2021 Draft Lottery

[Ozone]

If Tankathon odds are correct we have a 43.7% chance of picking either 6th or 7th. Those are the key spots to watch IMO.

The greatest odds are 7th at 25.5% followed by 6th at 18.2%. Then the odds are greatest at 1,2,3,4,8,5&9 in that order.
I like our odds at least getting 6 being almost same as 7 over really plummeting into 8 or 9 anyway if they don't win a top 4 spot.

 

[Futuredome]

9,5,8 are not likely. It will be either 7,6,1,2. The 5th spot is due for some "luck"(and that counted before the lottery method switch occurred. So there is that.

 

[ssn774]

nm

 

[wildfan]

If Tankathon odds are correct we have a 43.7% chance of picking either 6th or 7th. Those are the key spots to watch IMO.

But what's the odds of a top 4 pick? think it's 45.1(if you add the odds of 1 to 4)

 

[bigfoot5415]

No. They will have three 1sts. The question is which ones.

If HOU stays in the top 4, than OKC will have their own pick, MIA pick(18), and now the BOS pick(16)

If HOU falls to 5, OKC will have their own pick, the HOU pick at 5, and the BOS pick at 16, with HOU then getting the MIA pick at 18

That said, overall, OKC has way more 1st round picks over the next five years than they can possibly draft, develop, and hold on to. It’s Ana amazing problem to have but they will need to be creative as time moves who they choose to prioritize and who they package together on deals for superstars or higher picks.

I think they'll likely go get Beal if they don't draft Green or Cunningham.

 

[daddywags]

But what's the odds of a top 4 pick? think it's 45.1(if you add the odds of 1 to 4)

Yep. If they get past 6 without calling our name we should be in good shape.

 

[Ozone]

Yep. If they get past 6 without calling our name we should be in good shape.

lol yeah I say if they don't call anything but chalk before 7 we got 6 locked up and probably win a top 4 spot

 

[DCTribefan]

For those conspiracy theorists, I see the NBA desperately wanting the Cavs to be relevant next year as Cleveland will host the All-Star game. Thus, it’s in the league’s best interest to have the Cavs win the lottery. Just saying.

Bump

 

[Ozone]

But what's the odds of a top 4 pick? think it's 45.1(if you add the odds of 1 to 4)

11.0
here is a link to the full odds sheet for each of the 4 draws individually :
https://www.nba.com/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

 

[Ozone]

Bump

LOL no way the Cavs are relevant no matter where they pick next season , but having a higher pick will certainly make them more interesting without having to debate lottery picks again in 22.
I think even at 9 the Cavs can walk away with a high upside contributor in this draft class.

 

[Sebastian]

There is a little known "League Leveling and Balancing" clause that was inserted into the Lottery rules during the last reform.

There is only ever a 0.425% chance of it occurring.

But if it does happen, not only does it drop the team out of the lottery, to the last pick in the 1st Round, but it also strips the team of next year's 1st Round pick.

So get used to the idea!

 

[DeeThree]

Where can I watch the draft lottery ?

 

[benchplayer]

But what's the odds of a top 4 pick? think it's 45.1(if you add the odds of 1 to 4)

Its basically a 50-50 split between top 5 and 6-7. I ran the tankathon lotto 10 times, and 5 times we picked 1-5 and 5 times between 6-7

 

[daddywags]

Where can I watch the draft lottery ?

ESPN at 8:30

 

[benchplayer]

I'm on the fence about how I feel about the changes to the lottery odds. On one hand, it forces a team into better scouting and development, on the other, it can be a recipe for mediocrity if a small market team can't find a franchise player.