2021 Series #13 | Indians @ Angels | May 17-19, 2021

[xmasbuck]

Contrary to popular belief, BJ Upton and Justin Upton are different people

i think this is the 5th consecutive season I've thought theyre both out of the game (until we play the angels)

 

[Derek]

Yeah well, the guys that have produced in the majors could be bums too. There is no guarantee for anything in baseball. What you can take to the bank is that there are very few players or prospects that can swing a baseball bat like Owen Miller and Tyler Freeman. We're not talking about lower level guys here or I'd be in agreement with you. Hell, Miller skipped high A ball altogether.

Except guys who have produced in the majors typically continue to produce in the majors unless they’re doing something statistically unsustainable or get hurt.

To give you a frame of reference as to where I’m at, if I thought Miller or Freeman had more than a 50% chance of working out and being good players, I’d consider them two of the best prospects in baseball.

 

[CDAV45]

Yes and now 2 years later he's up 1 level and 24 years old. He isn't exactly on the fastest pace ever for a player.

Does anyone have a good take on his approach at the plate? He's surely good at hitting line drives but I'm thinking more plate discipline.

His first season as a pro was 2018 and there wasn't a 2020 season if you've forgotten. His career OBP is .374. He has an excellent eye and his OBP isn't solely influenced by his ability to put the bat on the ball. In other words he'll take a walk. After skipping high A ball and going straight to AA he managed to hit 290/355/430/785 with 13 HR, 28 2B, 2 3B with 86 SO, 46 BB in 507 AB.

 

[CDAV45]

Except guys who have produced in the majors typically continue to produce in the majors unless they’re doing something statistically unsustainable or get hurt.

To give you a frame of reference as to where I’m at, if I thought Miller or Freeman had more than a 50% chance of working out and being good players, I’d consider them two of the best prospects on baseball.

I could care less what national pundits think of Miller and Freeman because they are 2 of the best prospects in baseball. There are very few that can hit as consistently as those 2. Very few indeed.

I'm not selling these 2 as something they're not, and there is a chance that they fail, but that chance is less than most hitters currently on the big league roster. They are not going to be big time run producing power hitters. They are what they are.

 

[Derek]

I could care less what national pundits think of Miller and Freeman because they are 2 of the best prospects in baseball. There are very few that can hit as consistently as those 2. Very few indeed.

Who said anything about national pundits?

 

[CDAV45]

Who said anything about national pundits?

It sounded like you thought they would be rated higher if they were as good as I'm saying. If that's not what you meant or said then I apologize for the misunderstanding.

Edited to say that as highly as I think of Freeman and Miller, neither have the ceiling of Arias. If I'm overblown on a prospect he might be the one, but his ceiling is unlimited. He has the potential to be a freak on both sides of the ball.

 

[Derek]

It sounded like you thought they would be rated higher if they were as good as I'm saying. If that's not what you meant or said then I apologize for the misunderstanding.

No, I specifically said I, personally, would rate them as two of the best prospects in baseball if I thought they had more than a 50% chance of working out.

As I said, I might be overly pragmatic, but I believe all but a select few top prospects are more than likely going to bust.

Me saying Miller and Freeman are 50/50 to be any good is me rating them very highly.

 

[KluberSociety]

His first season as a pro was 2018 and there wasn't a 2020 season if you've forgotten. His career OBP is .374. He has an excellent eye and his OBP isn't solely influenced by his ability to put the bat on the ball. In other words he'll take a walk. After skipping high A ball and going straight to AA he managed to hit 290/355/430/785 with 13 HR, 28 2B, 2 3B with 86 SO, 46 BB in 507 AB.

Yeah I can read a stat line too. His stat line so far would indicate an approach not ready for the majors. Of course he's just getting going and the whole team is striking out so it might be tough pitching to make contact against. I'm not sure but citing an OBP driven by AVG as evidence that he'll "take a walk" is not the evidence I'm looking for.

I have seen older descriptions say that he has an advanced approach but I'd be curious if anyone has additional info outside of stats.

 

[CDAV45]

No, I specifically said I, personally, would rate them as two of the best prospects in baseball if I thought they had more than a 50% chance of working out.

As I said, I might be overly pragmatic, but I believe all but a select few top prospects are more than likely going to bust.

Me saying Miller and Freeman are 50/50 to be any good is me rating them very highly.

I think your "50% chance of working out" applies to those younger prospects with high ceilings and little proof to support the lofty expectations due to inexperience. Rocchio falls into that category for me. Guys like Jones and Bradley are high risk, high reward guys as well who haven't proven they can perform consistently among the best prospects baseball has to offer. While they could prove to be huge offensive producers at the highest level their history suggests that they are more likely to fail.

 

[CDAV45]

Yeah I can read a stat line too. His stat line so far would indicate an approach not ready for the majors. Of course he's just getting going and the whole team is striking out so it might be tough pitching to make contact against. I'm not sure but citing an OBP driven by AVG as evidence that he'll "take a walk" is not the evidence I'm looking for.

I have seen older descriptions say that he has an advanced approach but I'd be curious if anyone has additional info outside of stats.

What are you talking about? I didn't cite that his OBP was driven by AVG. I said it wasn't driven merely by average. His SO to walk ratio isn't even 2:1.

I remember back in ST when Miller impressed me before I knew who he was. Upon stating that he impressed me and inquiring about him Bimbo stated something that went along the lines that the hitting coaches said he was one of the best pure hitters they have ever seen. Maybe Bimbo can add to this if he reads it.

 

[KluberSociety]

What are you talking about? I didn't cite that his OBP was driven by AVG. I said it wasn't driven merely by average. His SO to walk ratio isn't even 2:1.

I remember back in ST when Miller impressed me before I knew who he was. Upon stating that he impressed me and inquiring about him Bimbo stated something that went along the lines that the hitting coaches said he was one of the best pure hitters they have ever seen. Maybe Bimbo can add to this if he reads it.

So far this year it's over 2:1 and against AAA pitching that's not very good when it comes to transitioning into the majors against pitchers who are much better at managing counts. I'd expect someone with what I thought was his profile, to be lower than that.

 

[Derek]

I think your "50% chance of working out" applies to those younger prospects with high ceilings and little proof to support the lofty expectations due to inexperience. Rocchio falls into that category for me. Guys like Jones and Bradley are high risk, high reward guys as well who haven't proven they can perform consistently among the best prospects baseball has to offer. While they could prove to be huge offensive producers at the highest level their history suggests that they are more likely to fail.

Well, I’d put those other guys you mentioned at an even lower chance of working out.

 

[CDAV45]

So far this year it's over 2:1 and against AAA pitching that's not very good when it comes to transitioning into the majors against pitchers who are much better at managing counts. I'd expect someone with what I thought was his profile, to be lower than that.

OK we'll ignore the huge sample size of his career and weigh it against 52 AB so far this season where his OBP is .482. I'm sure it couldn't be that these pitchers that have never faced him are throwing him more strikes initially. Maybe later in the season they'd be more cautious with him. His career trajectory might indicate that. Low and behold that theory probably won't be put to the test because he is likely getting called up soon, and the theory that he is likely to be a bust will be put to the test.

 

[sportscoach]

I was excited when we got Owen Miller and read his player profile... He was the type of player I was hoping we would draft since he was just a pure contact hitter... I was high on him since we got him and I am hoping he succeeds

 

[Criznit]

Owen Miller has some K concerns this year but those should soften as he gets more experience. He has such natural contact ability you would hope he can manage a 280/330/420 line as a rookie and trend up... Is he Tim Anderson with slower wheels and better eyes?? I'll take that!