2022 Cleveland Guardians Regular Season Thread

[Wham with the Right Hand]

We keep talking about offense offense offense, and how ours is negative this and negative that with a focus on home runs and consistency.

We are scoring more runs per game than Minnesota.

In 42 games we've scored three runs or less 21 times. In 47 games the Twins have scored three runs or less 26 times.

And yet, they lead the division.

Pitching...theirs has been better, but ours will catch up.

Not to mention the difference in the schedules. Minnesota has had the easiest schedule in the AL so far.

Looking at scoring averages can be misleading. The Guardians are feast or famine - they score a lot and win or score 1 or 2 runs and lose. They're five games under .500 but +10 in run differential.

This last series is the perfect example; they win 8-1 and lose 4-3 and 2-1. They outscore the Tigers 12-7 but lose 2 of 3.

They need to be more consistent from game to game. If they could consistently score 3-6 runs instead of yo-yoing between 1 and 8 they'd win a lot more games.

 

[CDAV45]

I get what you are saying but I just don't think with Guardian way of pitching that they will trade for an AAA/MLB level pitcher who is about ready to make the jump. I guess that they tried with Myers but that was just a flyer and I think people saw him as a reliever anyways. If you look at AAA stats, he had 12 games at 58 innings and 4 quality starts. Thus, to be a starter, he had a lot more time at AAA to get extended due to COVID and now lockout.

We all wanted to see that flyer trade of Myers, Battenfield or Pilk pay off ASAP, like a Kluber trade. But, sorry guys, no sane GM is going to trade a stud pitcher for a rental as in Luplow, Cesar or JC (DSL guy). These guys needed work. Pilk being a AAA 6th guy is the best that we could have expected so soon. Heck, Kluber had 7/27/21 starts in 2010/11/12 for us to learn our way of pitching to take an AA decent prospect to next level. Give these guys a little time to acclimate and adjust especially Myers and Pilk who had no real ST (and hands off for first month or two in system before our coaches tinker before we slot them as our 4th and 5th starter. I rather see Morgan sent down to be extended first.

As for Battenfield, remember what BHC said ... with control issues that his stuff says something as to how well it compensates for control issues (paraphrase). We are wowed by his numbers last year but his K to BB dropped from high A to AA with each jump (10:1 at A+ to 7:1 at AA to 5:1 with us). Still good but he was sitting about 67% strikes to balls all season (few high 50s with us though). This year, it is sitting at 63%. It is amazing, but those 4% points from mid-60 to low-60, is all the difference in a good K/BB and bad numbers. I am assuming the Tribe is adjusting Battenfield and Myers because there is a good K/BB that you can get away with at lower levels and being accurate in exact location is another thing. Think of Castro and knowing where ball is going. I was laughing at my daughters coach as he was trying to get our catcher to set up low and away (getting her to go more off plate -- and finally did after few frantic seconds of him actually yelling more ... more was he tapped his outside leg). Yet, the pitcher threw one up and over middle of plate for a strike (swing and miss). K/BB at lower level can be misleading if the ball totally misses the intended location.

Guardians have their way of doing things ... but when was the last pitcher we traded for to be in bigs? Usually, just relievers like Rincon and Miller. Few flyers like Santos and Castro and Rodgers ... But, when was last starter seriously other than possible FA 5th guy to fill out rotation in non-competitive year?

The trades for Battenfield, Pilkington, and Myers were brilliant:

-Pilkington has already demonstrated that he can be an effective ML SP so there is no arguing about him. He didn't have it the other day, but a lot of that was due to shitty defense and a couple of bloop hits. Those factors compounded his difficulty getting ahead of hitters. His performance prior to that was fantastic and against one of the better offensive teams in baseball. His current ERA is 3.75 and his FIP is 2.74. He's got 15 SO in 12 IP. He's as good or better than Plesac or Civale.

-Myers is struggling a bit this year, but he has 4 average or better pitches and a history of throwing strikes. With him and Battenfield not posting their typical numbers my guess is that they are working on a mechanical change, a new pitch or both. Also, it's early to be jumping to any conclusions and ignoring what any of these 3 have done as prospects is poor judgement.

-Battenfield is a ML MOR SP all day long right now. His FB has been up to 98 and he has 3 other average or better offerings that he tunnels exceptionally well. He's been a fantastic SP prospect since being drafted and there's no doubt in my mind that he'd be better than Plesac and Civale right now. He has had absolutely no control issues whatsoever until this season so take from that what you will. For me, understanding what this organization has done with SP prospects, I'm going with mechanics, a new pitch or both.

None of these guys are anything like Castro, who has very good potential himself. His issue is controlling the insane movement on his FB.

Quantrill was the last SP we traded for to be in the bigs and Battenfield has been better than he was and it's not even close. Prior to Cal there was Clevinger, Bauer, Kluber, Carrasco, and Logan Allen Sr. How far do you want to go back? Yes, the Guardians have their way of doing things and they are the reason you see a guy like Tanner Bibee drafted under the radar and become a stud in short order. Don't like that example then how about Shane Bieber? You don't think they do the same thing when taking SP prospects from other organizations? There's a reason they acquired Battenfield, Pilkington and Myers and a random fan trying to dissect a pitching prospect's performance has little to no value because all you have is numbers to go by. You're missing the underlying reasons and you can't factor those into the "advanced metrics". The sarcasm should be jumping out of the screen at you right now.

 

[macbdog]

So at what point do the Gs finally fire Ty Van Burkleo? There was a rumor in the offseason he was fired, yet I keep seeing the signs he is still around. Is he possibly hiding somewhere in the Prog, giving out bad hitting advice?

 

[petes999]

The trades for Battenfield, Pilkington, and Myers were brilliant:

-Pilkington has already demonstrated that he can be an effective ML SP so there is no arguing about him. He didn't have it the other day, but a lot of that was due to shitty defense and a couple of bloop hits. Those factors compounded his difficulty getting ahead of hitters. His performance prior to that was fantastic and against one of the better offensive teams in baseball. His current ERA is 3.75 and his FIP is 2.74. He's got 15 SO in 12 IP. He's as good or better than Plesac or Civale.

-Myers is struggling a bit this year, but he has 4 average or better pitches and a history of throwing strikes. With him and Battenfield not posting their typical numbers my guess is that they are working on a mechanical change, a new pitch or both. Also, it's early to be jumping to any conclusions and ignoring what any of these 3 have done as prospects is poor judgement.

-Battenfield is a ML MOR SP all day long right now. His FB has been up to 98 and he has 3 other average or better offerings that he tunnels exceptionally well. He's been a fantastic SP prospect since being drafted and there's no doubt in my mind that he'd be better than Plesac and Civale right now. He has had absolutely no control issues whatsoever until this season so take from that what you will. For me, understanding what this organization has done with SP prospects, I'm going with mechanics, a new pitch or both.

None of these guys are anything like Castro, who has very good potential himself. His issue is controlling the insane movement on his FB.

Quantrill was the last SP we traded for to be in the bigs and Battenfield has been better than he was and it's not even close. Prior to Cal there was Clevinger, Bauer, Kluber, Carrasco, and Logan Allen Sr. How far do you want to go back? Yes, the Guardians have their way of doing things and they are the reason you see a guy like Tanner Bibee drafted under the radar and become a stud in short order. Don't like that example then how about Shane Bieber? You don't think they do the same thing when taking SP prospects from other organizations? There's a reason they acquired Battenfield, Pilkington and Myers and a random fan trying to dissect a pitching prospect's performance has little to no value because all you have is numbers to go by. You're missing the underlying reasons and you can't factor those into the "advanced metrics". The sarcasm should be jumping out of the screen at you right now.

I think I wasn't clear on my point. You wanted to promote Pilk and Battenfield or trade for some mlb pitcher to fill out our staff. I am just saying any trade candidate for Guardians needs more time in minors to learn our way before being mlb ready. We just dont buy high (ready to be 4th/5th starter day 1) but rather take a guy that we can mold our way (not an overnight success).

Kluber - 55 minor starts with us
Cookie - 31 minor starts (and bullpen duty)
Clevinger - 59 minor starts
Allen Sr - hard to compare as 2019 - 5 starts AAA then Covid for 2020 but was fringe AAA/MLB guy anyways
Bauer - He even had 29 AAA starts in 2013/14 with us...

So, I just don't see Tribe trading for anyone right now to take Civale/Plesac place as they won't have time to learn our way before as you said being overrun by Espino/Curry/Allen Jr/etc.

And, I wouldn't mind seeing more of Pilk or Battenfield later. But with Battenfield, I think we can agree he is being tinkered with. I like to see his strike rate up to 67-70% before a promotion. His strike rate for April and May is still down around 64/63% respectively (not a bump yet to survive MLB patient hitters). I also don't mind Pilk (said a better version of Allen Sr who I wasnt high on when we traded for him). However, I also wonder if his MLB numbers are better than AAA as he is working on stuff at AAA but hides it at MLB as he only goes 3 to 3-2/3 innings (can survive on 2-3 pitches vs 3-4 needed for longer duration through the line up 2-3 times). His FB/Change/Slider has been thrown 58%/21%/13% = 92% of total. And, guys are hitting his FB at .308 BA. Thus, he needs to work on his offspeed so guys are not sitting on that FB.

These guys can be something down the road (maybe next year even) but let's not just assume a GM is going to trade a bonafide #4 starter from get go for our rentals we have to trade (not getting a Lodolo for Rosario). Battenfield may become a Kluber lite MOR guy someday but even Kluber wasn't Kluber when we gave up a lot more for him than Battenfield (Westbrook rental >>>>> Hernandez rental). Pilk can be our #6 starter this year and maybe #5 next year. But, I don't know if we can contend and have same luck with Batten/Pilk this year as we did with Civale and Plesac (can get lucky - better than expected results every once-in-a-while but not always). If we trade Plesac for prospects ... then fine play Pilk (see if he sinks or swims) but I would assume we wont be serious contenders with that thought process. That is why I said Morgan is #5 starter if that trade happens or a serious injury to one of our starters.

 

[Huber.]

So at what point do the Gs finally fire Ty Van Burkleo? There was a rumor in the offseason he was fired, yet I keep seeing the signs he is still around. Is he possibly hiding somewhere in the Prog, giving out bad hitting advice?

At what point do they clean house on their farm system hitting staff? Or have they?

 

[petes999]

Also note on Pilk, he has only thrown FB and slider to LHB (change only to righties and 1 sinker). So, he has to find another pitch to lefties for when teams stack lefties on him ... can't survive on 2 pitches as starter unless FB is 99 mph ...

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The Guardians are 1-21 when they get 0 or 1 hit with RISP. When they get two or more hits with RISP they're 18-3.

This has to be the #1 factor in winning or losing for this team.

Just get two hits with RISP and they win 86% of the time. When they don't they have less than a 5% chance of winning.

 

[CDAV45]

I think I wasn't clear on my point. You wanted to promote Pilk and Battenfield or trade for some mlb pitcher to fill out our staff. I am just saying any trade candidate for Guardians needs more time in minors to learn our way before being mlb ready. We just dont buy high (ready to be 4th/5th starter day 1) but rather take a guy that we can mold our way (not an overnight success).

Kluber - 55 minor starts with us
Cookie - 31 minor starts (and bullpen duty)
Clevinger - 59 minor starts
Allen Sr - hard to compare as 2019 - 5 starts AAA then Covid for 2020 but was fringe AAA/MLB guy anyways
Bauer - He even had 29 AAA starts in 2013/14 with us...

So, I just don't see Tribe trading for anyone right now to take Civale/Plesac place as they won't have time to learn our way before as you said being overrun by Espino/Curry/Allen Jr/etc.

And, I wouldn't mind seeing more of Pilk or Battenfield later. But with Battenfield, I think we can agree he is being tinkered with. I like to see his strike rate up to 67-70% before a promotion. His strike rate for April and May is still down around 64/63% respectively (not a bump yet to survive MLB patient hitters). I also don't mind Pilk (said a better version of Allen Sr who I wasnt high on when we traded for him). However, I also wonder if his MLB numbers are better than AAA as he is working on stuff at AAA but hides it at MLB as he only goes 3 to 3-2/3 innings (can survive on 2-3 pitches vs 3-4 needed for longer duration through the line up 2-3 times). His FB/Change/Slider has been thrown 58%/21%/13% = 92% of total. And, guys are hitting his FB at .308 BA. Thus, he needs to work on his offspeed so guys are not sitting on that FB.

These guys can be something down the road (maybe next year even) but let's not just assume a GM is going to trade a bonafide #4 starter from get go for our rentals we have to trade (not getting a Lodolo for Rosario). Battenfield may become a Kluber lite MOR guy someday but even Kluber wasn't Kluber when we gave up a lot more for him than Battenfield (Westbrook rental >>>>> Hernandez rental). Pilk can be our #6 starter this year and maybe #5 next year. But, I don't know if we can contend and have same luck with Batten/Pilk this year as we did with Civale and Plesac (can get lucky - better than expected results every once-in-a-while but not always). If we trade Plesac for prospects ... then fine play Pilk (see if he sinks or swims) but I would assume we wont be serious contenders with that thought process. That is why I said Morgan is #5 starter if that trade happens or a serious injury to one of our starters.

It's a poor comparison. There's a lot more to it that I don't care to get into. Let's suffice it to say that pitching development is a bit different than it was even 10 yrs ago. Kluber was never the prospect Battenfield is and how did that turn out? No, I'm not saying Battenfield is the next Kluber. Yes, I am saying you're moving the goalposts for SP prospects. Especially when all of the current rotation members have fewer SO than IP. Which of the 5 current starters are averaging 1 SO/IP? The answer is 0, but you can check if you like.

You don't know if this team is closer to contention with or without Plesac and/or Civale. The current evidence suggest without, but you only seem to be interested in small samples for certain prospects. There is no argument that neither Plesac or Civale are long for this rotation or that this is the season to get a look at prospects. I suspect that the current rotation will look nothing like the rotation at the end of this season. There's just too much talent coming and it's coming fast. Your argument is the same type that didn't think OGon deserved a look because numbers could be dug up that suggested he wouldn't walk enough while ignoring the entirety of his game. He could fail and so could all of Battenfield, Pilkington, and Myers, but they deserve a look and right now is the best time to do it. After this season, there is a very good chance that Espino, Williams, Morris, and even Gaddis will be pushing for their first ML innings. That's not even mentioning Hankins and Torres.

I said it somewhere else here, but I'll say it again. I'd trade Bieber by the deadline if he continues to pitch well and the return is desirable. If a good deal is to be had I'd part with one of Plesac or Civale this season as well. Yep, that's aggressive, but this organization is positioned to be aggressive with the talent it has accumulated.

 

[CDAV45]

Also note on Pilk, he has only thrown FB and slider to LHB (change only to righties and 1 sinker). So, he has to find another pitch to lefties for when teams stack lefties on him ... can't survive on 2 pitches as starter unless FB is 99 mph ...

Huh? Which team is going to stack lefties when Pilkington pitches? LHH are batting .143 against him.

"Pilkington offers a four-pitch mix from a three-quarter arm slot. His fastball sits 90-93 and tops out at 95 mph. He has a fading changeup is his best pitch along with an average curveball and slider."

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I wouldn't discard Civale too soon. His last start he allowed just three hits in six scoreless innings. OK, it was against the Tigers, but he still looked much better.

He also had a stretch in his previous start where he retired 11 Twins in a row. He might be starting to figure it out.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Here's some more data on the Guardians connection between winning and hitting with RISP.

In 24 losses:

They got 0 or 1 hit with RISP in 21 of 24 games.
They average 5.5 at-bats per game with RISP.
They're hitting .129 with RISP (17-for-132).

In 19 wins:

They got 2 or more hits with RISP 18 of 19 games.
They average 11.1 at-bats per game with RISP.
They're hitting .370 with RISP (78-for-211).

But the key is definitely getting 2 or more hits with RISP. When they do they win 86% of the time. When they don't they're 1-21.

 

[Real Deal]

Can we stop pointing out about our offense averaging X amount of runs when the first handful of games was fantasy sports heaven?

The offense is an issue, Sticks deserved better.

 

[petes999]

Huh? Which team is going to stack lefties when Pilkington pitches? LHH are batting .143 against him.

"Pilkington offers a four-pitch mix from a three-quarter arm slot. His fastball sits 90-93 and tops out at 95 mph. He has a fading changeup is his best pitch along with an average curveball and slider."

I FUped on the lefty / lefty split. But, it is still vailed in the sense that if you got a few good lefties that have good splits ... you are not going to fool them with just throwing 2 pitches to them 2-3 times through the order (why relievers don't go through order more than once on their 2 pitch mix) - especially as teams see him for 2nd or 3rd game. I am just saying most of our pitchers just didn't jump from AA to MLB as a plan (especially after trade and we are changing mechanics) versus emergency. Guardians just don't rush them up till they are ready. sOne thing to say he has average curve/slider, another of letting him develop it in AAA (other than spot starts due to no one else there to bring up for DH/injury). And if they are mlb average now, he has thrown them 3%/5% respectively (and only 1 slider to lefty). As I said, reason AAA numbers are higher is he is probably trying to fine tune it there than mlb. If he fine tunes it in next 2 months before deadline, fine (but where is best place for it AAA or up as our 6th pitcher in late June/July for DHs) -- then he can replace plesac/Civale over Morgan long-term.

And, my posts will confirm, I was for bringing Oscar up to see how he would adjust to better offspeed. Due to softball, I only saw he last at bat yesterday where he was thrown all FB and did good reaching outside on 2-3 ball 4s before whiffing on one on inside 1/3rd. Yet, to assume he is 400+ hitter like Kwan was is overselling too (like Pilk>Civale now). We will see what happens by year end ... And, I wouldn't mind seeing Plesac traded for more talent (even said it back in pre-ST). But, I assumed Battenfield and Myers would be further ahead than they are for options. Yet, I would watch their strike rates ... sitting in low 60s (like Batten is this year even compared to 67% last year doesnt cut it in bigs as Konnors 56% strike rate vs Det ends up with leads to 4 BB/4Ks in 3-1/3 innings on 87 pitches). I don't care about seeing eye singles that drop that affects FIP/ERA splits. Det was a team that he should be attacking with deep outfield and few real hitters vs say a NYY bombers (or Tor) in NY that you got to be careful to not miss over plate too much. If Pilk turns it around, great. He actually did better vs Tor 83 pitches over 3-2/3 with 3 hits, 3 BB, 6 ks (for 4.90 ERA). But, overall proof (esp looking at AAA numbers) isn't there yet for 5th pitcher prospect not to getting through 4 innings (even if he was kept in for 10 more pitches in Det for final 2 outs for 97 total pitches ... esp versus Det!! He may get there but I dont know how much development he will get on his secondary pitches when he is doing our DH for 3-4 innings versus focus on those extra pitches to fool mlb hitters to get through line up 2-3 times as our 5th starter over Plesac/Civale.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Can we stop pointing out about our offense averaging X amount of runs when the first handful of games was fantasy sports heaven?

The offense is an issue, Sticks deserved better.

The Guardians have lost seven close games where they could have won with just one or two hits at the right time.

1-for-6 with RISP; lost by 1 run.
1-for-11; lost by 2 runs
3-for-11; lost by 1 run
0-for-8; lost by 2 runs
1-for-8; lost by 1 run
0-for-4; lost by 1 run
1-for-5; lost by 1 run
0-for-5; lost by 1 run (yesterday)

The good news, I suppose, is they're not getting blown out. Only six of 24 losses have been by 4 runs or more. Half of their losses have been by 1 or 2 runs. If they could just balance their run scoring better they'd be over .500. They're +10 on the season.

 

[daddywags]

One more big bat to go with Jose.