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2022 Season | Series #15 | Guardians @ Tigers | May 26-29

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Wow, what's not to like?

Our ace goes 8 innings allowing one run, our leadoff hitter gets on base three times, we get 7 RBI's from the middle of the lineup, our new right fielder gets two more hits, and Miggy grounds into a double play on a 3-0 pitch for just the second time in his career. Insult to injury.

For the Tigers the Castro brothers got 5 of their 10 hits and also a sac fly. Nine singles and one double with the hits well scattered.

Bieber was at 90-91 all day with the fastball but it was so well located they never squared it up.

Oscar Gonzalez came advertised as an undisciplined free swinger who can't hit a breaking ball that big league pitchers would toy with. He wasn't even rostered after last season and could have signed with anybody. But that's not the player I'm seeing so far. He's taking pitches and getting ahead in the count. He's not chasing. He's not swinging and missing. He's hitting the breaking ball. He's using all fields. He already has two doubles to right field. He just looks like a big league hitter who is patient, works the count to his favor, swings at good pitches to hit, and goes to all fields.

Yeah, it's only 8 at-bats but even if he were 0-for-8 I'd say he looks good at the dish and he runs well for a big guy.
 
After eight at-bats Oscar Gonzalez has seen 14 pitches outside the strike zone. He has only swung at two of them - not bad at all.

He's taken 12 balls and 4 strikes - that's 16 pitches taken in 8 at-bats. He has 4 hits (all line drives except for a sharp ground ball) and made 4 outs. Three of his four hits have been to right or center off fastballs; the other was to left off a breaking ball.
 
In the rubber game Tristan McKenzie goes against rookie Elvin Rodriguez in a real heavyweight matchup. McKenzie is listed at 6'5", 165 while Rodriguez is 6'3", 160. This might be the lightest combined weight of starting pitchers in 50 years, if not more. Somebody should look that up.

McKenzie is on a roll with an ERA of 2.70 for the season and 2.04 in his last four starts. He has not faced the Tigers this year, but has done well against most of their hitters. Miggy is 0-for-7 against him lifetime. Willi Castro is 1-for-9, Schoop and Candelario and 1-for-7. Tristan has had problems with Harold Castro (3-for-7) and Barnhart (2-for-2). Harold Castro had three hits yesterday and his batting average is up to .325. He's 6-for-8 in his last two games.

Castro has walked only twice in 80 plate appearances. Tease him on the margins. His career chase rate is over 42%; this year it's 38.2%. He'll swing at almost anything. He hits fastballs well, breaking balls not so much.

Rodriguez, a 24-year-old righty, has only pitched in two games for a total of 7.2 innings. He's allowed 8 earned runs. On paper the Guards have a big advantage in starting pitching, but those are usually the games they lose.

I wonder what it would be like if the G's got out to a big early lead instead of waiting until the last three innings to score most of their runs?
 
No Rosario = victory

And I'm only half joking. Kwan is struggling, but Rosario never EVER takes the walk to load up the bases for Jose's game clinching triple.
Rosario would have gotten himself out, swinging at balls and then Detroit would have pitched around Jose or IBB with a base open and 2 outs. Miller K'd. No runs, still only 2-0 game.
 
DCTribefan said:
I already made the Greinke comp. Maddox struck out 6.1/9 IP over his lengthy career; Glavine at 5.3/9 IP. Buerhle was a tick lower at 5.1. Obviously I’d be thrilled with a Maddox or Glavine career but the signs of decline are evident.
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What signs are evident?

ERA?

This year its 3.19 vs a career 3.28.

FIP?

3.05 vs 3.05.

His ERA and FIP are almost exactly what they were last year.

I'm his only full season (2019) he made 33 starts. His ERA was 3.28 and FIP was 3.32. Both numbers were higher than this years. Hes been better this season so far than he was then.

You simply can't argue that because he isn't doing what he did for twelve starts in 2020 that he has declined. You also have to take into account that in 2020 he faced nobody outside the two Central divisions.

He's changed the way he uses his arsenal.

In 2019 it was 46% FB, 27% slider, 20% curve, 7% change to 38% FB, 41% slider, 18% curve, 3% change.
 
CATS44 said:
You also have to take into account that in 2020 he faced nobody outside the two Central divisions.
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That's a great point which I never thought about. In four of his 12 starts that year he shut out weak sisters KC, Detroit, and Pittsburgh. He never faced the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Astros that year. His ERA was 1.63. His ERA's the year before and after were 3.28 and 3.17. So far this year it's 3.19.

That 1.63 in 2020 was clearly an aberration based on a very short season and an easier than normal slate of opponents.

Somebody mentioned a while back that Lindor's disappointing performance since being traded to the Mets could be partially explained by the fact that he played in the weak A.L. Central, which inflated his statistics. He seems to be back in the saddle this year, however, with an OPS of .811 against a career mark of .820, despite the reduced offense. So I'm skeptical of that theory.
 
One thing that I think is helping Bieber is that his home run to fly ball percentage is 7.7% against a career average of 14%. The fact that balls aren't flying as far as in previous years is helping him, but he's also doing a great job of keeping pitches out of the power zones.

Bieber's K/9 rate has dropped from 12.48 to 8.55 since last year, a decrease of 31%. He's throwing fewer (and slower) fastballs but he's pitching more to weak contact.

Yesterday was a great example. The Tigers' approach was to swing early in the count, figuring once Bieber got two strikes on them it was pretty much over. I think Bieber got through six innings on less than 60 pitches and he ended up pitching 8 innings on fewer than 100 pitches.

I doubt we'll see many more 14 strikeout games, if any, but he may pitch deeper into games.
 
Rodriguez, if he follows form, will face about 21 batters and throw around 75 pitches.

Thats about what he has done at both levels this year in his longer starts.

He started three games against Akron last year. In one he thru 5 IP of no hit ball. He got hammered in the other two.

Palacios, Kwan, and OGonz all had success against him....so when you look at the bottom part of our lineup today, do so with the expectation of good...lol.

Like Wham alluded to, today is an opportunity to take Detroit out of the game early.
 
Greinke is a borderline, it not Hall of Famer in the modern ERA and at 38 he is still going fairly strong! If he has that type of career I'd take it in a heartbeat
 
Real Deal said:
Kwan's last 29 games:

.186/.270/.525
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macbdog said:
Those folks who put even a penny on him being ROY might as well have burned that money.
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Pitchers have adjusted and I also heard from I think it was Hammy, that Kwan isn't playing his type of game at the plate either right now. He has to make the adjustment back while still playing his game...
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
That's a great point which I never thought about. In four of his 12 starts that year he shut out weak sisters KC, Detroit, and Pittsburgh. He never faced the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Astros that year. His ERA was 1.63. His ERA's the year before and after were 3.28 and 3.17. So far this year it's 3.19.

That 1.63 in 2020 was clearly an aberration based on a very short season and an easier than normal slate of opponents.

Somebody mentioned a while back that Lindor's disappointing performance since being traded to the Mets could be partially explained by the fact that he played in the weak A.L. Central, which inflated his statistics. He seems to be back in the saddle this year, however, with an OPS of .811 against a career mark of .820, despite the reduced offense. So I'm skeptical of that theory.
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Bieber of course faced one team outside the division in 2020 - he got shelled
 
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