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2023-24 Season | Game #61 | Celtics @ Cavs | March 5, 2024 | 7:30 p.m. | TNT

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Wham with the Right Hand

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After laying a massive egg against a depleted Knicks squad missing four starters the Cavs get a day off before another home game against the not-so-depleted Boston Celtics, owner of the best winning percentage in the league by 100 points. The Celtics are 48-12 overall and 19-9 on the road. They have won 11 straight and their average margin of victory in those games was 22 points. They had two 50-point wins in that span.

Sunday they beat Golden State by 52. The W’s had won 10 of their last 12 before getting absolutely smoked by the Celtics in the Garden. It was 82-38 at halftime. In the end it was the third biggest blowout in Celtics’ history as they caught the weary Warriors on their fourth road game in six nights.

The Celtics have been the NBA’s healthiest team this year; four of their starters have started 55 or more of their 60 games with Porzingis having started “only” 44. Must be nice.

Their main reserves Pritchard and Hauser have played 60 and 59 games and even ancient Al Horford has played in 50. The basketball gods have been very kind to the Celtics this year. However, Porzingis and Jaylen Brown are both listed as questionable against the Cavs.

That will not be a problem even if both are out since the Cavs have their own issues. Mitchell and Strus have been ruled out and LeVert and Okoro are questionable. So we could be missing all three of our small forwards. Emoni Bates might get some run tonight.

These teams played twice in Boston on Dec. 12 and Dec. 14 with the Celtics winning by 7 and 9 points. The Cavs were pretty competitive on the road in those games. Mitchell averaged 30 points and 7 rebounds. In fact, the top scorers for the Cavs were Mitchell at 30 ppg, Garland at 22.5, and LeVert at 18.5 - all guards. The front line hardly scored; Allen averaged 11, Wade 6.5, Okoro 5.0, and Niang 3.5. Mobley missed both games. So the Cavs’ guards scored by far the most points.

Darius Garland broke his jaw trying to get by Porzingis in the second game, putting him out for six weeks.

The Cavs shot well against the Celtics, hitting 55.7% on 2’s and 38.5% on 3’s. But with Mitchell and Strus out and possibly LeVert and Okoro as well the buckets will be much harder to get.

The Celtics averaged 118 points to 110 for the Cavs. They out-rebounded the Cavs 44.5 to 37.0 but with Mobley back maybe the Cavs can improve on those numbers. The Celtics lead the NBA in first quarter scoring margin at +4.6 (the Cavs are 6th), so the Cavs need to be ready to go from the jump.

If Brown and Porzingis are out the Celtics will be missing 43 points and 12.5 rebounds, but they still have Jayson Tatum (27 ppg), Derrick White (15.5), and Jrue Holiday (12.9). At age 33 Holiday still averages 33 minutes per game and shoots 48% from the field and 43% on 3's. Horford, Hauser, and Pritchard each average 8 ppg off the bench and shoot between 38-42% on 3’s.

Reserve center Neemias Queta is out so if Porzingis can’t play the Celtics are down to one center - veteran journeyman Luke Kornet, who averages 5 points and 4 rebounds in 15 minutes per game. According to their ESPN depth chart their backup center would be Xavier Tillman, a 6’7”, 245-pound forward in his fifth season with a career scoring average of 5.9 ppg.

If Porzingis and Brown can’t play but LeVert and Okoro can go this could be a competitive game. The Celtics would have to start Kornet at center, Tatum at power forward, and a three-guard unit of Holiday, White, and Pritchard or Hauser. They could start Al Horford but at age 37 they probably prefer him to come off the bench.

I’m looking forward to watching the Tatum/Mobley matchup and Holiday or White against Garland. Last April Holiday was named the NBA’s best defensive player in an anonymous poll of NBA players, so I expect he will be on Garland since Darius is our best remaining scoring threat with Mitchell out.

If both Okoro and LeVert are out in addition to Strus we could see the three-big lineup of Allen, Mobley, and Wade across the front line for part of the game. That way we could keep one of them on Tatum every possession and make it as difficult as possible for him to take over the game, which he might try to do if both Brown and Porzingis are out.

The Celtics shoot a 3-pointer on 47% of their attempts - highest in the NBA. They rank 4th in 3-point accuracy. Against Golden State two nights ago they were 25-for-49 and the game before that they were 21-for-43. The Cavs need to get back after a missed shot and pick up everybody so nobody gets an uncontested 3. They love to shoot 3’s in transition.

What the Cavs can’t do is have three of their players trying to stop the transition layup while Celtic sharpshooters set up in the corner and on the wings. Every Celtic must be accounted for in transition or they will shoot you right out of the building by halftime. They push the ball up the floor, suck in the defense, and then kick it back to a trailer for a wide open 3.

This one could get out of hand early and we could see a lot of minutes from Merrill, Porter, Niang, Wade, Jones, and even Bates. Or, if the Cavs were stung by their loss to the Knicks and don’t want another humiliation at home two days later, they might put up a good fight against an overconfident opponent. I have no idea what to expect. But NBA teams tend to bounce back after an embarassing loss, so I won't be surprised if the Cavs come out with some fire, knowing that teams that aren't ready to compete against the Celtics get badly mauled.
 
I had tickets and sold them. Couldn't stand another embarrassment, let alone live. Bring out the summer league team for some run tonight. No need to risk any injuries to whatever starters we have left. Get some rest instead.
 
This could be fun to watch if 1) Brown and Porzingis are out, 2) LeVert and Okoro can play, and 3) Luke Kornet gets in early foul trouble and they have no centers, forcing Horford to move to center.

But if Brown and Porzingis play while LeVert and Okoro are out - fuhgettaboutit. Put in Merrill, Porter, and Bates and let's do summer league nostalgia.
 
Gonna end up watching the game because I watch every one i can
Oooooh I’m gonna stay tuned…Hopefully you’ll give us your thoughts on Niang in this one like the Knicks game thread…
 
Oooooh I’m gonna stay tuned…Hopefully you’ll give us your thoughts on Niang in this one like the Knicks game thread…
I wouldnt expect them to change much but if you are that excited about it i will do it. Just for you
 
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Yes, I expect a bounceback game but not a victory. If LeVert and Okoro play and Brown and Portzingas don't, I give us a 45% chance of victory. Say 111-107 Cavs.
If LeVert and Okoro don't play, we're down to 40%. If Portzingas and Brown play, we're down to 30%
 

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