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2023-24 Season | Playoff series #1 | Cavaliers vs. Magic |

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Wham with the Right Hand said:
It looks to me like the Cavs are, in fact, too small. Suggs is bigger than Mitchell, Harris is bigger than Garland, Franz Wagner is way bigger than Okoro and Strus and can shoot over them at will.

Banchero is not taller than Mobley but he's a lot stronger and last night he slammed into Mobley enough to create space to shoot his fallaway.

Guys coming off the bench like Mo Wagner are bigger than Niang. LeVert is too skinny to defend guys like Suggs.

Being either shorter or skinnier than the Magic at every position except center was not a problem as long as the Magic were shooting 32% and missing 75% of their wide open shots. But once they settled down and started making those shots the Cavs had no response.

In order to beat a taller, stronger, and more physical team it takes skill - better ball handling, passing, and shooting.

My concern is that neither Garland or Mitchell are 100%. Strus is a complementary player; he doesn't create shots on his own. Same for Allen, Mobley, Niang, Okoro, and Merrill. It all depends on Garland, Mitchell, and LeVert to beat their man off the dribble and either knock down the shot or pass to an open teammate after another defender picks them up.

If Garland and Mitchell are playing with a back injury and a sore knee and can't hit their shots (they went 8-for-26 last night) and LeVert can only make layups then the offense is in a lot of trouble. They still haven't scored 100 points.

Niang and Strus were brought in after the Knicks' debacle to provide 3-point shooting. They're 6-for-30!

The problem is not lack of effort or toughness. These guys can't shoot straight.
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If DM & DG can’t be highly effective on offense we are screwed. They are always going to be sub-par defensively. If they can’t make up for it on the offensive end, especially since our whole offense depends on them, it will take Orlando being bad to win another game.
 
Okay, after a bad loss, how do our series chances look?

For game 4, I predicted:
Game 4: If 2-1, chance of victory 50% Cavs 113-106
From there, for game 5:
Game 5, If 3-1, chance of victory 56%, Cavs 120-111
56%​
44%​
If 2-2, chance of victory 52%, Cavs 113-107
52%​
48%​

Chance of winning in 5,
28.00%​

Chance of going to 6 or more: 72%
Game 6:
Game 6, If 3-2 chance of victory 49%, Cavs 119-116
49%​
If 2-3 chance of victory 43%, Cavs 112-109
43%​

Chance of winning in 6:
10.78%​

Game 7:
Game 7, 53% chance of victory 119-114
Cav's victory in 7
44.84%​
Magic victory in 7
5.38%​
 
The Cavs went 6:46 without scoring a single point from 5:26 in the 3rd quarter to 10:40 in the 4th. They went from being down 4 points to down 18 and the game was effectively over.

This is not unusual; there have been many games this year where the Cavs suddenly start missing every shot. It's contagious - once they miss three in a row it's like everybody tightens up and nothing will go down. We don't have anybody who can break the opponent's momentum, and that includes Mitchell.

During the 14-0 run by the Magic Mitchell missed two shots and committed two turnovers. Mobley missed two shots, Niang had a miss and a turnover, and Garland had a turnover.

This team goes into the vortex and can't pull itself out until it's too late. The Cavaliers can lose a game in five minutes, and they sometimes do. It's like watching a pitcher throw five shutout innings and with two out in the sixth suddenly walk four straight hitters. He's in total command but as soon as he walks one guy he falls apart.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
The Cavs went 6:46 without scoring a single point from 5:26 in the 3rd quarter to 10:40 in the 4th. They went from being down 4 points to down 18 and the game was effectively over.

This is not unusual; there have been many games this year where the Cavs suddenly start missing every shot. It's contagious - once they miss three in a row it's like everybody tightens up and nothing will go down. We don't have anybody who can break the opponent's momentum, and that includes Mitchell.

During the 14-0 run by the Magic Mitchell missed two shots and committed two turnovers. Mobley missed two shots, Niang had a miss and a turnover, and Garland had a turnover.

This team goes into the vortex and can't pull itself out until it's too late. The Cavaliers can lose a game in five minutes, and they sometimes do. It's like watching a pitcher throw five shutout innings and with two out in the sixth suddenly walk four straight hitters. He's in total command but as soon as he walks one guy he falls apart.
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While I think mental toughness has something to do with this. I also think a lot of it has to do with the types of scorers the Cavs are. I think every one of the guys we rely on are scorers that go off when they are feeling it. What we don't have is someone that can flip a switch and just grind it out to score. Mitchell at 100% and in the regular season might be able to do it but we haven't seen him do it as a Cavs in the playoffs.

Like Lebron, Love, and Kyrie had plays or moves that they would go to when they had to dig deep to get a bucket. Even Sexton kind of did. Garland clearly doesn't. Mobley just doesn't have self created offensive moves in general. If Mitchell can't blow by someone he doesn't seem to have those moves either. Truly you need at least two guys that can dig deep and get buckets just in case one is off or injured.
 
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Pierre Pan said:
Still a chance for 5:30 though….at least 3 , maybe 4 games if the Suns extend their series
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Thank you and Oh boy I didn’t even think about that… if that’s the case I most likely won’t be able to catch much of the game. Might be a good thing…
 
Well, now it comes down to hoping the Magic's ability to make jump shots deserts them in Cleveland in games 5 and 7 like it did in games 1 and 2. I don't see any other way the Cavs can win. The Magic are bigger, younger, more physical, more intense, hungrier, and a lot deeper.

They have bigs who can play physical at the rim but also hit 3's. They have two 6'10" guys who can drive to the rim, hit contested mid-range shots, and make open 3's. Our bigs have about a 10-foot shooting range, if that.

The first two games the Magic were nervous in their first playoff appearance and were bricking open shots. I knew that wouldn't last. We just have to hope their cold shooting on the road continues for two more games because if they're shooting fairly well they are the more talented team.

The Cavs are kind of a throwback team with small guards and bigs with no outside or even mid-range shooting ability. We also have small forwards with no ability to create their own shots. The Magic are the future, the Cavs are the past.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
Well, now it comes down to hoping the Magic's ability to make jump shots deserts them in Cleveland in games 5 and 7 like it did in games 1 and 2. I don't see any other way the Cavs can win. The Magic are bigger, younger, more physical, more intense, hungrier, and a lot deeper.

They have bigs who can play physical at the rim but also hit 3's. They have two 6'10" guys who can drive to the rim, hit contested mid-range shots, and make open 3's. Our bigs have about a 10-foot shooting range, if that.

The first two games the Magic were nervous in their first playoff appearance and were bricking open shots. I knew that wouldn't last. We just have to hope their cold shooting on the road continues for two more games because if they're shooting fairly well they are the more talented team.

The Cavs are kind of a throwback team with small guards and bigs with no outside or even mid-range shooting ability. We also have small forwards with no ability to create their own shots. The Magic are the future, the Cavs are the past.
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Maybe, but the Magic have been lousy on the road ditto the Cavs. This take reeks of ignorance of JB's lack of adjustment and the mental toll it takes.

Neither those 6'10 guys drive that well and yup, Mobley has game.....underutilized game beyond 10 feet. It's JB's fault for not seeing the quick Frobley slashes were all they were selling out on by the 3rd quarter.
 
Futuredome said:
Maybe, but the Magic have been lousy on the road ditto the Cavs. This take reeks of ignorance of JB's lack of adjustment and the mental toll it takes.

Neither those 6'10 guys drive that well and yup, Mobley has game.....underutilized game beyond 10 feet. It's JB's fault for not seeing the quick Frobley slashes were all they were selling out on by the 3rd quarter.
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Sorry, I disagree. Mobley has no offensive game beyond 10 feet from the rim, and his post-up moves inside 10 feet are slow and predictable. He tried a fallaway in front of the rim yesterday that Isaac blocked before it ever got out of his hand.

Mobley's shooting touch is awful and he doesn't have a jump hook beyond three feet. He's good at pump fakes when he gets the ball at the rim and he's great at dunking lobs when his defender has to switch off and challenge the shot.
 
This team definately does not remember what made them good during their good stretch. Really really odd.
 
catfish said:
This team definately does not remember what made them good during their good stretch. Really really odd.
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Disagree. The stretch of regular season basketball is meaningless in the long run. It's a adjustment based game. Mitchell came out in the second half trying to run the same scheme we ran in the first. The Magic were ready for it. JB let him ram his head into the wall. He had a bunch of TO's. Was taken out and nothing changed. The quick strike Frobley stuff waa not going to work. We needed to work the perimeter and try to hit wide open 3 pointers and JB put guys in like Merrill or Morris. Put Mitchell more off ball. This is what I tried to explain to posters on this board about needing a coach who can see Match up basketball and lead the players accordingly. It's why all multi championship teams have Phil Jackson.
 
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