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2023-24 Season | Game #2 | Thunder @ Cavs | Oct. 27, 2023

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KevinLoveFan said:
Basically if the Cavs can shut down the outside shooting from OKC, they can win.
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And from one of the previews I found:

Giddey in particular - due to his lack of quick-twitch speed and athleticism - was constantly taken advantage of by quicker perimeter players…they allowed the 10th-highest frequency of wide-open 3-point attempts.

Against Brooklyn in the opener the Cavs shot 39% from deep on the road. At home against a team that was below average at preventing wide open 3's last year the Cavs could have a big night from deep. If they can shoot 40% on 3's again while holding OKC to 30% or under they have a great chance for a W.

However, the Thunder shot 48.3% on 3's in their opener against the Bulls (19-for-39). Eight players made either 2 or 3 shots from deep. 47.6% of their field goal attempts were 3-pointers. The Cavs need to be ready for a blizzard of 3's tonight. I'm expecting at leat 80 shots from beyond the arc tonight. The Cavs shot 43 and the Thunder 39 in their openers. Whichever team is hotter from deep probably wins.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
And from one of the previews I found:

Giddey in particular - due to his lack of quick-twitch speed and athleticism - was constantly taken advantage of by quicker perimeter players…they allowed the 10th-highest frequency of wide-open 3-point attempts.

Against Brooklyn in the opener the Cavs shot 39% from deep on the road. At home against a team that was below average at preventing wide open 3's last year the Cavs could have a big night from deep. If they can shoot 40% on 3's again while holding OKC to 30% or under they have a great chance for a W.

However, the Thunder shot 48.3% on 3's in their opener against the Bulls (19-for-39). Eight players made either 2 or 3 shots from deep. 47.6% of their field goal attempts were 3-pointers. The Cavs need to be ready for a blizzard of 3's tonight. I'm expecting at leat 80 shots from beyond the arc tonight. The Cavs shot 43 and the Thunder 39 in their openers. Whichever team is hotter from deep probably wins.
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That's a great point. The one area on D where OKC is consistently good is forcing TOs to create fastbreak offense that fits their fast-paced and driving style. I wouldn't be surprised if Daigneault looks to have them trap Garland early.
 
KevinLoveFan said:
That's a great point. The one area on D where OKC is consistently good is forcing TOs to create fastbreak offense that fits their fast-paced and driving style. I wouldn't be surprised if Daigneault looks to have them trap Garland early.
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The Athletic has a column on each team's strengths and weaknesses - one for each team. For the Thunder:

Best unit: Pressure (grade: B) Only the Raptors and Timberwolves joined the Thunder as teams that were in the top five in both steals and opponent turnover percentage last season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way with 112 steals.

Worst unit: Interior defense (grade: C) Only the Nets and Pacers were worse on the defensive glass than the Thunder were last season, so add that to Chet Holmgren’s list of responsibilities as he makes his debut.

They were playing without a center last year so I assume they will be a lot better on the defensive glass this year, unless Holmgren tries to block a lot of shots and takes himself out of rebounding position. The Bulls had 13 offensive rebounds against the Thunder on Wednesday so the Cavs should be able to get a lot of second chance points. More 3-point shooting creates more opportunities for long rebounds as well.

Edit: Holmgren only played 25 minutes against the Bulls and it was not due to foul trouble. I wonder why he didn't play more. The Thunder was a +14 in his 25 minutes.
 
If I were JBB I would rotate Okoro, LeVert, and Mitchell on SGA and deny him the ball. Make him work hard just to get the ball in his hands and they try to double him and make him give it up.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
The Athletic has a column on each team's strengths and weaknesses - one for each team. For the Thunder:

Best unit: Pressure (grade: B) Only the Raptors and Timberwolves joined the Thunder as teams that were in the top five in both steals and opponent turnover percentage last season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way with 112 steals.

Worst unit: Interior defense (grade: C) Only the Nets and Pacers were worse on the defensive glass than the Thunder were last season, so add that to Chet Holmgren’s list of responsibilities as he makes his debut.

They were playing without a center last year so I assume they will be a lot better on the defensive glass this year, unless Holmgren tries to block a lot of shots and takes himself out of rebounding position. The Bulls had 13 offensive rebounds against the Thunder on Wednesday so the Cavs should be able to get a lot of second chance points. More 3-point shooting creates more opportunities for long rebounds as well.

Edit: Holmgren only played 25 minutes against the Bulls and it was not due to foul trouble. I wonder why he didn't play more. The Thunder was a +14 in his 25 minutes.
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Holmgren is primarily a shot blocker on defense; like many young players, boxing out will need to be learned so he becomes a better rebounder. The Bulls also got a lot of long O-rebs in the opener, and Vucevic and Drummond used their physicality against skinny Chet a lot, which is probably why he didn't play much (that and it was his literal first NBA season game, so it makes sense they didn't want to over-do things the first night). His good plus/minus that game was mainly due to his efficiency on offense, IMO; he got double figures because he's a long range weapon on a team that starts four drivers, so he works great with that unit.
 
I think this is a tough matchup for both teams. The Thunder are long and athletic at every position, even their bench is long and athletic. But they only have 1 great 1 v 1 defender (Dort). Depending on who he guards, either DG or DM ought to have a good night. But we don’t really have a matchup for SGA either. I think both teams will get plenty of good shots. Like so many NBA games, it likely comes down to who is hitting 3’s and who gets to the free throw line
 
I doubt Garland plays both games, so pick and choose. LeVert needs to calm down.
 
Thanks to Wham and KLoveFan for the writeups. I feel pretty confident at home. 121-109, Cavs.

The Cavs will tighten up the defense. I'd put Mitchell on Shai and DG on Dort, since Mitchell's the better defender and Dort is the weaker offensive player.

If we get Allen back, this may be a blowout. I expect Mobley to have a big game after a mediocre game 1. 20-10 at least for him.
Michell - 27
DG - 21 He'll be shooting better.
Mobley -20, as I wished above
Allen/Jones 6, 10 rebonds, I hope.
Strus - 20
Okoro -18

That's 112. We just need 9 from our bench. We'll probably get it. LeVert will do better shooting and may get 15-20 and take some points from Okoro.

I'm proud that my 115-105 prediction was within one point of the Cavs score in game #1. Let's have the same result tonight.
 
1970s memories tonight as we lost Bingo. Also lost Richard Roundtree (John Shaft) this week.

Pumped for the Home Opener.
 
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