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After a 3-3 west coast trip the Guardians return home for six games against the Orioles and Mariners in a week that could have a lot to say about who wins the A.L. Central. After this weekend the G’s have 30 games left; 3 against Tampa at home, 8 against the Twins (5 at home), and 22 against teams below .500.
If we can get through the next six games and still be ahead of the Twins (or just even) we should be in very good shape since the Twins play 18 of their last 30 on the road and they are 27-33 away from home.
The Guardians are 32-25 at home while the Orioles are 30-36 on the road. The Guardians won the series in Baltimore 2-1 in June with a combined score of 13-10. Both teams had Monday off.
The Orioles are hot, with a record of 20-14 since the break. The Guardians are 21-15. The Birds have won 5 of their last 7.
The Orioles are 19th in scoring, 25th in on-base percentage, 21st in batting average and walks per game, and 14th in slugging percentage. They depend more on home runs than on small ball to score. In the first series the O’s scored 7 of their 10 runs on homers, including all 5 runs in their only win. They remind me a lot of Seattle in that way.
On the road they average 4.1 runs per game. The O’s are excellent at home (37-24) but 30-36 away so they have a very big home/away differential.
The Guardians will have their top three starters going; McKenzie, Bieber, and Quantrill. The Orioles will be starting three right-handers, which is good for us.
Quantrill starts tonight against 30-year-old minor league lifer Spenser Watkins, who is in his second season in the bigs. He has only 53 strikeouts in 84 innings so he’s obviously a pitch-to-contact guy. The most pitches he’s thrown in a game is 88.
Lefties are hitting .277/.812 against him. He was sent back to the minors for five weeks after compiling a 6.00 ERA in April and May. Since returning his ERA is 2.83 in 10 starts. He’s figured something out.
One interesting stat about Watkins is that on 3-2 counts batters are hitting just .043 against him (1-for-23 with 10 K’s). However, he has allowed 16 walks, which tells me he doesn’t throw strikes on 3-2. If you chase it you’re out, if you don’t it’s a walk. Considering he’s given up just one hit in 39 plate appearances with a 3-2 count it’s clear he’s depending on hitters to chase and would rather walk the batter than risk giving up a blast.
The key is to get ahead of Watkins. With counts of 1-0, 2-0, and 2-1 opponents are hitting .379, .444, and .435. But when the batter has two strikes on him they’re hitting .152. Obviously when Watkins gets two strikes he’s going out of the zone; the key is not to chase. Even on a 3-2 pitch he’s going out of the zone.
It seems to me that lately the Guardians’ hitters have been chasing bad pitches relentlessly, especially with two strikes. It’s like they’re terrified to get called out and swing at anything, even pitches at the armpits or in the dirt. Kwan is the only exception and maybe Hedges.
Watkins is a guy who doesn’t have great stuff or he would have made it to the majors before age 29. Looking at his numbers he’s clearly a breaking ball pitcher who teases batters into chasing bad pitches. I hope the Guardians understand what they’re up against and don’t play into his hands.
Quantrill has a 2.25 ERA in his last five starts and is 6-0 at home. He has never lost a game at the Prog and has been getting great run support this year. Hopefully that will continue. He has not faced the O’s this year and current Oriole players have just 13 career at-bats against him.
In the series in Baltimore the Orioles hit just .143 against Cleveland pitching. Their ROY candidate Adley Rutschman had just been called up and was 0-for-8. Anthony Santander was 0-for-11. Hopefully the Guardians staff can hold them to 10 runs again this week, or even less. However, Rutschman has an OPS of .899 in August and it coming on strong. Cedric Mullens has a .380 OBP in August and a couple of their other regulars are over .786 in OPS.
At one point the O’s were 35-44. Since then they’ve gone 32-16 and are swinging the bats much better. That may be the best record in baseball over the last 48 games, or close to it. But the Guardians have their three best starters going and the O’s are below .500 on the road, so we will have those two things in our favor.
If we can get through the next six games and still be ahead of the Twins (or just even) we should be in very good shape since the Twins play 18 of their last 30 on the road and they are 27-33 away from home.
The Guardians are 32-25 at home while the Orioles are 30-36 on the road. The Guardians won the series in Baltimore 2-1 in June with a combined score of 13-10. Both teams had Monday off.
The Orioles are hot, with a record of 20-14 since the break. The Guardians are 21-15. The Birds have won 5 of their last 7.
The Orioles are 19th in scoring, 25th in on-base percentage, 21st in batting average and walks per game, and 14th in slugging percentage. They depend more on home runs than on small ball to score. In the first series the O’s scored 7 of their 10 runs on homers, including all 5 runs in their only win. They remind me a lot of Seattle in that way.
On the road they average 4.1 runs per game. The O’s are excellent at home (37-24) but 30-36 away so they have a very big home/away differential.
The Guardians will have their top three starters going; McKenzie, Bieber, and Quantrill. The Orioles will be starting three right-handers, which is good for us.
Quantrill starts tonight against 30-year-old minor league lifer Spenser Watkins, who is in his second season in the bigs. He has only 53 strikeouts in 84 innings so he’s obviously a pitch-to-contact guy. The most pitches he’s thrown in a game is 88.
Lefties are hitting .277/.812 against him. He was sent back to the minors for five weeks after compiling a 6.00 ERA in April and May. Since returning his ERA is 2.83 in 10 starts. He’s figured something out.
One interesting stat about Watkins is that on 3-2 counts batters are hitting just .043 against him (1-for-23 with 10 K’s). However, he has allowed 16 walks, which tells me he doesn’t throw strikes on 3-2. If you chase it you’re out, if you don’t it’s a walk. Considering he’s given up just one hit in 39 plate appearances with a 3-2 count it’s clear he’s depending on hitters to chase and would rather walk the batter than risk giving up a blast.
The key is to get ahead of Watkins. With counts of 1-0, 2-0, and 2-1 opponents are hitting .379, .444, and .435. But when the batter has two strikes on him they’re hitting .152. Obviously when Watkins gets two strikes he’s going out of the zone; the key is not to chase. Even on a 3-2 pitch he’s going out of the zone.
It seems to me that lately the Guardians’ hitters have been chasing bad pitches relentlessly, especially with two strikes. It’s like they’re terrified to get called out and swing at anything, even pitches at the armpits or in the dirt. Kwan is the only exception and maybe Hedges.
Watkins is a guy who doesn’t have great stuff or he would have made it to the majors before age 29. Looking at his numbers he’s clearly a breaking ball pitcher who teases batters into chasing bad pitches. I hope the Guardians understand what they’re up against and don’t play into his hands.
Quantrill has a 2.25 ERA in his last five starts and is 6-0 at home. He has never lost a game at the Prog and has been getting great run support this year. Hopefully that will continue. He has not faced the O’s this year and current Oriole players have just 13 career at-bats against him.
In the series in Baltimore the Orioles hit just .143 against Cleveland pitching. Their ROY candidate Adley Rutschman had just been called up and was 0-for-8. Anthony Santander was 0-for-11. Hopefully the Guardians staff can hold them to 10 runs again this week, or even less. However, Rutschman has an OPS of .899 in August and it coming on strong. Cedric Mullens has a .380 OBP in August and a couple of their other regulars are over .786 in OPS.
At one point the O’s were 35-44. Since then they’ve gone 32-16 and are swinging the bats much better. That may be the best record in baseball over the last 48 games, or close to it. But the Guardians have their three best starters going and the O’s are below .500 on the road, so we will have those two things in our favor.
