2023 Guardians Offseason Thread!

[Tondo]

Roughly the equivalent of that STL ask is one of J. Naylor/O. Gonzalez, Rocchio/Kwan and Bibee/G. Williams

That's heavy

I believe Oakland has overplayed their hand and has now lost one major suitor. And whoever signs Vazquez next is out too, leaving probably only one or two teams willing to go near of their ask.

I'm not a huge Vazquez fan, but he might be the best fit with Bo Naylor. Decent balance of defense and offense, but above all proven leader and postseason experience. Contract length is the issue. 2 years with some sort of option for 3rd year would be max I'd offer

 

[Gson]

Roughly the equivalent of that STL ask is one of J. Naylor/O. Gonzalez, Rocchio/Kwan and Bibee/G. Williams

That's heavy

I believe Oakland has overplayed their hand and has now lost one major suitor. And whoever signs Vazquez next is out too, leaving probably only one or two teams willing to go near of their ask.

I'm not a huge Vazquez fan, but he might be the best fit with Bo Naylor. Decent balance of defense and offense, but above all proven leader and postseason experience. Contract length is the issue. 2 years with some sort of option for 3rd year would be max I'd offer

Found this as the "ask" for Murphy by the Cardinals:

"...Lars Nootbaar, Gold Glove-winner Brendan Donovan, and a power young pitcher like Gordon Graceffo in exchange for Murphy..."

The Guardian equivalent: Spongebob, Gimenez and one of Espino or Williams.. Time to move on..

So, yes.. the A's have clearly over played their hand.. they can now go back to Oakland with their four catchers still on their roster while planning on having another 100 + loss season and no hope for improving on that..

 

[petes999]

You can twist stats and questionable projections into as many pretzels as you want, but the fact remains that the odds of one of our kids replicating Ameds production are poor, and the odds of one matching Ameds intangibles are non existent.

Those robots also project Amed to be a 3.3 WAR player next year. How many rookies have we had that put up 3.3 WAR in this century?

Funny, I was just expanding on the projections of Rosario War that you started with (just breaking it down into pieces).... but I am the one twisitng stats.... but it is what it is...water under the bridge. We both believe what we believe and season will play itself out to see who can read Chris's mind the best. And the odds of 1 guy beating Amed's stats as a rookie is poor (agreed with you on that) but having 3 guys to choose from (one near the playoffs in Rocchio), makes it more likely statistically that they get closer when it counts in October (and I won't even mention Kwan or Oscar's 2.1 in 362 ABs project for full year -- to say it can actually happen as I agreed with your premise replacement is more often than not < Rosario till year 2, 3 or 4).

The FO did not make a major investment in Bell, nor did it make an effort to acquire Abreu, nor is it working on making an even bigger acquisition in Murphy in order to hold more tryouts.

Antonetti said something significant the other day...

"We are not in a position to say, 'Lets just see how it goes.' We feel like we have a good team capable of competing."

What you are implying is not necessarily what he is saying. A leopard doesn't change his spots - tendencies remain. They targeted a window based on their prospects that they clearly talked about last year (Asst GM -- saying it is nice to get to the playoffs but we think we can compete with these prospects). The window just opened up earlier which is why they started to spend to bridge the gap to the prospects they believe in (why 1 year --- possibly 2 year on Bell) to help with winning and competing. They are not going to sell the farm on Murphy to make this a 1-2 year window while they have Bieber, Bell and Rosario (because we are just going to tank it all without Rosario's intangibles -- sorry for sarcasm).

Thus, like September, Tito will slow down the youth movement but they are still going to rely on rookies like Brennan and Naylor and ..... to take over for guys at the end of their "Guardian" window to extend this playoff window as long as possible for when Bibee, Williams and Espino can carry the load (or one of them would have been gone for Murphy already). But, to get to that next wave, you want to dam up the waters a bit (slow it down but not hold it back where we have another 17 guys trying to rush in all at once but 2-3 players a year like Naylor, Freeman/Arias and Morris this year, Rocchio with Valera and Allen/Burns/Bibee next year and then .... to work everyone in without a big dropoff). We will see if it is this year, next year or if Rosario is actually extended. We believe what we believe ... and I agree there is historical precedence and logic to both .... thus we don't need to twist words or stats to try to beat each other up for it. Just lay out our side and let others understand different ways to think through the issues as GM speak can be twisted all we want to fit our narative.

 

[sportscoach]

Roughly the equivalent of that STL ask is one of J. Naylor/O. Gonzalez, Rocchio/Kwan and Bibee/G. Williams

That's heavy

I believe Oakland has overplayed their hand and has now lost one major suitor. And whoever signs Vazquez next is out too, leaving probably only one or two teams willing to go near of their ask.

I'm not a huge Vazquez fan, but he might be the best fit with Bo Naylor. Decent balance of defense and offense, but above all proven leader and postseason experience. Contract length is the issue. 2 years with some sort of option for 3rd year would be max I'd offer

It's even worse than that...

Via BTV Donovan is 37.9, Graceffo is 15 and Nootbar is 32.8 and they have Murphy at 51.3...

I don't think the values are perfect of course, but via them, A's are delusional if they think they will get that much for Murphy

 

[Soar]

Small tidbit from the below article….

“Mike Zunino is said to be ready to sign soon, possibly with Boston or Cleveland”

 

[Benway]

I will be less impressed with Zunino.

 

[Alabuckeye]

At this point I wonder if expectation regarding Murphy outweighs true value. Which is the nature of Hot Stove league.

zunino appears to have had a wash of a 2022 season. BA is in Maile/Perez/Hedges territory with potential of much more power.

 

[Soar]

Zunino’s health is the biggest key.

But I can’t blame the G’s for getting him if his health seems okay. The prices for Murphy and even others seem crazy. Plus if they really feel good about Naylor, and by a lot of accounts they do, it’s a workable duo.

The more intriguing part would be still not having made a trade when our prospect depth almost demands it, so wonder if we start examining SP or we talk to Pitt about Reynolds or some other unknown type options.

 

[CBBI]

The thing about overplaying your hand is that it’s great if it works, but you’re the one left holding the bag when people move on.

I would be very surprised if Murphy wasn’t eventually traded before this season starts for a lot less than that article suggested. Not saying it will be to the Guardians, but when the inevitable trade happens, it won’t come close to that rumored ask they made of St. Louis.

 

[Damage]

I suspect you meant Gavin Williams and not Hankins?

Yes sorry

 

[Damage]

Putting Hankins in the same group with Espino and Valera is curious.

GAVIN WILLIAMS I meant. My bad

 

[petes999]

Zunino’s health is the biggest key.

But I can’t blame the G’s for getting him if his health seems okay. The prices for Murphy and even others seem crazy. Plus if they really feel good about Naylor, and by a lot of accounts they do, it’s a workable duo.

The more intriguing part would be still not having made a trade when our prospect depth almost demands it, so wonder if we start examining SP or we talk to Pitt about Reynolds or some other unknown type options.

I would assume they at least look at the trade market. I think Reynolds goes for more than we expect due to the demand for Nimmo with needs in CF, so we could at least look at the pitching market for the next Mahle.

Also a tidbit from MLBTR but also heard elsewhere ... The next-best free agent on the market, Christian Vazquez, has been clear about his desire to receive more playing time than he did following an August trade to Houston, where Maldonado remained the starter behind the plate even after Vazquez was acquired.

Vazquez played 30 games in 2 months for Houston (but only 2 starts in playoffs). But, with Naylor, he may get 50% or more in the 1st year but really in the 2nd and 3rd years? He is looking for the main starter role not a co-catcher role it seems.

 

[Urban]

I'd take Zunino on a 1 year deal and hope he stays healthy, returns to form, and can add some much needed power to this lineup

But realistically I'm expecting 2022 Franmil Reyes offensive output but with defensive value. I suppose we can and have done worse at catcher in recent years.

 

[macbdog]

Mike Zunino certainly has the hitting profile of a Guardians catcher.

 

[DerekG123]

Dont hear much chatter on the pitching side.

So I assume its signing a catcher then trading Rosario is the plan to finish the offseason.