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2023 Browns Off-Season Thread II: Free Agent Marathon: Settling in for the Long Haul: Slow and Steady: Patience is a Virtue: Loose Lips Sink Ships!

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Vee-Rex said:
Looks like a drop by DPJ or tipped. Interesting that Daryl Ruiter didn't post any of the TDs from the day but had this to say:

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That's because Daryl Ruiter is a troll who gets paid by 92.3.
 
Watched the Marquise Goodwin presser. Hard not to root for that guy. He went from being a JAG (in my mind) to wanting him to make the team (by earning it, not just cause hes likable).
 
CBBI said:
I mean at one time Hopkins was on another planet compared to DPJ. That’s not in question.

But can we say with certainty that Hopkins will return to being that player again at 31 years old and after two seasons riddled with injuries and suspension?

Most guys his age do not typically have a career renaissance. That doesn’t mean he can’t, but the odds appear to not be in his favor.

It’s not something that I personally think will happen.

And I don’t think it’s some sort of insanely hot take to suggest the clearly ascending and much younger player may be better moving forward than the clearly descending much older player who has struggled for two years now.
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Ahh, I thought you were being disingenuous but I can see how you've come to this conclusion.

I strongly disagree with the bolded, however. I don't know if DPJ is "clearly ascending" at all. Hell, that's what the team is undecided on.

Stats like aDOT do nothing for me and are heavily scheme-based. DPJ had a better aDOT than Jamarr Chase, better yards per catch than Jamarr Chase, better yards per target than Jamarr Chase, and very comparable passer rating when targeted with Jamarr Chase. Scheme plays a role with a lot of these stats. DPJ got more volume but is he clearly ascending?

Next Gen stats ranked DPJ 98 out of 114 receivers (minimum of 48 targets) in his ability to get open. Nuk ranked 39th. The clear "ascent" you've seen is mostly DPJ just getting more volume compared to his first two seasons and being in an aggressive scheme. The dude struggles to get open and has struggled his entire time here to get open, including last year where he was abysmal at getting open.

Having watched Nuk in all his games last year (he was on my fantasy team, haha), I didn't notice this steep decline that everyone is harping about at all. He seemed a tad slower but he was able to get open quite a bit.

This is all without context - he was airdropped into the offense after missing 6 games due to suspension. Played with QBs who couldn't throw TDs to save their lives (Colt McCoy, Trace McSorley). Asked to run shorter routes, and was the primary option for the entire offense, pass and run. Compare that with DPJ who had the entire offseason (albeit with Brissett + Watson) and was probably only the 4th concern on offense behind Coop, Njoku, and Chubb (yeah I know Njoku had a little less targets). Defenses didn't give a damn about DPJ, but they sure gave a damn about Nuk.

As far as games missed, Hop played in 126/128 games before missing 7 games in 2021. That's just insane.Then in 2022 he was suspended 6 games and only missed 2 because they just didn't give a damn at the end of the year. Let's not pretend he's suddenly injury prone, heh. He's 31, not 36.

Context is a bitch. Because if we throw it away entirely, we could look at last year and conclude that Sam Darnold > Watson. I know you didn't say this... but shit, maybe Darnold is ascending and Watson declining? Without context it's easy to draw that conclusion. Both played and started 6 games, but Darnold had better:

Passing Yards
Completion percentage
TD/INT ratio
Rating
QBR
IAY/PA
CAY/PA

How about EPA and CPoE, where Darnold dwarfed Watson?

Stats themselves are just data. The conclusions we draw from them (ascending vs descending) have to be carefully made when considering context. I think it's silly to be honest, but I can see how someone only looking at numbers can conclude that DPJ is better than Hopkins right now.
 
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Vee-Rex said:
Ahh, I thought you were being disingenuous but I can see how you've come to this conclusion.

I strongly disagree with the bolded, however. I don't know if DPJ is "clearly ascending" at all. Hell, that's what the team is undecided on.

Stats like aDOT do nothing for me and are heavily scheme-based. DPJ had a better aDOT than Jamarr Chase, better yards per catch than Jamarr Chase, better yards per target than Jamarr Chase, and very comparable passer rating when targeted with Jamarr Chase. Scheme plays a role with a lot of these stats. DPJ got more volume but is he clearly ascending?

Next Gen stats ranked DPJ 98 out of 114 receivers (minimum of 48 targets) in his ability to get open. Nuk ranked 39th. The clear "ascent" you've seen is mostly DPJ just getting more volume compared to his first two seasons and being in an aggressive scheme. The dude struggles to get open and has struggled his entire time here to get open, including last year where he was abysmal at getting open.

Having watched Nuk in all his games last year (he was on my fantasy team, haha), I didn't notice this steep decline that everyone is harping about at all. He seemed a tad slower but he was able to get open quite a bit.

This is all without context - he was airdropped into the offense after missing 6 games due to suspension. Played with QBs who couldn't throw TDs to save their lives (Colt McCoy, Trace McSorley). Asked to run shorter routes, and was the primary option for the entire offense, pass and run. Compare that with DPJ who had the entire offseason (albeit with Brissett + Watson) and was probably only the 4th concern on offense behind Coop, Njoku, and Chubb (yeah I know Njoku had a little less targets). Defenses didn't give a damn about DPJ, but they sure gave a damn about Nuk.

As far as games missed, Hop played in 126/128 games before missing 7 games in 2021. That's just insane.Then in 2022 he was suspended 6 games and only missed 2 because they just didn't give a damn at the end of the year. Let's not pretend he's suddenly injury prone, heh. He's 31, not 36.

Context is a bitch. Because if we throw it away entirely, we could look at last year and conclude that Sam Darnold > Watson. I know you didn't say this... but shit, maybe Darnold is ascending and Watson declining? Without context it's easy to draw that conclusion. Both played and started 6 games, but Darnold had better:

Passing Yards
Completion percentage
TD/INT ratio
Rating
QBR
IAY/PA
CAY/PA

How about EPA and CPoE, where Darnold dwarfed Watson?

Stats themselves are just data. The conclusions we draw from them (ascending vs descending) have to be carefully made when considering context. I think it's silly to be honest, but I can see how someone only looking at numbers can conclude that DPJ is better than Hopkins right now.
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I find it funny that you originally thought I was being disingenuous and then wrote this whopper of nonsense as a rebuttal :chuckle:

But you do you my guy.
 
CBBI said:
I find it funny that you originally thought I was being disingenuous and then wrote this whopper of nonsense as a rebuttal :chuckle:

But you do you my guy.
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Doesn't surprise me it went over your head. Context isn't your strong point.
 
Vee-Rex said:
Doesn't surprise me it went over your head. Context isn't your strong point.
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Nothing went over my head. You decided to act like an asshole on purpose. That's pretty much all that happened.
 
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CBBI said:
Nothing went over my head. You decided to act like an asshole on purpose. That's pretty much all that happened.
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I was going to say something else but... eh, alright. Wasn't my intention but I can see how it may seem that way.
 
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