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After a brutal loss to the Thunder where they gave up a 10-point lead in the last 2.5 minutes the Cavs are right back at it against the running Indiana Pacers. My guess is still no Allen or Garland tonight and Donovan Mitchell is coming off a 42-minute game so this one doesn’t favor the short-handed Cavs.
The Pacers are 1-0 after blowing out Washington at home on Wednesday by a 143-120 score. Yep, they’ve had two days off. This looks like a schedule loss, even though it’s at home.
Eight Pacers scored in double figures against the Wizards and they shot 46.5% on 3’s, taking 43 of them. They also had 32 fast break points so expect a lot of fast breaking and 3-point launching.
The Pacers beat the Cavs 109-104 in the last preseason game with Buddy Hield hitting 6 of 8 three point shots and scoring 20 off the bench. Obi Toppin had 17 points including a couple of leak outs. The Cavs really need to either harass the Pacer who gets a rebound and delay the outlet pass or fall back quickly to prevent easy transition buckets. No Garland or Allen in that game, either.
Here are some excerpts from various season previews:
John Hollinger:
The Pacers’ handling of the Buddy Hield situation gives you a little bit of a window into the mindset of where they are right now: Not tanking, certainly, because they tried to extend him, but not so locked in on this year that they aren’t willing to take a half-step back if it helps the future...
That’s the right approach if you look at the birth certificates on the roster. Haliburton is 23, Myles Turner is 27 and Bennedict Mathurin is 21. Their big free-agent get (Bruce Brown) is 27 …Several other key or hoped-to-be key players are in their early-to-mid 20s as well…the Pacers glaring lack of size on the perimeter is something that needs addressing. If Mathurin, Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard (an impressive defender as a rookie whose offense needs to catch up) are the backcourt rotation of the future, there’s no room left at the inn for Hield unless he plays out of position.
The Pacers also took some steps to address an even more glaring weakness from a year ago at the power forward spot, trading for Obi Toppin and drafting Jarace Walker with the eighth pick…Toppin, in particular, is interesting because he’s so blazing fast in transition; together with Haliburton and Mathurin, Indy could juice the pace even higher than last year’s fourth-ranked outfit.
Overall, I rate these Pacers similar to a year ago: good enough to stay in the playoff race for much of the season, but ultimately lacking the second star and quality forwards who would enable them to win more games than they lose. In the soft underbelly of the East, they have a good chance of squeezing out a Play-In appearance.
Fred Katz, Knicks writer:
Can we discuss the Pacers being over .500 last season before Tyrese Haliburton’s injury woes? How about them being loaded with passers and cutters after adding Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin? Can we mention Myles Turner coming off a career year and being perfect for this roster? We can’t do any of that because I was told to keep this blurb short. But the Pacers are 45-wins good. They’re ready to show it.
VSIN:
If Indiana is going to achieve the lofty goals set for it by the betting market, then it will do with an offense that gave opponents problems last season. The Pacers only averaged 114.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time overall, but where they thrived was in transition.
Indiana led the NBA in points added per 100 plays in transition (4.2), overall offensive efficiency in transition off live rebounds (131.8) and fastbreak points per game (18.1). This figures to be an elite transition offense once again this season, and much of that will be driven by Tyrese Haliburton…
He helped improve their overall offensive efficiency in transition by 4.9 points every 100 plays as well, and he was an incredible offensive spark for Indiana. Haliburton averaged 20.7 points and 10.4 assists per game last season, shooting 49.0% from the floor and 40.0% from the 3-point range. His efficiency differential (+6.1) ranked in the 84th percentile. He is among the best offensive players in the league, and complimentary pieces surround him.
Bennedict Mathurin had a strong rookie season in which he averaged 16.7 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, and the expectation is that he will take a positive step forward in his development. Myles Turner was brilliant last season. He ranked in the 83rd percentile in efficiency differential and improved the Pacers’ defensive efficiency by 2.7 points every 100 possessions on the floor. Turner also had his best 3-point shooting season (37.3%) since 2018-2019.
The team also did well to add to this group in the offseason.
Bruce Brown joins the team after helping Denver win the NBA Finals last season. He is the perfect Swiss Army knife that can play off the ball when sharing the floor with the likes of Haliburton or Andrew Nembhard, while also being able to bring the ball up himself. Obi Toppin is a perfect fit for a team that runs the floor as often as Indiana does as well.
Despite those good vibes though, there are issues with this team that could arise and foil a potential playoff berth.
The transition offense might be effective, but this team still finished 21st in overall offensive efficiency because of an abysmal halfcourt offense that managed just 96.5 points per 100 plays. Indiana also lacked a true presence on the offensive glass last season, which did not allow them to mask the halfcourt issues with second-chance points. Rookie Jerace Walker could help in that regard, but it is unlikely he helps them enough on the offensive boards to vault this halfcourt offense up the standings.
There is also the question of defense.
Indiana was the fifth-worst defense in non-garbage time last season. It allowed 118.7 points per 100 possessions overall and ranked 21st in transition defensive efficiency (129.2) and 24th in halfcourt defensive efficiency (100.2). The additions made to this team in the offseason will not fix those issues, so it's safe to expect this team to finish below average on that end of the floor again.
Win Total Analysis
Indiana won 35 games last season…The Pacers were lucky to grind out 25 wins in 48 clutch games last season despite posting a negative net rating in clutch time (-3.7). There is also no logical reason to assume improved defensive play from a team that brings back a majority of the roster from last season.
My comments:
1. The Wizards scored 120 points on the road against Indy, so it appears Indy's defense is not great again this year (5th worst last year). They do have Myles Turner in the paint, so the Cavs might be better off shooting 3’s against those small perimeter defenders. Shoot the 3 and fall back to prevent the fast break. The Pacers averaged 18 ppg in transition last year and scored 32 in their opening game. They're running even more than last year.
2. If the Pacers don’t have "room at the inn" for Buddy Hield I would give them Niang and Jerome gladly.
3. I would have Okoro and LeVert alternating on Haliburton. The guy that scares me is Mathurin. Against Washington five players took 5-7 shots from deep, so they have a lot of perimeter shooters. The Cavs should emphasize preventing transition layups and forcing them off the 3-point line. Let them attack the rim - that's the lesser of evils as I see it. The Pacers kill you on fast breaks and on 3-point shooting.
4. I'll be switching back-and-forth between the Cavs and Buckeyes tonight.
The Pacers are 1-0 after blowing out Washington at home on Wednesday by a 143-120 score. Yep, they’ve had two days off. This looks like a schedule loss, even though it’s at home.
Eight Pacers scored in double figures against the Wizards and they shot 46.5% on 3’s, taking 43 of them. They also had 32 fast break points so expect a lot of fast breaking and 3-point launching.
The Pacers beat the Cavs 109-104 in the last preseason game with Buddy Hield hitting 6 of 8 three point shots and scoring 20 off the bench. Obi Toppin had 17 points including a couple of leak outs. The Cavs really need to either harass the Pacer who gets a rebound and delay the outlet pass or fall back quickly to prevent easy transition buckets. No Garland or Allen in that game, either.
Here are some excerpts from various season previews:
John Hollinger:
The Pacers’ handling of the Buddy Hield situation gives you a little bit of a window into the mindset of where they are right now: Not tanking, certainly, because they tried to extend him, but not so locked in on this year that they aren’t willing to take a half-step back if it helps the future...
That’s the right approach if you look at the birth certificates on the roster. Haliburton is 23, Myles Turner is 27 and Bennedict Mathurin is 21. Their big free-agent get (Bruce Brown) is 27 …Several other key or hoped-to-be key players are in their early-to-mid 20s as well…the Pacers glaring lack of size on the perimeter is something that needs addressing. If Mathurin, Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard (an impressive defender as a rookie whose offense needs to catch up) are the backcourt rotation of the future, there’s no room left at the inn for Hield unless he plays out of position.
The Pacers also took some steps to address an even more glaring weakness from a year ago at the power forward spot, trading for Obi Toppin and drafting Jarace Walker with the eighth pick…Toppin, in particular, is interesting because he’s so blazing fast in transition; together with Haliburton and Mathurin, Indy could juice the pace even higher than last year’s fourth-ranked outfit.
Overall, I rate these Pacers similar to a year ago: good enough to stay in the playoff race for much of the season, but ultimately lacking the second star and quality forwards who would enable them to win more games than they lose. In the soft underbelly of the East, they have a good chance of squeezing out a Play-In appearance.
Fred Katz, Knicks writer:
Can we discuss the Pacers being over .500 last season before Tyrese Haliburton’s injury woes? How about them being loaded with passers and cutters after adding Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin? Can we mention Myles Turner coming off a career year and being perfect for this roster? We can’t do any of that because I was told to keep this blurb short. But the Pacers are 45-wins good. They’re ready to show it.
VSIN:
If Indiana is going to achieve the lofty goals set for it by the betting market, then it will do with an offense that gave opponents problems last season. The Pacers only averaged 114.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time overall, but where they thrived was in transition.
Indiana led the NBA in points added per 100 plays in transition (4.2), overall offensive efficiency in transition off live rebounds (131.8) and fastbreak points per game (18.1). This figures to be an elite transition offense once again this season, and much of that will be driven by Tyrese Haliburton…
He helped improve their overall offensive efficiency in transition by 4.9 points every 100 plays as well, and he was an incredible offensive spark for Indiana. Haliburton averaged 20.7 points and 10.4 assists per game last season, shooting 49.0% from the floor and 40.0% from the 3-point range. His efficiency differential (+6.1) ranked in the 84th percentile. He is among the best offensive players in the league, and complimentary pieces surround him.
Bennedict Mathurin had a strong rookie season in which he averaged 16.7 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, and the expectation is that he will take a positive step forward in his development. Myles Turner was brilliant last season. He ranked in the 83rd percentile in efficiency differential and improved the Pacers’ defensive efficiency by 2.7 points every 100 possessions on the floor. Turner also had his best 3-point shooting season (37.3%) since 2018-2019.
The team also did well to add to this group in the offseason.
Bruce Brown joins the team after helping Denver win the NBA Finals last season. He is the perfect Swiss Army knife that can play off the ball when sharing the floor with the likes of Haliburton or Andrew Nembhard, while also being able to bring the ball up himself. Obi Toppin is a perfect fit for a team that runs the floor as often as Indiana does as well.
Despite those good vibes though, there are issues with this team that could arise and foil a potential playoff berth.
The transition offense might be effective, but this team still finished 21st in overall offensive efficiency because of an abysmal halfcourt offense that managed just 96.5 points per 100 plays. Indiana also lacked a true presence on the offensive glass last season, which did not allow them to mask the halfcourt issues with second-chance points. Rookie Jerace Walker could help in that regard, but it is unlikely he helps them enough on the offensive boards to vault this halfcourt offense up the standings.
There is also the question of defense.
Indiana was the fifth-worst defense in non-garbage time last season. It allowed 118.7 points per 100 possessions overall and ranked 21st in transition defensive efficiency (129.2) and 24th in halfcourt defensive efficiency (100.2). The additions made to this team in the offseason will not fix those issues, so it's safe to expect this team to finish below average on that end of the floor again.
Win Total Analysis
Indiana won 35 games last season…The Pacers were lucky to grind out 25 wins in 48 clutch games last season despite posting a negative net rating in clutch time (-3.7). There is also no logical reason to assume improved defensive play from a team that brings back a majority of the roster from last season.
My comments:
1. The Wizards scored 120 points on the road against Indy, so it appears Indy's defense is not great again this year (5th worst last year). They do have Myles Turner in the paint, so the Cavs might be better off shooting 3’s against those small perimeter defenders. Shoot the 3 and fall back to prevent the fast break. The Pacers averaged 18 ppg in transition last year and scored 32 in their opening game. They're running even more than last year.
2. If the Pacers don’t have "room at the inn" for Buddy Hield I would give them Niang and Jerome gladly.
3. I would have Okoro and LeVert alternating on Haliburton. The guy that scares me is Mathurin. Against Washington five players took 5-7 shots from deep, so they have a lot of perimeter shooters. The Cavs should emphasize preventing transition layups and forcing them off the 3-point line. Let them attack the rim - that's the lesser of evils as I see it. The Pacers kill you on fast breaks and on 3-point shooting.
4. I'll be switching back-and-forth between the Cavs and Buckeyes tonight.
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