2023 Guardians Offseason Thread!

[KluberSociety]

Only a few teams (4 I think) had full rosters. Plenty of opportunity for a team to take Hankins or Battenfield which as we know didn't happen.

I figured we'd lose at least one of them (Hankins) myself, but instead we lose a couple fringy relievers.

It feels like we are of the philosophy that:
Middle infielders are worth a premium and don't have to stay there.
Starting pitchers are worth a premium and don't have to stay there.
Non-middle infielders are stuck in their positions and have a hard ceiling.
Relieving pitchers are stuck in their position and have a hard ceiling.

Makes sense... Other teams are still picking up relievers to relieve but we know that guys like Morgan and Curry and Gaddis have just as much chance of being a good reliever as any of these reliever-only guys that are being picked up.

 

[Martyinnewyork]

Not really. I remember Bimbo stating that some in the organization thought as highly of Hankins as they did of Espino. I can't say if I agree or disagree with that, but there is no question that he is a big arm. We'll get to see how he does now that he is past his TJS.

Hankins was exposed to Rule 5 and wasn’t taken. You think Espino would have slipped through Rule 5???

 

[CDAV45]

Hankins was exposed to Rule 5 and wasn’t taken. You think Espino would have slipped through Rule 5???

They are not in the same scenario Marty. One hasn't pitched in 3 seasons due to the pandemic and TJS. The other has been pitching minus his injury last season. They are both high end arms, but sure, Espino is more valuable at this time and would have been selected. That doesn't mean Cleveland thinks any less of Hankins than they did prior to the time missed. What is the point you are trying to make here?

 

[Martyinnewyork]

They are not in the same scenario Marty. One hasn't pitched in 3 seasons due to the pandemic and TJS. The other has been pitching minus his injury last season. They are both high end arms, but sure, Espino is more valuable at this time and would have been selected. That doesn't mean Cleveland thinks any less of Hankins than they did prior to the time missed. What is the point you are trying to make here?

Good lord. You’re placing equal value on Espino and Hankins.

 

[sportscoach]

Good lord. You’re placing equal value on Espino and Hankins.

Hankins was ranked really high before all the injuries...

 

[MirORich]

Good lord. You’re placing equal value on Espino and Hankins.

I don’t know if you two hav a history or something, but no he’s not and it’s pretty clear to understand that in reading your two’s last back and forth a

 

[EdMonix11]

Good lord. You’re placing equal value on Espino and Hankins.

Espino is the best pitching prospect in the game. Hands down.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

Expect a catcher announcement in the next 5 hours.

Only 3 hours left. Put on some coffee.

 

[CDAV45]

Good lord. You’re placing equal value on Espino and Hankins.

You need to chill out and go back and reread or something. You quoted it and ignored the content "They are both high end arms, but sure, Espino is more valuable at this time and would have been selected".

 

[Criznit]

Only 3 hours left. Put on some coffee.

Uhh didn't you see??? We took one in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft.... That's my story and I am sticking to it. Lol

 

[Martyinnewyork]

You need to chill out and go back and reread or something. You quoted it and ignored the content "They are both high end arms, but sure, Espino is more valuable at this time and would have been selected".

Point made. I didn’t read your entire post. In fact, I’m getting to the point where I can’t read a majority of the posts here. A million posts on Sean Murphy trade ideas can rot one’s brain.

 

[CDAV45]

Point made. I didn’t read your entire post. In fact, I’m getting to the point where I can’t read a majority of the posts here. A million posts on Sean Murphy trade ideas can rot one’s brain.

LOL! I figured you missed it. It happens.

 

[sportscoach]

I don’t know if you two hav a history or something, but no he’s not and it’s pretty clear to understand that in reading your two’s last back and forth a

Just another day at the office in here Guardians forums haha We always have a back and forth about something in here. It's worse when there isn't much to talk about lol

 

[AZ_]

Great for Kirk to lock in a guaranteed deal.

 

[CATS44]

I don't think anyone disagrees with this. Yet, for completeness, we should dissect the numbers.

Per the Steamer projections, Bell's Steamer projections are 15.1 OWar and a -15.9 DWar to bring it down to 2.0 projected. This is similar and slightly better than Naylor's projection for 3rd on the team behind Ramirez and Kwan.

I was a bit surprised by Rosario's WAR not really the 3.4 which is 4th on the team (before Bell) but its broken down to 5.7 oWar (which is 6th on team following Oscar's 10.3 oWar proj and just ahead of Brennan's 3.4 oWar with 1/3 of the ABs) and Rosario had a whopping 6.4 dWar.

And, if we just go on projections alone, Freeman's 92 AB proj bumped by a factor of x6 to get closer to Rosario's 640 AB, he would be 3.6 oWar and 1.8 dWar for about 2.4 overall War. Arias had worse projections so I used Freeman as winning 2B.

So, yes, Rosario > Freeman still (especially as Freeman would have more even splits versus Rosario's skewed splits). But, FO is looking at it as ...

(1) They need to bring the young-lings up at sometime and it maybe the perfect time for Freeman/Arias to duke it out for a starter role (as Kwan got on day 1 last year).

(2) Freeman/Arias won't be as great per se as Rosario but it is not a huge drop off (as the hot bat will win the battle)

(3) Even if no one really stands out, by September, you have Rocchio/Tena/Noel banging on the door to replace Rosario's #s.

(4) And per analytics, righty/lefty splits do not matter much in regular season -- only in playoffs for true team-on-team matchups.

Abreu would have been prefect but he choose Houston due to better roster/WS run. But, there were guys like Myers with better splits than Bell (for true right matchup). Yet, they went Bell as #s department says to go with the better overall bat especially as you face many more righties during the year and is why we have soo many Lefties or switch hitters in our system compared to other teams (it is how the Guardians build their roster). This board angst about LHP isn't the top priority for the FO.

When you have a contending team that is dead last in any aspect of the game, fixing that significant concern is the top priority.

Anybody concerned with the playoffs should be concerned about this:

In 26 out of 67.2 innings of post season baseball we faced lefties.

************

The FO did not make a major investment in Bell, nor did it make an effort to acquire Abreu, nor is it working on making an even bigger acquisition in Murphy in order to hold more tryouts.

Antonetti said something significant the other day...

"We are not in a position to say, 'Lets just see how it goes.' We feel like we have a good team capable of competing."

Last seasons success has changed the dynamics....and the approach. Unless a trade involves an acquisition that improves the 2023 team, the FO is unlikely to trade a major piece of that success.

You can twist stats and questionable projections into as many pretzels as you want, but the fact remains that the odds of one of our kids replicating Ameds production are poor, and the odds of one matching Ameds intangibles are non existent.