'd try to more front load it rather than a straight AAV since the other players are cheaper in 22 and 23... but I think it will be straight or the contract structure you said.
At this point in his career, I would anticipate any option in the contract being his.

Only reason I question whether 6 years would be possible is that 33 seems a lot older than 32. Maybe it’s because I’m 33, but it’ll be easier for him to continue to get the money he wants by either a) hitting the open market after his age-32 season, or b) negotiating yet another extension that would kick in after his age-32 season.

That’s what this extension really hinges on. If Jose thinks he could get a 7-8 year deal after these next two option years, then he needs to feel pretty confident that he’ll still be able to make good money whenever any proposed extension would expire.

We’ve already established that an extension will net him more money over the next 5-6 years. It’s all about whether or not that additional amount will offset the risk of potentially making less money in his mid to late 30’s.
 

sportscoach

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At this point in his career, I would anticipate any option in the contract being his.

Only reason I question whether 6 years would be possible is that 33 seems a lot older than 32. Maybe it’s because I’m 33, but it’ll be easier for him to continue to get the money he wants by either a) hitting the open market after his age-32 season, or b) negotiating yet another extension that would kick in after his age-32 season.

That’s what this extension really hinges on. If Jose thinks he could get a 7-8 year deal after these next two option years, then he needs to feel pretty confident that he’ll still be able to make good money whenever any proposed extension would expire.

We’ve already established that an extension will net him more money over the next 5-6 years. It’s all about whether or not that additional amount will offset the risk of potentially making less money in his mid to late 30’s.

To me it is the years that will make or break the deal since what will the Guardians want and what will JRams team want. I think the FO is willing to go an extra year or so to keep JRam here, but if he wants like a ten year (I doubt but I cannot rule it out) then a deal isn't going to get done. I feel it will end up not based off of money, but based off of years...
 

jup

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The first time around JRam opted for security, so that is what his track record is.

An extension is security, because there is no telling what his numbers will look like 2 years from now going into free agency. He could roll the dice and play out the option years, I kind of doubt it. Not really his personality. And clearly not the choice he made earlier in his career. Good chance a deal gets done for less years than more @sportscoach. And I don't think the Indians will have to go beyond 6 total (that is the 2 current plus 4, whether you make them distinct or roll the 2 current option years in) to get it done.

And if I am the Indians, I am not going beyond 6 total unless they are option years and they are my option. Believe in JRam as you may, but more than 6 total becomes very risky for a low payroll team.
 

CDAV45

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It's a slippery slope when it comes to extending players into their 30's. Can't know the best route if you don't know the destination.
 

CalBuckeyeRob

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I can't see them offering more than 4 years past the current deal. In free agency, desperate teams will take guys well past 35 at times but I just can't see Cleveland doing that. I think that 4 years for around $120 million as others have mentioned seems the outer limit.
 

Derek

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I can't see them offering more than 4 years past the current deal. In free agency, desperate teams will take guys well past 35 at times but I just can't see Cleveland doing that. I think that 4 years for around $120 million as others have mentioned seems the outer limit.
Yeah, that would be @sportscoach proposed deal then. Probably in the 6/150 range.

In baseball, they include the already committed years because those are being restructured as well.
 
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CATS44

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Chart of TV market size. Note Cleveland market is larger than many other MLB small market teams.


But none of the smaller markets support an MLB, NFL, and NBA team.

Milwaukee, combined with the Green Bay Market, does, but their combined market is about the same size as Clevelands.
 

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