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The calendar turns to August with the Guardians one game out of first place and one game ahead of the White Sox. It's a three-team logjam at the top of the A.L. Central, which is one of only two division races that has not been pretty much decided.
After going 6-5 on the road to start the second half the Guardians return home for their first home series in 17 days. This one is against a rarely seen opponent - the Arizona Diamondbacks. These teams have only played 19 games against each other all time. The Snakes have not been seen in Cleveland since 2014.
The D-Backs are in last place in the N.L. West; 45-56 overall and 18-29 on the road. They are 5-4 since the break but lost their last three to Atlanta, scoring just four runs. They’re .500 at home but 11 games under on the road. Maybe they'll trade somebody today or tomorrow. (Maybe we will, too).
The D-Backs are below average offensively, ranking 20th in runs per game and 26th in wRC+. They hit better at home and against left-handed pitching, but will face three right-handed starters in this series. As a team they’re hitting .219/.685 against right-handed pitching and .222/.702 on the road, where they average 4.1 runs per game.
Ketel Marte leads the team in OPS at .812 followed by Jake McCarthy at .761. Marte hit six home runs in July. Christian Walker, a right-handed hitting first baseman, has 23 home runs but is hitting only .200.
The D-Backs are more of a “walk and a blast” team than a small-ball offense. They rank 23rd in on-base percentage and 28th in batting average, but they have excellent plate discipline, ranking 6th in walks per game. They also have power, ranking 3rd in home runs per game on the road, so they are a dangerous team, capable of drawing a walk or two and then going deep. They have five players in double figures in home runs. They can erase a 3-0 lead quickly.
In terms of team ERA they rank 22nd overall, but their road ERA is 4.87 against 3.70 at home so their pitchers have not been nearly as effective on the road which obviously contributes to their 18-29 road record.
RHP Zach Davies, 29, starts tonight against Quantrill. Davies is coming off a shoulder injury and last pitched on June 25. He was outstanding in June with a 2.56 ERA in five starts. On the season he’s 4-2, 3.94. Since he hasn’t faced major league batters in over five weeks it’s tough to say how effective he will be or how long they will let him go. His career line is 58-52, 4.13.
Quantrill is coming off a bad start against the Red Sox in Fenway where he allowed five earned runs in 5.1 innings. He has been much better at home this year with a home ERA of 3.19 versus 4.96 on the road. Davies has also been a little better at home so the pitching matchup should favor the Guardians, especially with Davies probably on a pitch count.
I think the key will be to take advantage of the D-Back’s road ERA of 4.87 to score five or more runs per game while holding down their offense. They don’t get a lot of runners on base (23rd in OBP) but they hit more home runs on the road than all but two other teams so the Guardian pitchers have to be careful with their power bats, especially with men on base.
Against a team that is 28th in batting average but 6th in walks it makes sense to attack them aggressively, especially with nobody on base, and not walk a batter that is going to score on a subsequent home run. We’ve seen too much of that recently.
Former Indian Jordan Luplow is a typical Diamondback, hitting only .172 but with 11 home runs in 157 at-bats. Luplow killed lefties in Cleveland and he hasn’t changed, hitting just .143 against righties. Eight of his 11 home runs have come against lefties. He won’t see any lefties in this series - it will be Quantrill, McKenzie, and Bieber.
This could be a low scoring series as the D-Backs don’t hit well on the road and against RHP’s, but they will go deep if you make a mistake. The Arizona starters for all three games have ERA’s under 4.00, including lefty Madison Bumgarner, who goes against Bieber on Wednesday, so the G's will be facing quality starters.
The D-Backs bullpen ranks 23rd in ERA and FIP so another key will be getting the starters out of the game in the middle innings. The Guardians do a great job of driving up pitch counts (96 pitches in 4.1 innings by McClannahan yesterday is a great example) so they need to keep doing that, especially against teams with bullpen issues.
I don't know what the injury situation is for Naylor and Miller, so we may be playing Ernie Clement at first base some more. Clement is 1-for-12 in his last four games.
After going 6-5 on the road to start the second half the Guardians return home for their first home series in 17 days. This one is against a rarely seen opponent - the Arizona Diamondbacks. These teams have only played 19 games against each other all time. The Snakes have not been seen in Cleveland since 2014.
The D-Backs are in last place in the N.L. West; 45-56 overall and 18-29 on the road. They are 5-4 since the break but lost their last three to Atlanta, scoring just four runs. They’re .500 at home but 11 games under on the road. Maybe they'll trade somebody today or tomorrow. (Maybe we will, too).
The D-Backs are below average offensively, ranking 20th in runs per game and 26th in wRC+. They hit better at home and against left-handed pitching, but will face three right-handed starters in this series. As a team they’re hitting .219/.685 against right-handed pitching and .222/.702 on the road, where they average 4.1 runs per game.
Ketel Marte leads the team in OPS at .812 followed by Jake McCarthy at .761. Marte hit six home runs in July. Christian Walker, a right-handed hitting first baseman, has 23 home runs but is hitting only .200.
The D-Backs are more of a “walk and a blast” team than a small-ball offense. They rank 23rd in on-base percentage and 28th in batting average, but they have excellent plate discipline, ranking 6th in walks per game. They also have power, ranking 3rd in home runs per game on the road, so they are a dangerous team, capable of drawing a walk or two and then going deep. They have five players in double figures in home runs. They can erase a 3-0 lead quickly.
In terms of team ERA they rank 22nd overall, but their road ERA is 4.87 against 3.70 at home so their pitchers have not been nearly as effective on the road which obviously contributes to their 18-29 road record.
RHP Zach Davies, 29, starts tonight against Quantrill. Davies is coming off a shoulder injury and last pitched on June 25. He was outstanding in June with a 2.56 ERA in five starts. On the season he’s 4-2, 3.94. Since he hasn’t faced major league batters in over five weeks it’s tough to say how effective he will be or how long they will let him go. His career line is 58-52, 4.13.
Quantrill is coming off a bad start against the Red Sox in Fenway where he allowed five earned runs in 5.1 innings. He has been much better at home this year with a home ERA of 3.19 versus 4.96 on the road. Davies has also been a little better at home so the pitching matchup should favor the Guardians, especially with Davies probably on a pitch count.
I think the key will be to take advantage of the D-Back’s road ERA of 4.87 to score five or more runs per game while holding down their offense. They don’t get a lot of runners on base (23rd in OBP) but they hit more home runs on the road than all but two other teams so the Guardian pitchers have to be careful with their power bats, especially with men on base.
Against a team that is 28th in batting average but 6th in walks it makes sense to attack them aggressively, especially with nobody on base, and not walk a batter that is going to score on a subsequent home run. We’ve seen too much of that recently.
Former Indian Jordan Luplow is a typical Diamondback, hitting only .172 but with 11 home runs in 157 at-bats. Luplow killed lefties in Cleveland and he hasn’t changed, hitting just .143 against righties. Eight of his 11 home runs have come against lefties. He won’t see any lefties in this series - it will be Quantrill, McKenzie, and Bieber.
This could be a low scoring series as the D-Backs don’t hit well on the road and against RHP’s, but they will go deep if you make a mistake. The Arizona starters for all three games have ERA’s under 4.00, including lefty Madison Bumgarner, who goes against Bieber on Wednesday, so the G's will be facing quality starters.
The D-Backs bullpen ranks 23rd in ERA and FIP so another key will be getting the starters out of the game in the middle innings. The Guardians do a great job of driving up pitch counts (96 pitches in 4.1 innings by McClannahan yesterday is a great example) so they need to keep doing that, especially against teams with bullpen issues.
I don't know what the injury situation is for Naylor and Miller, so we may be playing Ernie Clement at first base some more. Clement is 1-for-12 in his last four games.
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