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The 17-17 Cubs come to town for a short two-game midweek series. The Cubs won five in a row before losing to the Pirates by a run on Sunday. They've been playing good ball. However, 8 of their 17 wins have been by one run. Their run differential is -5 which combined with their record makes them about as average as you can get.
That being said, they are 13-8 at Wrigley and 4-9 on the road, so they've been two different teams altogether depending on where they're playing. The Indians may be catching them at a good time as they are having some injury problems. SS Nico Hoerner, hitting .389, is out and CF Jake Marisnick, hitting .264/.973 is day-to-day. Hoerner and Marisnick rank 1 and 3 in OPS. Their top healthy hitter is Kris Bryant at .308/1.047.
The Cubs are 12th in the majors in runs per game at 4.62 but if both Hoerner and Marisnick are out it will be a problem. Their wRC+ is 95, good for 8th in the N.L.
Relief pitcher Dan Winkler, 0.84 ERA, is also out. FanGraphs ranks their starters last in xFIP. Their bullpen is average.
However, we are only facing two of their starters. Tonight it's Bieber against RHP Adbert Alzolay, 1-2, 4.50. Alzolay is in his third year with a career record of 3-4, 4.53. In five starts this year he's only made it through six innings one time. Opposing batters are hitting .174 against him, so he's been an effective five-and-fly guy. His problem has been home runs; he's allowed four in 26 innings.
Wednesday it's Hentges vs. Zach Davies, 2-2, 6.30. Davies is listed at 6'0", 155 pounds, which you never see in a starting pitcher anymore. He's really struggled, allowing 55 hits and walks in 30 innings over 7 starts, barely averaging 4 innings per start. But in his last start he pitched seven shutout innings against the Pirates allowing five hits and inducing 15 ground balls.
According to FanGraphs, Davies throws his "sinker curve" 54% of the time at an average velocity of 88. He also throws a cutter at 87 mph, a changeup at 78 mph, and a curve at 73. IOW, a soft-tossing righty, the kind that drive the Indians nuts. They're the worst team in baseball at hitting changeups and this guy will give them lots of opportunities to embarass themselves. I can already see them beating every ball into the ground.
FanGraphs' National League rankings have the Cubbies 8th in offense, 13th in fielding, and 5th in base running. Their pitching is 11th in xFIP. Based on these rankings they should not be 17-17 but somewhat lower, but they have benefitted from playing 21 games at home against only 13 on the road along with a lot of one-run wins.
The Indians are 14th in offense, 7th in fielding, 10th in baserunning, and 3rd in xFIP. Their pitching is carrying them until the offense gets going. Or should I say "if" the offense gets going?
That being said, they are 13-8 at Wrigley and 4-9 on the road, so they've been two different teams altogether depending on where they're playing. The Indians may be catching them at a good time as they are having some injury problems. SS Nico Hoerner, hitting .389, is out and CF Jake Marisnick, hitting .264/.973 is day-to-day. Hoerner and Marisnick rank 1 and 3 in OPS. Their top healthy hitter is Kris Bryant at .308/1.047.
The Cubs are 12th in the majors in runs per game at 4.62 but if both Hoerner and Marisnick are out it will be a problem. Their wRC+ is 95, good for 8th in the N.L.
Relief pitcher Dan Winkler, 0.84 ERA, is also out. FanGraphs ranks their starters last in xFIP. Their bullpen is average.
However, we are only facing two of their starters. Tonight it's Bieber against RHP Adbert Alzolay, 1-2, 4.50. Alzolay is in his third year with a career record of 3-4, 4.53. In five starts this year he's only made it through six innings one time. Opposing batters are hitting .174 against him, so he's been an effective five-and-fly guy. His problem has been home runs; he's allowed four in 26 innings.
Wednesday it's Hentges vs. Zach Davies, 2-2, 6.30. Davies is listed at 6'0", 155 pounds, which you never see in a starting pitcher anymore. He's really struggled, allowing 55 hits and walks in 30 innings over 7 starts, barely averaging 4 innings per start. But in his last start he pitched seven shutout innings against the Pirates allowing five hits and inducing 15 ground balls.
According to FanGraphs, Davies throws his "sinker curve" 54% of the time at an average velocity of 88. He also throws a cutter at 87 mph, a changeup at 78 mph, and a curve at 73. IOW, a soft-tossing righty, the kind that drive the Indians nuts. They're the worst team in baseball at hitting changeups and this guy will give them lots of opportunities to embarass themselves. I can already see them beating every ball into the ground.
FanGraphs' National League rankings have the Cubbies 8th in offense, 13th in fielding, and 5th in base running. Their pitching is 11th in xFIP. Based on these rankings they should not be 17-17 but somewhat lower, but they have benefitted from playing 21 games at home against only 13 on the road along with a lot of one-run wins.
The Indians are 14th in offense, 7th in fielding, 10th in baserunning, and 3rd in xFIP. Their pitching is carrying them until the offense gets going. Or should I say "if" the offense gets going?
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