2023 NBA Draft

[adam81king]

My model takes inputs for age and a combination of frame / athletic profile but it doesn't consider how good someone is at dribbling, for example. I'd leave that stuff to more qualitative assessment. You use modeling and benchmarking to bucket players.....and then lean on qualitative measures to decide which of those in the "plus outcomes" bucket should be selected with your pick.

I've done a bunch of different modeling exercises for draft stuff.......and none come close to just tracking total production relative to their position. My model doesn't care how someone produces impact, just that they do.......and I think that is probably why it has been successful (that it doesn't use a more narrow lens and only look for very specific things in a prospect).

I should've used "usage" instead of "ball-handling" in my question. In college ball, guards tend to run the show. Guys like Curry and McCollum had very high usage, whereas many bigger guys tend to get scraps. That's why I was asking if your model had any adjustments for how often a player has the ball, or if it was just flat production. I have my answer, though. Thanks, again.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I should've used "usage" instead of "ball-handling" in my question. In college ball, guards tend to run the show. Guys like Curry and McCollum had very high usage, whereas many bigger guys tend to get scraps. That's why I was asking if your model had any adjustments for how often a player has the ball, or if it was just flat production. I have my answer, though. Thanks, again.

It’s possession based production…..and then to your point, comparing to position is what is a great differentiator modeling wise.

So I don’t care how Paul George compared to Steph Curry, as to your point, a Steph Curry type will just have the ball more in college…..and thus is more likely to produce raw stats.

But I do care how Paul George compared to Kawhi, as getting a sense for production relative to positional peers tends to be a much better baseline for how unique a prospect is.

So that is the idea anyway. How does this PG compare to all the other PG’s. How does this SF compare to all the other SF’s. Etc, etc.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I'll continue to beat this drum for all the people still being sour on not having picks.

This is the smallest pool of above median players in the possession era.

Does this draft have high end talent? Absolutely. Does this draft have quality depth? No.....it is a horrifically bad draft once you get past that top tier.

Just 13 college players remain in the high success bucket (above that .80 in median production relative to their position). Several more are likely to roll off as the season goes on.

As a point of reference.......the 2022 draft had 10 players producing above the level Sasser is at currently. And not only that but some good early returns too.

In addition to the 10 guys listed above, there were also ANOTHER 19 players that were in the high success bucket. So 29 players last year, 13 players this year. WOOOOF.

If you are looking at assigning an actual value grade to the pick we gave up THIS year, it is absolutely like trading a second round pick. The available options at our current slot (24) are just really underwhelming. Indiana's FO has to be pissed that pick was not conveyed last year. It is the difference between them having Eason or Sengun and someone who is very unlikely to stick in the NBA as a 1st rounder. Rough break for the Pacers.

 

[adam81king]

I'll continue to beat this drum for all the people still being sour on not having picks.

This is the smallest pool of above median players in the possession era.

Does this draft have high end talent? Absolutely. Does this draft have quality depth? No.....it is a horrifically bad draft once you get past that top tier.

Just 13 college players remain in the high success bucket (above that .80 in median production relative to their position). Several more are likely to roll off as the season goes on.

As a point of reference.......the 2022 draft had 10 players producing above the level Sasser is at currently. And not only that but some good early returns too.

In addition to the 10 guys listed above, there were also ANOTHER 19 players that were in the high success bucket. So 29 players last year, 13 players this year. WOOOOF.

If you are looking at assigning an actual value grade to the pick we gave up THIS year, it is absolutely like trading a second round pick. The available options at our current slot (24) are just really underwhelming. Indiana's FO has to be pissed that pick was not conveyed last year. It is the difference between them having Eason or Sengun and someone who is very unlikely to stick in the NBA as a 1st rounder. Rough break for the Pacers.

That drum? I'm gonna beat it for a Dick that fills all our holes. He's big, long and pops a good shot. #ILoveDick #GimmeGradey

 

[Benway]

I would draft Terquavion Smith just for his name.
Can we by our way back into the first round?

 

[I'mWithDan]

I would draft Terquavion Smith just for his name.
Can we by our way back into the first round?

I think there will be sellers in the 1st this year......just looking at the current pool of players.

This looks like more of an 18-20 player draft, if you are more analytically inclined.

The bigger question to me, is just wether enough of these guys ranked 20-40 are worth guaranteeing a contract to.

The pool of guys I'd be willing to buy a pick for would be small. Looking at consensus mock drafts, Hendricks and Shannon Jr. might be the only two where there is alignment, at least for me. Hendricks as an upside player, Shannon as someone who is physically ready to play and can shoot. Everyone else in going in that last 1st range is just pretty meh to me.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Ok, last one spamming the thread here recently.

I'll probably wait until the end of the season to pull all this again but I got some data on the OTE and Euro guys.

I'll duck here......but Victor definitely doesn't model (statistically) like a traditional #1 pick. That isn't to say my opinion has changed at all.......just that it is interesting his production level falls where it does. Well below Sengun for example. Obviously his frame is so unique none of it probably matters.......but was super interesting at first glance.

Brandon Miller continues to pop and ascend. Whoever gets him is very, very likely to get one of the best players in this draft. Aside from Victor and Miller......my model is just really unsure about almost everyone else in the top 10. Probably a draft where the best players are not proportionally going to come from the top 10.

In terms of guys in our range, relative to mock draft capital (to this point), Jaylen Clark definitely stands out. He has a really solid rotational profile. Does a little bit of everything well and produces hustle stats at a really high level for a guard / wing. Will be interested to see how he measures.

EDIT: One caveat here is the OTE / G-League guys........really, really mixed results through the first few years of prospects heading this route. There really haven't been enough guys go through in the possession era to get a handle on what their PDIFF means in the grand scheme of things (vs. college players, where we know it is a great leading indicator)......but I just include it as food for thought.

 

[Muffinalt]

Ok, last one spamming the thread here recently.

I'll probably wait until the end of the season to pull all this again but I got some data on the OTE and Euro guys.

I'll duck here......but Victor definitely doesn't model (statistically) like a traditional #1 pick. That isn't to say my opinion has changed at all.......just that it is interesting his production level falls where it does. Well below Sengun for example. Obviously his frame is so unique none of it probably matters.......but was super interesting at first glance.

Brandon Miller continues to pop and ascend. Whoever gets him is very, very likely to get one of the best players in this draft. Aside from Victor and Miller......my model is just really unsure about almost everyone else in the top 10. Probably a draft where the best players are not proportionally going to come from the top 10.

In terms of guys in our range, relative to mock draft capital (to this point), Jaylen Clark definitely stands out. He has a really solid rotational profile. Does a little bit of everything well and produces hustle stats at a really high level for a guard / wing. Will be interested to see how he measures.

Appreciate your work and all the great info as always! Especially in these non tanking years where many of us arw checked out.

 

[narbar32]

"My guy" in the late 1st this year is no Tari Eason........but still, love this kid.

I hate that he's getting a lot of "sleeper" pub it seems.


EDIT: I didn't see that @stickboltman had beat me to this already! Hendricks and Colby Jones were the guys I had earmarked if the Cavs were going to buy a 1st. Looks like I can only be the co-pilot on Hendricks bandwagon.

Colby Jones sexy time.....I think he's forced in to a lead role at X but would be a potentially good complimentary role scorer, shooter, creator in the NBA.

Holy fucking shit.

Slow day at work, sort of obsessing over possibilities for uncovering "the guy" at SF to complete our starting lineup, either via trade or draft. Haven't given nearly as much thought about draft prospects as I usually do by this time of year because of our lack of picks. But I figured I would start my highly scientific "draft research" by using this special tool I have called "Google" to search for sleeper prospects currently slated to be available at the end of the first round or into the second. I breeze through some names and profiles looking specifically for SF/PF types who might be able to replicate in some ways what we had with Lauri and then, out of nowhere, BAM...

Taylor Hendricks blasts me straight in the face.

So I plug his name into this other tool I often consult called "Youtube" with a special secret passcode that I've learned to add called "highlights" and my brain is off to the races. All this kid does is defend, dunk, and shoot threes! I didn't see a single miss in any of the Film that I watched!

So then I'm like, wait, I haven't visited our draft thread in a dog's age, I wonder who the boys are talking about in there. And not to get weird, but I did actually specifically wonder if your model has identified any hidden gems just waiting to be unearthed, as I tend to agree with your model to a weird, almost-stalkerish extent--well, a combination of yours and @Nathan S, like most everyone else around here for the past few years before Nathan left us for greener (or bluer) horse pastures. I loved Sengun and Barnes and was a true Eason Island Boy last year, for example.

So i'm scrolling through the thread and what to my wondering eyes should appear but my fucking dude @stickboltman bringing up Hendricks and so I start to get chubbed, then I look under his post and see of all fucking things a "love" reaction from you, and THEN I see you specifically identify him as YOUR guy in this draft??? Insert Randy Marsh meme here.

I'm sure this isn't as crazy to anybody else as it is to me, but I'm not being entirely tongue in cheek here posting this, as it really is just nuts to me that of all the random late prospects in the draft, the first time I start looking up shit and decide on my guy, I come in here and see he's your guy too. Basically, I'm saying this:

Retire your model, dude. Stop doing unnecessary work and kick your feet up and enjoy life a little. Just send me a list of names, I'll spend some time on Youtube, and I'll just let you know who your model would love IF you ran the names through it. Sign, sealed, delivered.

 

[Futuredome]

I am not as big on Wemba as a few months ago. Weak draft, weak college basketball season.

 

[I'mWithDan]

The guy that continues to perform at the SF spot, who has got little NBA juice thus far, is Jalen Bridges out of Baylor.

Consensus mock still has him in the 100's but he's a small forward prospect in the high success bucket. Looks like The Athletic pegs him in the 70 ish range.

He seems so under the radar that he doesn't even have a highlight film from this year but with only a second round pick and his performance / size profile, he's emerging as an interesting name to me right now.

 

[I'mWithDan]

And then one more guy that I wanted to shoutout here...... Brandin Podziemski.

Pretty interesting Guard prospect. Started at Illinois, transferred to Santa Clara and has shown an interesting mix of just all around production.

Plus shooting numbers and has flashed some on the move shooting this year. Will be interesting to see how he measures and tests.

 

[MD13]

Ok, last one spamming the thread here recently.

I'll probably wait until the end of the season to pull all this again but I got some data on the OTE and Euro guys.

I'll duck here......but Victor definitely doesn't model (statistically) like a traditional #1 pick. That isn't to say my opinion has changed at all.......just that it is interesting his production level falls where it does. Well below Sengun for example. Obviously his frame is so unique none of it probably matters.......but was super interesting at first glance.

Brandon Miller continues to pop and ascend. Whoever gets him is very, very likely to get one of the best players in this draft. Aside from Victor and Miller......my model is just really unsure about almost everyone else in the top 10. Probably a draft where the best players are not proportionally going to come from the top 10.

In terms of guys in our range, relative to mock draft capital (to this point), Jaylen Clark definitely stands out. He has a really solid rotational profile. Does a little bit of everything well and produces hustle stats at a really high level for a guard / wing. Will be interested to see how he measures.

EDIT: One caveat here is the OTE / G-League guys........really, really mixed results through the first few years of prospects heading this route. There really haven't been enough guys go through in the possession era to get a handle on what their PDIFF means in the grand scheme of things (vs. college players, where we know it is a great leading indicator)......but I just include it as food for thought.

Interesting, why doesn't your model love Wembanyama?

 

[adam81king]

The guy that continues to perform at the SF spot, who has got little NBA juice thus far, is Jalen Bridges out of Baylor.

Consensus mock still has him in the 100's but he's a small forward prospect in the high success bucket. Looks like the Athletic pegs him in the 70 ish range.

He seems so under the radar that he doesn't even have a highlight film from this year but with only a second round pick and his performance / size profile, he's emerging as an interesting name to me right now.

Curious what your model likes about him with his 3% and FTs both being down from last year and is ppg being under 10?

And then one more guy that I wanted to shoutout here...... Brandin Podziemski.

Pretty interesting Guard prospect. Started at Illinois, transferred to Santa Clara and has shown an interesting mix of just all around production.

Plus shooting numbers and has flashed some on the move shooting this year. Will be interesting to see how he measures and tests.

100000% no. I saw his espn.com picture and I will turn in my Cavaliers fan card if they pick him.

 

[adam81king]

Brandin Podziemski - Golden State Warriors Guard - ESPN

View the profile of Golden State Warriors Guard Brandin Podziemski on ESPN. Get the latest news, live stats and game highlights.

www.espn.com