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The Cavaliers, with a 6-8 record since their 9-game winning streak was stopped by Philadelphia on Feb. 23, hit the Big Easy to take on the red-hot New Orleans Pelicans, winners of 13 of their last 17. The Pelicans are 39-25 overall and 18-12 at home.
These teams played in Cleveland on Dec. 21 with the Pels emerging with an easy 123-104 win. The Cavs were without Garland, Mitchell, and Mobley while the Pels did not have Zion Williamson.
This time around Zion is playing and combined with the hulking Jonas Valanciunas the Cavs are likely to get pushed around in the paint. The Pelicans have had two days off and are at home, healthy, and well-rested.
In the last two weeks they are 5-1 and lead the NBA with a point differential of +19.2. Boston is right behind at +18.6 and Denver is way back in third place at +9.5. The Pelicans and Celtics are on fire right now and nobody else is close.
Mobley, Strus, and Wade are still out for the Cavs while Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable. This should be Tristan Thompson’s last game on the suspended list. We probably could have used him tonight against Zion.
The Pelicans rank 13th in scoring and 8th in scoring defense. On offense they prefer to attack the rim, ranking 10th in points in the paint and 24th in 3-point rate. However, they are 5th in 3-point accuracy so it appears they attack the rim first and kick it out for open 3’s if they can’t get the layup or foul.
The Pelicans lead the NBA in corner 3 percentage at 43.4%. The Cavaliers need to make sure they don’t allow uncontested corner 3’s, even if it means guarding Zion and Vala with one defender in the paint.
The Pels rank 8th in offensive rebound percentage so the Cavs need everybody helping on the defensive glass. They rank 4th in second chance points per missed shot. Damian Jones is probably going to get some playing time.
The Pels don’t play especially fast, ranking 22nd in field goal attempts per game, but the fact that they are 13th in scoring attests to their shooting efficiency and ability to get second chance points. They also draw a lot of fouls, ranking 7th in free throw attempts per game.
Defensively they have an odd profile. Opponents shoot 3’s on 44% of their shots, second most, but make only 34.4%, worst in the NBA. In other words, the Pelicans force a higher percentage of missed 3’s than any team, but opponents keep shooting an extremely high volume anyway. I don’t know why teams shoot so many 3’s when the Pelicans defend 3’s better than anyone.
I suspect it could be that shooters just don’t want to attack the rim with Vala and Zion hanging around, ready to pulverize any layup attempts. Launching a 3-pointer seems like a fine idea under those circumstances, much better than a mid-air collision with one of those mashers. We could see Garland and LeVert getting into the paint and making a U-turn. Discretion might be the better part of valor.
The Pels rank 19th in opponents’ 2-point percentage, so maybe the Cavs should try some mid-range shots. Overall the Pels are 7th in opponents’ effective field goal percentage and 8th in opponents’ turnovers per play, so they do a great job of forcing turnovers and missed shots. They’re 3rd in steals per possession - all that length makes them good at getting hands into the passing lanes.
Zion has a line of 22/6/5 on 58% from the field. He is a load at 6’6”, 284 pounds. Brandon Ingram, a 6’8” small forward, has a similar line of 21/5/6. Veteran shooting guard CJ McCollum averages 18 points and 4 assists on 46% and 42%. Valanciunas averages 13 points and 9.5 boards while SF Herbert Jones averages 11 points on 44% from deep. Trey Murphy, a 6’8” shooting guard, averages 14 points off the bench.
The Pelicans don’t have a true point guard on their roster except Jose Alvarado, a second year player who averages 2.0 assists in his 17 minutes per game. They appear to be close to achieving positionless basketball. Of their top 11 players in minutes per game, nine of them are 6’5” to 6’8”. The only exceptions are Vala at 6’11” and McCollum at 6’3”.
If the Cavs were healthy this would be a game between a team of wings and a team of point guards and centers.
The Pelicans are a very good team and right now are playing better than any team in the NBA except possibly the Celtics. After losing three straight to OKC, Milwaukee, and Boston the last week in January the Pelicans have gone 13-4. They have won their last four games by 27, 41, 8 (at Philadelphia), and 13 points.
I don’t see any way the Cavs beat this team in New Orleans, especially since they have all their top players healthy and are playing better than anyone. After this game the Cavs have two days off before playing at Houston, which just lost Alperen Sengun, their leading scorer and rebounder.
I would sit Mitchell and give his knee three more days to recover. Hopefully by Saturday we’ll have Mitchell, Strus and Wade back and we can get after Houston, Indiana, and Miami, three much more beatable teams than the Pelicans.
These teams played in Cleveland on Dec. 21 with the Pels emerging with an easy 123-104 win. The Cavs were without Garland, Mitchell, and Mobley while the Pels did not have Zion Williamson.
This time around Zion is playing and combined with the hulking Jonas Valanciunas the Cavs are likely to get pushed around in the paint. The Pelicans have had two days off and are at home, healthy, and well-rested.
In the last two weeks they are 5-1 and lead the NBA with a point differential of +19.2. Boston is right behind at +18.6 and Denver is way back in third place at +9.5. The Pelicans and Celtics are on fire right now and nobody else is close.
Mobley, Strus, and Wade are still out for the Cavs while Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable. This should be Tristan Thompson’s last game on the suspended list. We probably could have used him tonight against Zion.
The Pelicans rank 13th in scoring and 8th in scoring defense. On offense they prefer to attack the rim, ranking 10th in points in the paint and 24th in 3-point rate. However, they are 5th in 3-point accuracy so it appears they attack the rim first and kick it out for open 3’s if they can’t get the layup or foul.
The Pelicans lead the NBA in corner 3 percentage at 43.4%. The Cavaliers need to make sure they don’t allow uncontested corner 3’s, even if it means guarding Zion and Vala with one defender in the paint.
The Pels rank 8th in offensive rebound percentage so the Cavs need everybody helping on the defensive glass. They rank 4th in second chance points per missed shot. Damian Jones is probably going to get some playing time.
The Pels don’t play especially fast, ranking 22nd in field goal attempts per game, but the fact that they are 13th in scoring attests to their shooting efficiency and ability to get second chance points. They also draw a lot of fouls, ranking 7th in free throw attempts per game.
Defensively they have an odd profile. Opponents shoot 3’s on 44% of their shots, second most, but make only 34.4%, worst in the NBA. In other words, the Pelicans force a higher percentage of missed 3’s than any team, but opponents keep shooting an extremely high volume anyway. I don’t know why teams shoot so many 3’s when the Pelicans defend 3’s better than anyone.
I suspect it could be that shooters just don’t want to attack the rim with Vala and Zion hanging around, ready to pulverize any layup attempts. Launching a 3-pointer seems like a fine idea under those circumstances, much better than a mid-air collision with one of those mashers. We could see Garland and LeVert getting into the paint and making a U-turn. Discretion might be the better part of valor.
The Pels rank 19th in opponents’ 2-point percentage, so maybe the Cavs should try some mid-range shots. Overall the Pels are 7th in opponents’ effective field goal percentage and 8th in opponents’ turnovers per play, so they do a great job of forcing turnovers and missed shots. They’re 3rd in steals per possession - all that length makes them good at getting hands into the passing lanes.
Zion has a line of 22/6/5 on 58% from the field. He is a load at 6’6”, 284 pounds. Brandon Ingram, a 6’8” small forward, has a similar line of 21/5/6. Veteran shooting guard CJ McCollum averages 18 points and 4 assists on 46% and 42%. Valanciunas averages 13 points and 9.5 boards while SF Herbert Jones averages 11 points on 44% from deep. Trey Murphy, a 6’8” shooting guard, averages 14 points off the bench.
The Pelicans don’t have a true point guard on their roster except Jose Alvarado, a second year player who averages 2.0 assists in his 17 minutes per game. They appear to be close to achieving positionless basketball. Of their top 11 players in minutes per game, nine of them are 6’5” to 6’8”. The only exceptions are Vala at 6’11” and McCollum at 6’3”.
If the Cavs were healthy this would be a game between a team of wings and a team of point guards and centers.
The Pelicans are a very good team and right now are playing better than any team in the NBA except possibly the Celtics. After losing three straight to OKC, Milwaukee, and Boston the last week in January the Pelicans have gone 13-4. They have won their last four games by 27, 41, 8 (at Philadelphia), and 13 points.
I don’t see any way the Cavs beat this team in New Orleans, especially since they have all their top players healthy and are playing better than anyone. After this game the Cavs have two days off before playing at Houston, which just lost Alperen Sengun, their leading scorer and rebounder.
I would sit Mitchell and give his knee three more days to recover. Hopefully by Saturday we’ll have Mitchell, Strus and Wade back and we can get after Houston, Indiana, and Miami, three much more beatable teams than the Pelicans.
