2023 Guardians Offseason Thread!

[Funkball2]

I would include Valera yes

Agreed. I have a weird feeling Valera’s stock is as high as it’s going to get.

 

[DCTribefan]

A few thoughts on the tet^a^tet over Sean Murphy & Danny Jansen..

@CDAV45 has made the convincing argument that, when healthy, Jansen is every bit the hitter Murphy is.. ALL aspects of the defensive side of the game.. is aside or it is agreed by everyone that Sean Murphy is a superior backstop..

@Tondo has made the convincing argument that Jansen has one outlier season where he approached the kind of offensive ability Sean Murphy has on display, regularly.. And he's correct..

Everyone agrees that both the A's and the Jays have surplus catching...

Everybody agrees that knowing who Bimbo really is just isn't worth the drama..

Here's what I believe... Getting Sean Murphy is a pipedream.. the A's have already established a value that is clearly above and beyond what CleFO wants to pay.. END OF STORY.. IF the A's adjust their price, then a reassessment would be in order.. With as many teams in need of a backstop..the A's have no incentive to change their position..

Danny Jansen is within the Guardians range for an acquisition.. but is not the ideal candidate.. Again.. any offer (and there's no belief from this author there will be one) will reflect the value CleFO puts on Jansen..and the Jays won't be satisfied..

Other trades are out there.. Other backstops are out there.. some are fully ready.. some are coming off injury.. some are too young.. only one is just right.. We'll see.. Winter meetings begin in just about 2 weeks.. Catchers and Pitchers report to spring training in Goodyear Arizona in approximately 12 weeks and a few days... Perhaps, by then, the dire catching situation will be less dire?..

See bolded comment.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Is there a market for Jhonkensy Noel? His stance and swing is just goofy.

Valera I would not trade. That's some clean power.

They are? Like yeah, he is very low and pronounced, but that isn't goofy. Does that to unlock his legs. Stances don't matter much when 99.9% of pro players get to the same spot through the hitting zone regardless of their starting point.

I love his swing for a big raw power guy. Almost 0 head movement, uses his lower body extremely well for a young hitter, very short swing for a guy who has hit 51 HRs over his last 800 PAs.

But yes, there would be a market. He is the best pure power hitter in the minors right now.

 

[BimboColesHair]

See bolded comment.

Shut up, boomer.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

He is the best pure power hitter in the minors right now.

Should I take this as written, or did you mean the best pure power hitter in our minors?

 

[BimboColesHair]

Should I take this as written, or did you mean the best pure power hitter in our minors?

Our minors.

But he is up there for the entire minors. His HR/PA rate over the last 2 seasons is 3rd best in the entire minors over that time frame among qualified hitters. Guys in front of him aren't prospects either (Daniel Palka, Matt Davidson).

 

[CBBI]

Guys, how many times have we said because Guardians did this, expect a big trade because of it???? How many times has it happened?

More I think about Maile DFA, the less I really understand it. Going into next season betting on one of the 5 catchers coming to Cleveland is very risky, especially as FO now has no leverage. If you telegraph your intentions, why would Oakland come off their demands even if Cleveland is the highest bidder? What would have been the cost of trading Maile and est $1.3 million to some other needy team? At most, you are throwing in his salary above league minimum $600,000 for a bag of balls. I almost could argue that Cleveland saw Rule 5 draft line up and decided they needed the space now to either draft a reliever or Milas.

Yet, that even assumes Cleveland would be the highest bidder for even one of the 5. And, it is only going to take one team like a Tampa, Padres, Det or Mets to jump in and take one of the Big 3 making all other teams scramble (Houston, Boston, St Louis, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Cubs) after the remnants. And, not all are really in Cleveland's wheel house

Contrares - At age 31 next May, he is going to want a long-term contract now while he has leverage in this market. Plus, he DWar per BR is an average of .8 over last 4 years.

Vazquez - Having played in Boston and Houston, I would assume one of these teams had the inside edge. And saw Heyman adding Milwaukee to his list at an est 3 yr $33 million (not in Cleveland wheel house).

Narvaez -- Not the LHB that we want vs RHP and hasn't had a DWar above .4 in his career.

Zunino - As Bimbo said, he has a nice bat vs LHP but coming off major surgery. And, he has only 1 dWar above 1 in his career.

Janson - Is another issue of can he catch more than 70 games and his DWar is .75 over the last 2 season while catching 70 and 72 games without breaking down.

Murphy - We may think that we have the inside edge due to our prospects (but Tampa is just as good if not better, Cubs are up there too and Cardinals has good top-end prospects). However, it was listed in a blog that both Cleveland and Boston thought they had him at the trade deadline. And, how much did the As request come down in the last few months? And, with their Rule 5 crunch coming next year, will they take off the back end on # of players or the front end of needing top-4 prospect? Did Cleveland FO actually not think 10 steps ahead (like many believe with their moves now) and said we will just wait a few months to get him (ignore this year's playoff potential run) and only after we get rid of Hedges and Maile will we bite the bullet?

In all honesty, if we cannot come to a clear path for Cleveland on who to get, there probably isn't one.

I feel like the Guardians are pretty acutely aware that they can resign one of Hedges or Maile pretty much at any time for a very inexpensive price.

They'll go shopping for a catcher in the trade market, but if it doesn't come to fruition, they'll just bring back one of the guys from this year, right?

 

[BimboColesHair]

I feel like the Guardians are pretty acutely aware that they can resign one of Hedges or Maile pretty much at any time for a very inexpensive price.

They'll go shopping for a catcher in the trade market, but if it doesn't come to fruition, they'll just bring back one of the guys from this year, right?

Most likely, yes.

 

[petes999]

They'll go shopping for a catcher in the trade market, but if it doesn't come to fruition, they'll just bring back one of the guys from this year, right?

I get that as I have been the one saying the Hedges will probably be the next Shaw (have a wink and nod agreement that he is already back at inflated proce -- FO just needed to get to ST to do official sign to keep someone stashed from Rule 5 like Battenfield which they didn't do).

I also understood why they kept Maile for 2 days waiting for official non-tender day as Bimbo said, he could have just been a placeholder in offseason (and as I said he could be traded for a small cost of part of salary). But, it would have been a floor of what is acceptable for Guardians that they got rid of.

I am also a proponent of drafting Milas in Rule 5 and even going 3 rookies in some fashion to limit usage and injury concerns (Naylor, Fry, Lavastida, Milas) -- giving Fry and/or Lavastida some Right-handed play at 1st over a Miller (as he probably isn't in our long-term plans with all our infielders coming up).

Yet, for all those who say Guardians have a plan, then I say execute on the plan versus going into the offseason with only naked options that may quicky be called -- as Maile and Hedges won't stick around in FA just waiting on Guardians to slow play this market. Naked option is needing to payout when the market wildly swings to your detriment because you didn't create a floor (a way out that is acceptable loss to you -- like keeping Maile as a placeholder).

But, if 8-9 teams are battling over our 2-3 acceptable solutions (Murphy, Jansen and Zunino) what are the odds that we come up with nothing? If 1/2 teams are looking for back-ups, what are the odds that Hedges and Maile get snapped up before we are ready? -- It may only be 20-25% chance that we end up with squat but it would have only costed $600,000 to avoid that.

 

[Gson]

btw... ya'all can put Martin Maldonado into the mix of "last resort" catchers to bring on... He can't hit.. and strikes out a whole lot.. He makes his money by handling the pitching staff and being an excellent defensive catcher that can play lots and lots of innings..

 

[Benway]

Stances don't matter much when 99.9% of pro players get to the same spot through the hitting zone regardless of their starting point.

I was talking about Noel to an old ballplayer last Summer, mostly because I think his stance is weird.
He replied, "But when they swing, they're always in the right place."

Sometimes it's hard to accept things that you don't see every day. (Although I never questioned Rod Carew's funky hunch.)

 

[BimboColesHair]

I was talking about Noel to an old ballplayer last Summer, mostly because I think his stance is weird.
He replied, "But when they swing, they're always in the right place."

Sometimes it's hard to accept things that you don't see every day. (Although I never questioned Rod Carew's funky hunch.)

It really is amazing in sports where you are hitting something with another thing (baseball, golf, tennis) how similar everyone looks leading in to contact.

The setups are different. But you get guys like Jim Furyk or Craig Counsell or Frances Tiafoe in their respective sports with weird backswings, stances, loads, etc. but they look exactly the same as their competitors when they are approaching the ball.

The key in baseball is everyone gets to the same spot. But not everyone can keep their bat in the hitting zone as long as each other. What separates good hitters from okay and bad hitters. Why Albert Pujols is arguably the best all-around hitter we have ever seen in our lifetimes, no one kept the bat in the hitting zone longer than him.

 

[Criznit]

The key in baseball is everyone gets to the same spot. But not everyone can keep their bat in the hitting zone as long as each other. What separates good hitters from okay and bad hitters. Why Albert Pujols is arguably the best all-around hitter we have ever seen in our lifetimes, no one kept the bat in the hitting zone longer than him.

Could this perhaps be Oscar Gonzalez's "secret sauce" for his somewhat inauspicious profile? He really does seem to display the ability to put "the bat on the ball" to me...

@Benway - Noel's does look funky as the pitcher winds up/delivers, but he squares up so quick with some of the best raw power I have seen in the system since I started following it. I am sure you have watched his highlights, some of the shots are bombs among bombs. Valera certainly has power chops, but I cannot wait to see what Noel can do in the Columbus bandbox next season. Could look like a videogame.


Oh and funky stances - Can't leave out Mr. Jeff Bagwell....

 

[daddywags]

I was talking about Noel to an old ballplayer last Summer, mostly because I think his stance is weird.
He replied, "But when they swing, they're always in the right place."

Sometimes it's hard to accept things that you don't see every day. (Although I never questioned Rod Carew's funky hunch.)

"It's only a hitch when you're in a slump."

Leon Wagner

 

[KluberSociety]

Why would we want to trade our best source of RH power in the minors? Makes zero sense IMO... Like sure if he's the difference between getting Murphy or not, or whatever because the other team is set on him, then so be it. But he stands alone in his skillset.

Jansen yeah, I'd want him but Toronto isn't exactly a team who trades away their most productive players when in "win now" mode and I just think we'd have to pry him away. My guess is he stays put because nobody meets their demands. At this point with the Kirk/Jansen tandem working well for them I would be less surprised to see Moreno go even if he was previously considered "untouchable". Catching isn't exactly a situation where you trade away what's working.

Jansen is a very good defensive catcher too. He may be a few steps behind Murphy but he'd probably be well above our in-house options at least in 2023.