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Last series before the break and the Guardians are playing their best ball of the season (somewhat of a low bar on that), going 10-6 in their last 16. The Royals, who just lost three straight to the Twins by a combined score of 22-7, are 25-62, just three percentage points ahead of the A's for baseball's worst record. The Royals are 12-31 on the road.
These teams played in KC a week ago with the Guardians taking two of three; the loss was in 10 innings. The Royals are last in the majors in runs per game on the road at 3.33. The Guardians are second worst at home scoring at 3.50. The worst scoring road team against the second worst scoring home team. These could be four really boring games.
The Guardians lead baseball in one-run games so if you're looking for close, low scoring games this could be your series.
The Royals' hitters rank 28th in walks so there's no need to challenge them too much - they'll swing away. They're also 28th in home runs so the Guardians' pitchers will appreciate going from the best team in baseball at hitting home runs to almost the worst. The Guardians, of course, are last in home runs so we may not see five home runs all weekend.
The Royals are hitting just .227/.654 against RHP's. They are better against lefties and better at home; they have neither in their favor this weekend. However, Salvador Perez has 14 of his 15 home runs against RHP's so he needs to be pitched carefully.
In last week's three-game series in KC the Royals as a team hit .140/.407 against Guardians' pitching, scoring six runs with no home runs. When you add in the Twins series they've scored 13 runs in their last six games.
The Royals' staff is 27th in road ERA at 5.25 so this might be an opportunity to actually entertain the home fans with some runs for once. Since June 1 the Guardians rank 13th in runs while the Royals are last. (From the start of the season until May 31 the Guardians were last in runs, so they've improved from 30th to 13th over the last six weeks).
The Royals' pitchers rank 26th in walks per game so the Guardians need to be patient at the plate and avoid chasing early in the count. Zach Greinke, who pitched against the Guardians last week, has been put on the 15-day IL.
The Guardians scored 18 runs in three games in KC last week. Seven of the 18 runs came in one inning against a minor league pitcher so the Guardians weren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. Brady Singer shut them out for six innings and Greinke held them to two runs in six innings. The Royals had five relievers who pitched at least one scoreless inning so you don't want them getting a lead late, especially if Aroldis Chapman is available. Why haven't they traded him?
Josh Naylor apparently is ready to return to action so that should help. Jose was 4-for-9 with four walks against KC last week. Will Brennan was 5-for-12 and Josh Bell finally found a team he can hit, going 4-for-13 with 5 RBI's.
On to the pitching matchups.
Tanner Bibee (5-2, 3.46) vs. RHP Jordan Lyles (1-11, 6.68) tonight.
Aaron Civale (2-2, 2.96) vs. LHP Daniel Lynch (2-3, 4.14) Friday.
Gavin Williams (0-1, 3.79) vs. RHP Brady Singer (5-7, 5.52) Saturday.
Shane Bieber (5-5, 3.66) vs. TBD Sunday (Greinke's spot).
Bibee gets it started against Jordan Lyles tonight. Lyles is a 32-year-old right-hander with a career mark of 67-101 and a 5.20 ERA. With 64 K's in 91 innings he's a pitch-to-contact guy. We missed him last week in KC. Lyles' road ERA is 8.02 against 5.51 at home. Kaufmann Stadium is a strong pitchers' park, so Lyles is really having a bad year. He's allowed 19 home runs. With RISP opponents are 27-for-60 against him (.450 BA). Jose is 4-for-7 against him; Bell is 1-for-10.
The Royals are 1-15 when Lyles' starts. He was sick last week and has not pitched in 12 days. His last two starts were on the road and he allowed 3 and 4 runs in six innings each.
Tanner Bibee did not face the Royals last week so they will be getting their first look at him. Bibee is coming off a very good start against the Cubs, going 5.2 innings with 3 hits, no runs, and 9 K's. Bibee has been much better at home (2.38 ERA) than on the road (4.65).
This is a chance for the Guardians to finish the first half strong. They are two games behind the Twins who have a three-game series against Baltimore this weekend. Sweeping the Royals while the Twins go 1-2 against the O's would put the Guardians in first place by a half game going into the break. But it's tough to beat any team four straight. Anything less than three wins this weekend would be completely unacceptable against one of the worst teams in many years that is on pace to go 47-115.
These teams played in KC a week ago with the Guardians taking two of three; the loss was in 10 innings. The Royals are last in the majors in runs per game on the road at 3.33. The Guardians are second worst at home scoring at 3.50. The worst scoring road team against the second worst scoring home team. These could be four really boring games.
The Guardians lead baseball in one-run games so if you're looking for close, low scoring games this could be your series.
The Royals' hitters rank 28th in walks so there's no need to challenge them too much - they'll swing away. They're also 28th in home runs so the Guardians' pitchers will appreciate going from the best team in baseball at hitting home runs to almost the worst. The Guardians, of course, are last in home runs so we may not see five home runs all weekend.
The Royals are hitting just .227/.654 against RHP's. They are better against lefties and better at home; they have neither in their favor this weekend. However, Salvador Perez has 14 of his 15 home runs against RHP's so he needs to be pitched carefully.
In last week's three-game series in KC the Royals as a team hit .140/.407 against Guardians' pitching, scoring six runs with no home runs. When you add in the Twins series they've scored 13 runs in their last six games.
The Royals' staff is 27th in road ERA at 5.25 so this might be an opportunity to actually entertain the home fans with some runs for once. Since June 1 the Guardians rank 13th in runs while the Royals are last. (From the start of the season until May 31 the Guardians were last in runs, so they've improved from 30th to 13th over the last six weeks).
The Royals' pitchers rank 26th in walks per game so the Guardians need to be patient at the plate and avoid chasing early in the count. Zach Greinke, who pitched against the Guardians last week, has been put on the 15-day IL.
The Guardians scored 18 runs in three games in KC last week. Seven of the 18 runs came in one inning against a minor league pitcher so the Guardians weren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. Brady Singer shut them out for six innings and Greinke held them to two runs in six innings. The Royals had five relievers who pitched at least one scoreless inning so you don't want them getting a lead late, especially if Aroldis Chapman is available. Why haven't they traded him?
Josh Naylor apparently is ready to return to action so that should help. Jose was 4-for-9 with four walks against KC last week. Will Brennan was 5-for-12 and Josh Bell finally found a team he can hit, going 4-for-13 with 5 RBI's.
On to the pitching matchups.
Tanner Bibee (5-2, 3.46) vs. RHP Jordan Lyles (1-11, 6.68) tonight.
Aaron Civale (2-2, 2.96) vs. LHP Daniel Lynch (2-3, 4.14) Friday.
Gavin Williams (0-1, 3.79) vs. RHP Brady Singer (5-7, 5.52) Saturday.
Shane Bieber (5-5, 3.66) vs. TBD Sunday (Greinke's spot).
Bibee gets it started against Jordan Lyles tonight. Lyles is a 32-year-old right-hander with a career mark of 67-101 and a 5.20 ERA. With 64 K's in 91 innings he's a pitch-to-contact guy. We missed him last week in KC. Lyles' road ERA is 8.02 against 5.51 at home. Kaufmann Stadium is a strong pitchers' park, so Lyles is really having a bad year. He's allowed 19 home runs. With RISP opponents are 27-for-60 against him (.450 BA). Jose is 4-for-7 against him; Bell is 1-for-10.
The Royals are 1-15 when Lyles' starts. He was sick last week and has not pitched in 12 days. His last two starts were on the road and he allowed 3 and 4 runs in six innings each.
Tanner Bibee did not face the Royals last week so they will be getting their first look at him. Bibee is coming off a very good start against the Cubs, going 5.2 innings with 3 hits, no runs, and 9 K's. Bibee has been much better at home (2.38 ERA) than on the road (4.65).
This is a chance for the Guardians to finish the first half strong. They are two games behind the Twins who have a three-game series against Baltimore this weekend. Sweeping the Royals while the Twins go 1-2 against the O's would put the Guardians in first place by a half game going into the break. But it's tough to beat any team four straight. Anything less than three wins this weekend would be completely unacceptable against one of the worst teams in many years that is on pace to go 47-115.
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