2021 NBA Draft Safari

[Nathan S]

I figure in the last 8 drafts you have at least 3 (Giannis, Jokic, Doncic) and maybe as many as 5 (Gobert, Ball) #1 pick caliber prospects who played overseas. Porzingis might've been on that trajectory too if not for his torn ACL. That's arguably equal to or maybe even superior to the elite-level talent that's come through the NCAA in the same time. So if you don't make an effort to understand and scout international basketball, there's at least a 50/50 chance that you're going to completely overlook a future superstar in any given draft.

When I made my draft rater and scouted prospects years ago, during the Heatles years, I was thinking purely about college prospects. Things have changed a lot since then. Zion's like the only prospect lately who played in the NCAA and has semi-realistic MVP hopes, and with how the G League is taking off, he may be the last.

 

[MirORich]

I figure in the last 8 drafts you have at least 3 (Giannis, Jokic, Doncic) and maybe as many as 5 (Gobert, Ball) #1 pick caliber prospects who played overseas. Porzingis might've been on that trajectory too if not for his torn ACL. That's arguably equal to or maybe even superior to the elite-level talent that's come through the NCAA in the same time. So if you don't make an effort to understand and scout international basketball, there's at least a 50/50 chance that you're going to completely overlook a future superstar in any given draft.

When I made my draft rater and scouted prospects years ago, during the Heatles years, I was thinking purely about college prospects. Things have changed a lot since then. Zion's like the only prospect lately who played in the NCAA and has semi-realistic MVP hopes, and with how the G League is taking off, he may be the last.

Just not sure how LaMelo gets counted in that mix for a variety of reasons. I just don't know how much of his development can be credited to playing overseas when that was basically the farce of the Lithuania months and then the injury shortened Australian ball season.

2013 as a cutoff is helpful for the argument as well because it eliminates Kawhi, Kyrie, AD, Beal, Lillard, Klay, and Butler from the mix of American/NCAA developed players who are at least worthy of consideration to having been #1 pick calibre players. I get that there has to be a cut off point that speaks to recency on the way the game is played today but I don't know why 2013 would be the cutoff point for how far to go back vs 2012 or 2011, as all the players taken from 2011 are still in their clear primes in this generation of NBA playstyle.

But beyond that, it's just hard for me, regardless of the stats, to watch film of Sengun and put him into a similar silo as Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Gobert, and Ball based on positional size, traits, skill, etc. as it projects to the NBA. I'm sure the stats make a good counter argument and of course Jokic didn't physically look like a player who would dominate in the NBA based on his pre-draft stats and playstyle. (everything in this last paragraph is purely anecdotal and an opinion of a fairly basic basketball mind, so I recognize I have my blindspots and lack of specific data to back up that opinion. I still stand by it)

 

[Nathan S]

Just not sure how LaMelo gets counted in that mix for a variety of reasons. I just don't know how much of his development can be credited to playing overseas when that was basically the farce of the Lithuania months and then the injury shortened Australian ball season.

2013 as a cutoff is helpful for the argument as well because it eliminates Kawhi, Kyrie, AD, Beal, Lillard, Klay, and Butler from the mix of American/NCAA developed players who are at least worthy of consideration to having been #1 pick calibre players. I get that there has to be a cut off point that speaks to recency on the way the game is played today but I don't know why 2013 would be the cutoff point for how far to go back vs 2012 or 2011, as all the players taken from 2011 are still in their clear primes in this generation of NBA playstyle.

But beyond that, it's just hard for me, regardless of the stats, to watch film of Sengun and put him into a similar silo as Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, and Ball based on positional size, traits, skill, etc. as it projects to the NBA. I'm sure the stats make a good counter argument and of course Jokic didn't physically look like a player who would dominate in the NBA based on his pre-draft stats and playstyle. (everything in this last paragraph is purely anecdotal and an opinion of a fairly basic basketball mind, so I recognize I have my blindspots and lack of specific data to back up that opinion. I still stand by it)

Oh, I'm not really pointing to the development side of it, though that's a factor with some players. Giannis certainly didn't benefit from playing in an elite organization either. It's more that LaMelo's profile would be totally baffling to someone who doesn't know much about international basketball. Hell, he was a tough evaluation even if you did follow international basketball. Even more so with Giannis.

It's fair to point out that I cherrypicked that cutoff, but still, my point stands that over time more and more talent is coming through non-NCAA pipelines. Even if you're not higher-than-consensus on Sengun, Giddey, or Garuba, it feels like close to 50/50 odds that the best player in this draft will be an NCAA prospect because of Green and Kuminga. Comparing prospects across different leagues is dreadfully difficult, but it's basically inevitable in every single draft these days.

With all of Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, and Ball, (and add Gobert and Porzingis in there too), scouts at the time had plenty of reasons why those guys didn't have superstar potential, or wouldn't fit in the modern NBA at all. If we're strictly comparing them as prospects, ignoring NBA outcomes, I don't think you can look at them and say Sengun's obviously the worst of the bunch.

 

[MirORich]

Oh, I'm not really pointing to the development side of it, though that's a factor with some players. Giannis certainly didn't benefit from playing in an elite organization either. It's more that LaMelo's profile would be totally baffling to someone who doesn't know much about international basketball. Hell, he was a tough evaluation even if you did follow international basketball. Even more so with Giannis.

It's fair to point out that I cherrypicked that cutoff, but still, my point stands that over time more and more talent is coming through non-NCAA pipelines. Even if you're not higher-than-consensus on Sengun, Giddey, or Garuba, it feels like close to 50/50 odds that the best player in this draft will be an NCAA prospect because of Green and Kuminga. Comparing prospects across different leagues is dreadfully difficult, but it's basically inevitable in every single draft these days.

With all of Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, and Ball, (and add Gobert and Porzingis in there too), scouts at the time had plenty of reasons why those guys didn't have superstar potential, or wouldn't fit in the modern NBA at all. If we're strictly comparing them as prospects, ignoring NBA outcomes, I don't think you can look at them and say Sengun's obviously the worst of the bunch.

It's a tricky dynamic because anything I'm saying against Sengun in the context of being a top 3 or even top6 pick is not a rebuttal against him as a prospect at all or against the ability to project based on the current state of play overseas. I'm also more bullish on that than in the past. I just have yet to sell myself or allow myself to get sold on Sengun ahead of the consensus top 6. Of course I know, that its an almost certainty that not all of those 6 will end up hitting their ceilings, but I like all their ceilings more than Senguns and I would take any one of the 6 ahead of Sengun in this draft. But I also consider this a pretty good draft and being comfortable with Sengun possibly as high as the 7-8 range(hate to acknowledge that both of those are still possible for our pick) is an indicator that I think he's good and believe that the reasoning behind why he's good is sound.

 

[Nathan S]

It's a tricky dynamic because anything I'm saying against Sengun in the context of being a top 3 or even top6 pick is not a rebuttal against him as a prospect at all or against the ability to project based on the current state of play overseas. I'm also more bullish on that than in the past. I just have yet to sell myself or allow myself to get sold on Sengun ahead of the consensus top 6. Of course I know, that its an almost certainty that not all of those 6 will end up hitting their ceilings, but I like all their ceilings more than Senguns and I would take any one of the 6 ahead of Sengun in this draft. But I also consider this a pretty good draft and being comfortable with Sengun possibly as high as the 7-8 range(hate to acknowledge that both of those are still possible for our pick) is an indicator that I think he's good and believe that the reasoning behind why he's good is sound.

Consensus top-6, you say? Putting Barnes in there? Good man. I have to say, I won't be devastated if we end up drafting 6th or 7th, because (assuming the top-5 goes as expected) it's likely that Barnes and Sengun will be among the BPA. We might actually draft one of my top prospects for once

 

[MirORich]

Consensus top-6, you say? Putting Barnes in there? Good man. I have to say, I won't be devastated if we end up drafting 6th or 7th, because (assuming the top-5 goes as expected) it's likely that Barnes and Sengun will be among the BPA. We might actually draft one of my top prospects for once

I don't know who does the Tankathon Big Board but they've had Barnes at 6-7 for most of the year(they currently have Sengun at 9)
RCF and Tankathon are the two main draft sources I go to, beyond some of those Schmitz player breakdowns and interviews he does with prospects and various twitter follows(Givony, Ford, etc). Of course, whenever the Ringer does their big draft preview, I'll pay some attention to that as well.

So between RCF and Tankathon, I've been more than comfortable with Barnes for a while and have grown more comfortable with Sengun, though I still have him at 7 currently in terms of what I want for the Cavs

 

[Nathan S]

I don't know who does the Tankathon Big Board but they've had Barnes at 6-7 for most of the year(they currently have Sengun at 9)
RCF and Tankathon are the two main draft sources I go to, beyond some of those Schmitz player breakdowns and interviews he does with prospects and various twitter follows(Givony, Ford, etc). Of course, whenever the Ringer does their big draft preview, I'll pay some attention to that as well.

So between RCF and Tankathon, I've been more than comfortable with Barnes for a while and have grown more comfortable with Sengun, though I still have him at 7 currently in terms of what I want for the Cavs

I see The Ringer has Sengun up to #9 as well, noting his "upside to be an offensive hub." I tend to think his consensus position will continue to trend up as teams familiarize themselves with his more recent film.

 

[daddywags]

Seems, to me anyway, that the obvious question is: how do Sengun and Allen co-exist?

 

[Nathan S]

Seems, to me anyway, that the obvious question is: how do Sengun and Allen co-exist?

At least in terms of fit, Sengun and Mobley are kind of similar offensively. They don't immediately have NBA-range jumpshots, but they're highly skilled bigs who don't have to be in the paint to contribute offensively, and they have real potential to extend their range. Both of them would also benefit from having a capable defensive big like Allen next to them as well.

If you draft for fit, basically excluding PG, SG, and C, you eliminate 3 of the top 5 and probably 5-6 of the top 10 prospects. I don't think the Cavs are far enough along in their rebuild that they can afford to be that picky.

 

[daddywags]

At least in terms of fit, Sengun and Mobley are kind of similar offensively. They don't immediately have NBA-range jumpshots, but they're highly skilled bigs who don't have to be in the paint to contribute offensively, and they have real potential to extend their range. Both of them would also benefit from having a capable defensive big like Allen next to them as well.

If you draft for fit, basically excluding PG, SG, and C, you eliminate 3 of the top 5 and probably 5-6 of the top 10 prospects. I don't think the Cavs are far enough along in their rebuild that they can afford to be that picky.

Thanks. I guess I've finally sort of convinced myself that Mobley could play PF next to Allen, now I will try to do the same with Sengun. I definitely agree that we shouldn't be drafting for fit at this point.

 

[Nathan S]

Thanks. I guess I've finally sort of convinced myself that Mobley could play PF next to Allen, now I will try to do the same with Sengun. I definitely agree that we shouldn't be drafting for fit at this point.

Both of them are familiar with playing alongside another big at lower levels, so I don't think it'll be a trainwreck in any case (though obviously the sooner they start making 3's, the better).

 

["MVP"]

Frankly, I'd like more Sengun / Garuba / Giddey talk.

Most of us have had an opportunity to watch Cade / Mobley / Suggs / Barnes / Wagner / Moody / Mitchell / etc. throughout the season & even the G-League Ignite games were much more accessible to watch than international basketball.

All of what I know from the international prospects is from this thread, and especially the analysis from @Nathan S & @I'mWithDan .

Speaking of which.... How's Garuba? I've heard mixed things.

 

[Ozone]

I like Senguns upside but I cannot get around the idea this gm would even consider drafting him in the top 8
so I wish him well but my interest ends there

 

[MirORich]

I like Senguns upside but I cannot get around the idea this gm would even consider drafting him in the top 8
so I wish him well but my interest ends there

I'll assume Cade, Mobley, Kuminga, Suggs, Barnes, and Green are all in your top 8. Who are the other two you feel are absolute better choices over Sengun? Not saying there is anything wrong with that, just curious who the other two are for you.

 

[Nathan S]

Frankly, I'd like more Sengun / Garuba / Giddey talk.

Most of us have had an opportunity to watch Cade / Mobley / Suggs / Barnes / Wagner / Moody / Mitchell / etc. throughout the season & even the G-League Ignite games were much more accessible to watch than international basketball.

All of what I know from the international prospects is from this thread, and especially the analysis from @Nathan S & @I'mWithDan .

Speaking of which.... How's Garuba? I've heard mixed things.

Garuba's big selling point is his defense. I haven't been watching full games or anything, but my perception is that he's been consistently very good on that end, and he's one of relatively few prospects who can credibly switch 1-5. Here he is vs. Efes's guards a couple weeks ago, all of whom are NBA-level ballhandlers



And some fun blocks from previous games




He's pretty rough on offense...Real Madrid has a bevy of offensive weapons, and Garuba's just about the last guy they run plays for. Fundamentally sound in terms of making basic passes, setting screens, and putting himself in position to make an open 3 or an alley oop. But he's not a very good ballhandler, and he doesn't have great touch as a scorer. Defenses don't really respect him at all at the moment.

Ibaka is a tempting comparison as another defensive-minded prospect out of Spain. Garuba's not quite as good as a pure shot blocker, but his overall defensive impact is on the same level, and he's probably ahead of where Ibaka was offensively at 19. Not crazy to imagine that, like Ibaka, he could eventually develop into a quality 15ppg guy on offense who's a perennial All-Defensive Team candidate on the other end, and that would be solid returns for a mid lottery pick. But the team that drafts him will have to be patient with him until his offense comes around.