Alright, lets break this down a bit. Your prediction of how every other team does in the East seems highly optimistic while your read of the Cavs is really pessimistic. That already is a pretty bad start, but lets look at the numbers from this season first.
The Cavs won 44 games this year, ergo they tied for 7th most wins in the East. That is a top 8 record. And while wins are the ultimate metric, there are other things we can look at for how good or bad a team was. PDIFF would have the Cavs as the 6th best team in the East this year. Cavs are 13th in the league and 6th in the East by adjusted net rating. So, all the math says the Cavaliers were in fact one of the 8 best teams in the East and top 15 in the league.
But they are in the lottery and lost in the play-in, you say, clearly they are not a playoff team. Regardless of how you feel about the format, this is what happens in a single elimination format. Luck matters more than relative talent difference. We see this in the NCAA tournament every year. But, based on the regular season, the Cavs are ALREADY a playoff team.
Now, lets talk about the rest of the East.
Milwaukee is probably still going to be a championship caliber team next year and will likely be better than us. I won't argue that one. I do think we showed we can play them very tough and could give them issues in a playoff series.
Boston is also probably going to be be better than us next year. Their star duo of Jay and Jay is very solid and they have a strong defense built on Marcus Smart at PoA and Timelord in the back. However, their depth is utter trash. When a team needs to rely on Payton Pritchard for minutes, they are vulnerable. PP is around the same caliber player as Stevens. Other depth pieces like Nesmith are worse than Cedi. So yes, Boston's top end is good, but they are very very beatable.
Philly is actually questionable. Embiid will continue to be an absolute monster but beyond that? Harden's age is showing. Did you know he was in the middle of his worst rim finishing season since he was a rookie? If he can't get his bullshit superstar calls, Harden is barely better than a Dennis Schroeder. Beyond that, PHI gave up a ton of depth and good role players in that trade (Seth most notably). They are also beatable.
Miami might be the top seed this year, but thats almost entirely because Spo is a wizard. Their roster has a lot of wholes since it relies on an aging Lowry and Tucker to hold down the D. Herro and Bam are their only young talents. Bam is awesome, but Herro is a glorified Jordan Clarkson. And we know Jimmy has been raising some hell recently over there. Might he want out this off-season? Not sure. From a talent perspective we are actually quite close to these guys already.
BKN is huge boom or bust team. KD hasn't been able to stay healthy for a few years now. You never know which Kyrie you are going to get. So now you are left relying on Ben Simmons growing a pair of balls to be there, because the rest of your team after those 3 is a whole lot of yikes. Is anyone that scared of a Patty/Seth/Brown/Kessler/Drummond lineup? Shouldn't be. If they have good health, they will be a competitive team in the East. If not, no chance.
Atlanta is not a better team than us. Trae is great but what do they have after that? Love me some John Collins but he would be the fourth best guy on our team. As is, we nearly beat them with a hobbled Allen and LeVert. I am not scared of this team and neither should you be.
Chicago is a paper tiger. DDR having a career at 32 is a great story, but he won't be able to repeat this performance. Lavine is a great scorer but thats it. Without the Lockdown Bros at full power, their defense is terrible since their anchor is a taller Kevin Love (Vuc). You look at how the Bulls have played this year and their tumble was as bad as ours. They survived because DDR saved their asses with like 4 buzzer beaters in a week. You can't give them a pass for dealing with injuries and not look at how other teams were affected.
Toronto is the other relevant team. They are young, have a great coach in Nurse, but their roster is even more of a wtf than ours. They start 4 wings and a guard and their bench is 3.5 centers. Nurse is making it work, but they are a team that has a lot of solid guys more than any great guys, tho I do believe in my boys Scottie and OG. I think they will be about as good as us next year.
Charlotte is another young team but their roster construction is really flawed. They have no defensive pieces besides Scary Terry and Melo and their defensive anchor is a 6'8 sieve. They can score but they cannot defend a lick. We project better than them.
Finally, lets look at the Cleveland Cavaliers. A team that was projected to win around 25 games this year. They nearly doubled that win projection. They had a undersized back court with tons of questions, no real wings, and a weird shaped roster. Their most interesting players are a third year guard who just over 100 games played in the last 3 years since he left high-school, a rookie big, and a center who was a throwaway in the Harden trade. The rest of their roster included offensively limited wings, a tall bigman converted into a wing, Cedi, the corpse of Kevin Love who looked like a potential locker room issue, and a guy who got dumped by the hapless Twolves for cap space. The one bright spot was a high scoring, high efficiency guard who had a questionable impact on the team game.
So, what happened? They lost their high scoring guard for the season less than 15 games into the year. They lost their backup point guard within 2 months (which greatly understates his impact on the floor). They could not stay healthy as every important rotation player not named Kevin Love missed time. When COVID ran rampant over the NBA in December, the Cavs were among the 3 teams worst hit in terms of missed games. At the deadline, they traded some picks and the expiring for a scoring wing...who promptly got injured and never developed a proper rhythm by the end of the year. They lost their best big wing defender for the season shortly after the all-star break. The best version of their starting 5 envisioned at the trade deadline finally manifested...in the 2nd round of the play-in on the last night of their season.
We also saw their third year point guard develop from an interesting prospect into a bonafide all-star and top 12 offensive player in the NBA. We saw that rookie bigman turn out to be the best defensive rookie bigman since Tim Duncan. We saw the throwaway center turn into an All-star himself and become the NBA's 2nd best rim protector. We saw a gigantic tall ball lineup that countered the NBA's small ball obsession. We saw Kevin Love revive his career as a shooting/rebounding specialist and the best sixth man in the NBA. We saw this team vastly exceed expectations and become one of the best stories in one of the wildest NBA seasons.
You are completely ignoring everything the Cavs accomplished this year. They outperformed all expectations and overcame some horrific injury luck. They were a fun and engaging team to watch all season even when we saw minutes from Tim Frazier, Denzel Valentine, Justin Andersen, and Tacko Fall. And you know what? They will only get better. Our starting lineup day 1 was all under 25. We have three allstar or better level guys who will all improve. We have a 14th pick to do something with. Collin Sexton and Dean Wade will come back. Koby will make other moves to shore up the roster. Calling this team a lottery team is some fucking bullshit.
The off-season can change a lot. Teams will decide to blow it up. Players will move. Other players will work on their games and improve. Old dudes will get older. Its impossible to say the exact composition of opening day rosters, but the Cavs will be on the rise next season.
