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2022 Season Series #31 | Guardians at Red Sox | July 26-29, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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After splitting with the White Sox the Guardians move on to Boston for a four-game series at Fenway. The Red Sox swept the G’s in Cleveland on June 24-26, but that was the high water mark of the Red Sox season to date. After that series they were 42-31 but have since gone 6-17. They have lost 13 of 16.

Since sweeping the Guardians in late June Fangraphs ranks the Red Sox 25th in WAR, 24th in offense, 24th in defense, 25th in wRC+, last in team ERA (6.77!), last in FIP, 29th in pitching WAR, 28th in starters' WAR, and 22nd in bullpen WAR. We seem to be catching them at the right time as they are in free fall.

Injuries have played a big part in the Red Sox struggles. Nathan Eovaldi was out five weeks. Rafael Devers and Trevor Story are on the 10-day IL while Rich Hill, Chris Sale, and Michael Wacha (2.69 ERA) are also out. After being out all year Sale pitched in two games before going down again last week. They have nine pitchers on IL.

Nick Pivetta takes on Zach Plesac in the opener. Pivetta has been the Sox’s most dependable starter, leading the team with 19 starts. He’s 8-7 with a 4.50 ERA. Pivetta is a 29-year-old right-hander with a career line of 38-45, 5.06, mostly in the National League.

Pivetta has been a tale of two seasons. In his first 16 starts he was 8-5, 3.23. But his last three starts have been disasters; 13.1 innings, 20 earned runs, 23 hits, and 7 walks. 30 of the 68 batters he faced reached base. To be fair, the opponents were the Rays (once) and Yankees (twice).

The question is whether we’ll get the guy who had a 3.23 ERA in his first 16 starts or the guy who got hammered in his last three. He’ll have had nine days off to try and get straightened out.

Plesac has allowed just 16 earned runs in his last 9 starts for a 2.84 ERA. He has not faced the Sox this year. J.D. Martinez is 5-for-8 against him with two doubles and a home run. Martinez is listed as day-to-day so hopefully he will not play tonight.

The Red Sox have been one of the worst teams in baseball over the last 23 games - offensively, defensively, and pitching. Rich Hill, who beat the Guardians in June, is out with an injury. Their best hitter, Devers, is out. He’s hitting .324/.981 and was 6-for-13 in the first series between these teams. Christian Arroyo, who went 3-for-4 in the first series, is also out.

Alex Verdugo was 5-for-11 (.455) against the G’s but is hitting .259 against the rest of baseball.

The Guardians are catching them at a good time, but is this the week the Red Sox get themselves back on track?

The Guardians have not announced a starter for Tuesday. It won’t be Pilkington, who pitched Saturday, or anybody from the normal rotation since Civale is out. The Red Sox have not announced a starter for that game, either.
 
I feel like the Gs should have Plesac dealt before he has to face Boston. Hopefully I'm wrong and his performance just boosts his value.
 
Zach Pluh-Sotch.
 
I feel like the Gs should have Plesac dealt before he has to face Boston. Hopefully I'm wrong and his performance just boosts his value.
Who would take his spot in the rotation?
 
Not getting a third win vs Chicago hurt, because of Chicagos edge in schedule the rest of the way. We can't afford to tread water vs the White Sox.

That leaves us with seven games on the road vs Boston and Tampa for the FO to make its decision in re this season.

The last time we played Boston, they were red hot, having won four in a row and 8 out of 10. Now they are on a five game losing streak and have lost 9 out of ten. In July they are 5-15.

We can't afford to tread water much longer.
 
I fail to see how any series or the overall 1st half results affect what or how they are going to do things. The plan was to expose as much of the young talent as possible. That's pretty much what they've done and have been fairly successful in doing so.
 
I fail to see how any series or the overall 1st half results affect what or how they are going to do things. The plan was to expose as much of the young talent as possible. That's pretty much what they've done and have been fairly successful in doing so.
Eleven (11) newbies and counting, successful...
 
Lets count the newbies and their respective successes.

Kwan...unquestioned success and a core piece going forward

OGonz...110 wRC+ powered by a .351 BABIP in 130 PAs. Good start, but hardly definitive.

Jones...147 wRC+ powered by a .435 BABIP in 44 PAs, but 29.5% K rate. Hardly significant either way yet.

Palacios....79 wRC+ in 93 PAs, with really poor defense. Thats not success.

Call....really?

Lavastida.. one hit and three walks in 15 PAs for a 22 wRC+.

Arias...a -30 wRC+ is not a success.

Pilkington....not spectacular, but has done a decent job of sticking a finger in the dike.

Tully....fodder.

McCarty...fodder.

If success is measured as any MLB production not based upon SSS driven by unsustainable underlying stats, we've had two successes.

Doesn't mean that several of them can't or won't become productive down the road, but its not been a successful 2022 MLB season overall for the rooks.
 
Wow! Here I was thinking that Hedges, Straw, Reyes, and Clement sucking the place up had more to do with any lack of success this team is enduring. What was I thinking. Instead, I should have been looking at OGon and Jones' good production and trying to find some obscure excuse for it.
 
Lets count the newbies and their respective successes.

Kwan...unquestioned success and a core piece going forward

OGonz...110 wRC+ powered by a .351 BABIP in 130 PAs. Good start, but hardly definitive.

Jones...147 wRC+ powered by a .435 BABIP in 44 PAs, but 29.5% K rate. Hardly significant either way yet.

Palacios....79 wRC+ in 93 PAs, with really poor defense. Thats not success.

Call....really?

Lavastida.. one hit and three walks in 15 PAs for a 22 wRC+.

Arias...a -30 wRC+ is not a success.

Pilkington....not spectacular, but has done a decent job of sticking a finger in the dike.

Tully....fodder.

McCarty...fodder.

If success is measured as any MLB production not based upon SSS driven by unsustainable underlying stats, we've had two successes.

Doesn't mean that several of them can't or won't become productive down the road, but its not been a successful 2022 MLB season overall for the rooks.
I consider churning through guys a success.

I'm glad we're getting to see guys like Palacios up here at the big show. When we can definitively rule guys out, it makes the future start to align.

For the OF, we still have:
  1. Kwan
  2. Straw
  3. Jones
  4. OGon
  5. Valera
  6. Benson
  7. Call
  8. Brennan
If we can get looks at everyone on that list besides Valera this season, that would be huge. I'd like to get that list down to 4-5 guys heading into 2023.

We also have to figure out what we want to do at DH, with Franmil currently there, a guy like Noel coming up through the minors quickly, and guys like Josh Naylor and Nolan Jones looking like they could slide into that slot as well.

On the infield, we have to figure out who gets the starting spot next to Gimenez, and who's going to play 1B.

There's a lot that we have to sort through, and the more we can figure that out this year, the better.
 
I consider churning through guys a success.

I'm glad we're getting to see guys like Palacios up here at the big show. When we can definitively rule guys out, it makes the future start to align.

For the OF, we still have:
  1. Kwan
  2. Straw
  3. Jones
  4. OGon
  5. Valera
  6. Benson
  7. Call
  8. Brennan
If we can get looks at everyone on that list besides Valera this season, that would be huge. I'd like to get that list down to 4-5 guys heading into 2023.

We also have to figure out what we want to do at DH, with Franmil currently there, a guy like Noel coming up through the minors quickly, and guys like Josh Naylor and Nolan Jones looking like they could slide into that slot as well.

On the infield, we have to figure out who gets the starting spot next to Gimenez, and who's going to play 1B.

There's a lot that we have to sort through, and the more we can figure that out this year, the better.
This^
 
Tired of playing against all these socks.
 

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