2021 Series #4 | Indians @ White Sox | April 12th, 13th, 14th, and 15th

[Criznit]

Re: Reyes.....it would seem, given his size, that 1B would be a better fit for him than the OF. Not sure I understand moving Naylor to 1B and putting Fran in the OF.

What don't I now about this?

I believe he will be "challenged" wherever he is positioned in the long term. Keeping him away from the ball as much as possible may be the actual plan.

 

[Alabuckeye]

Those answers make sense. Dude swings a mean bat and is a ......less than adequate fielder. And 1B touches the ball more prospectively than an OF.......I guess it's a matter of which poison you want. Balls bouncing to the fencing by the 1B dugout or the sight of him chasing balls around the OF as the runner circles the bases.

 

[Derek]

Those answers make sense. Dude swings a mean bat and is a ......less than adequate fielder. And 1B touches the ball more prospectively than an OF.......I guess it's a matter of which poison you want. Balls bouncing to the fencing by the 1B dugout or the sight of him chasing balls around the OF as the runner circles the bases.

Yeah, when it comes down to it, Franmil's only real experience is in the OF while Naylor played a decent amount of 1B after he was drafted.

Neither is ideal defensively, but we're making do with what we can until they finally make the DH universal.

 

[xmasbuck]

In simplest terms, the Tribe is generally hitting the ball on the nose...which also means at a generally high exit velocity...at the fourth best rate out of thirty teams. But the rate of balls falling in for hits is next to last.

The success rate vs what should normally happen is the second worst in MLB.

We also have the second fewest Ks in the AL.

Basically, we are consistently putting the ball in play, and hitting the ball hard, but have very little to show for it.

We are hitting more home runs than all but two teams in the AL.

In other words, if we keep doing exactly what we have been doing at the plate, at some point we are gonna start scoring runs in bunches.

same excuse the Reds are using for their poor hitting performance in 2020 - perhaps its just the modern excuse for poor hitting teams

 

[Lee]

Dating back to 2012 (when Franmil was 16), he has played just 10 innings at 1B.

8 were in the Dominican Summer League when he was 16, and 2 were in A ball when he was 19.

 

[thestatman]

Lopez will really have to show something to get back in the team's good graces. You're right about Kopech; he won't be starting games this year, at least not with the intention of any length. It wouldn't surprise me if Keuchel takes a huge step back in performance this year. If he has any back problems at all, he won't be able to keep his stuff down in the zone for long stretches, and that's what it looks like is happening. A consistently effective Rodon would be scary for sure, but Cease remains a mystery despite terrific stuff. His potential variance is probably wider than anyone on that staff. I'm encouraged that Crochet doesn't look like the lockdown guy he was last year, and I'm betting Liam Hendriks will prove less effective than anticipated as well. But they have more than enough good arms back there to make up for any marginal step-backs by those two.

As for their lineup, without Eloy, the ceiling is much lower than one might think. Tim Anderson's numbers are vulnerable, Moncada hasn't been the same since Covid, and can the Sox really expect the return of MVP Abreu? We're probably past peak Grandal, and while Eaton has done well in the early going, he's combustible. Vaughn is a good young hitter, I like Madrigal more than most, Mercedes is a great story, and Robert's potential is incredible, but this team may depend more on pitching than one might anticipate. And with its defensive indifference, that might be a problem.

I still like the Twins better than the White Sox, but they have issues too, as we all do.

Lopez will really have to show something to get back in the team's good graces. You're right about Kopech; he won't be starting games this year, at least not with the intention of any length. It wouldn't surprise me if Keuchel takes a huge step back in performance this year. If he has any back problems at all, he won't be able to keep his stuff down in the zone for long stretches, and that's what it looks like is happening. A consistently effective Rodon would be scary for sure, but Cease remains a mystery despite terrific stuff. His potential variance is probably wider than anyone on that staff. I'm encouraged that Crochet doesn't look like the lockdown guy he was last year, and I'm betting Liam Hendriks will prove less effective than anticipated as well. But they have more than enough good arms back there to make up for any marginal step-backs by those two.

As for their lineup, without Eloy, the ceiling is much lower than one might think. Tim Anderson's numbers are vulnerable, Moncada hasn't been the same since Covid, and can the Sox really expect the return of MVP Abreu? We're probably past peak Grandal, and while Eaton has done well in the early going, he's combustible. Vaughn is a good young hitter, I like Madrigal more than most, Mercedes is a great story, and Robert's potential is incredible, but this team may depend more on pitching than one might anticipate. And with its defensive indifference, that might be a problem.

I still like the Twins better than the White Sox, but they have issues too, as we all do.

I agree with much of what you say here. But why is Anderson's numbers vulnerable? 2 straight tremendous offensive seasons. Also Cease was really good towards the end last year and he's picked right up this season so far.

 

[Derek]

I agree with much of what you say here. But why is Anderson's numbers vulnerable? 2 straight tremendous offensive seasons. Also Cease was really good towards the end last year and he's picked right up this season so far.

Tough to call it 2 seasons when it's over a span of 172 games.

The .399 and .383 BABIP are unsustainable, and with his nearly non-existent walk rate, it wouldn't be surprising to see him return to being a rather pedestrian offensive player.

 

[sportscoach]

Tough to call it 2 seasons when it's over a span of 172 games.

The .399 and .383 BABIP are unsustainable, and with his nearly non-existent walk rate, it wouldn't be surprising to see him return to being a rather pedestrian offensive player.

I have a hunch as long as he doesn't have significant injuries to his legs, I think he will keep up the numbers. It sounds improbable and it's just a hunch on my end, but I think he will find a way to keep the BABIP up

 

[CATS44]

BABIP and average EV are strongly correlated. Simply, the harder you hit the ball the more likely a ball will fall in for a hit.

Andersons average EV is below the MLB average, but his BABIP is off the charts. In other words, he has been extremely fortunate in that a lot of softly hit balls have found holes.

It is doubtful that he can sustain his production.

As for Cease, he has basically been awful in his MLB career.....Plutko awful.

His career FIP is worse than Plutko's

He simply cannot keep from walking a significant amount of batters. In his last 14 starts since the beginning of 2020 he has failed to go five innings half the time.

He wouldn't be able to make our team.

 

[CATS44]

same excuse the Reds are using for their poor hitting performance in 2020 - perhaps its just the modern excuse for poor hitting teams

The Reds can use that excuse, but the data does not support it.

Of their starters, only Castellanos can rightfully claim bad luck. On the other hand, Winker was very fortunate.

 

[Criznit]

Tim Anderson will always be a hit hit hit HIT 1st type player. As long as he can average a hit 30% of the time he will be a good player, but if the hits stop dropping he crashes back to Earth.

 

[WhoAzcue]

Interesting what's going on in Chicagoland with regard to shortstops. Several years back, it was all the rage to ignore Javy Baez's poor walk rate and just assume that quick bat of his was going to mitigate any issues he had with strike zone management. It was easier to just imagine a world where Baez would be a slick fielding and effectively aggressive hitter throughout his career.

Has anyone looked at his results recently? OPS+ of 62 last year, striking out 75 times against 7 walks. He's boosted his OPS+ to 80 this year (largely on the back of down offenses across baseball) but has 21 strikeouts to 1 walk so far. How must his walk year look going up against all those free agent shortstops this winter?

I'm not saying Tim Anderson's offensive stats are built completely on straw the way Baez's were, but his strikeout to walk rates are just about as bad, and as CATS has pointed out, there would appear to be a collision coming at some point with respect to hard hit rate and BABIP.

But then, I blooped my way to a long career in slow pitch softball so who knows how long it can last?

 

[Criznit]

Until the series thread goes up..

Really like the NL lineup we put out there. Gimenez gets his 2nd start in the leadoff spot. Don't want to overwhelm the kid but think he will eventually lock it down and be the regular up top.

Rather have Chang start, but Bauers is sinking or swimming at the moment and will have to play well the next couple weeks or he is as a goner.

 

[thestatman]

BABIP and average EV are strongly correlated. Simply, the harder you hit the ball the more likely a ball will fall in for a hit.

Andersons average EV is below the MLB average, but his BABIP is off the charts. In other words, he has been extremely fortunate in that a lot of softly hit balls have found holes.

It is doubtful that he can sustain his production.

As for Cease, he has basically been awful in his MLB career.....Plutko awful.

His career FIP is worse than Plutko's

He simply cannot keep from walking a significant amount of batters. In his last 14 starts since the beginning of 2020 he has failed to go five innings half the time.

He wouldn't be able to make our team.

 

[CDAV45]

My D has a crack in it too.

You should get that looked at!