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After a brief pause the boys of summer are back. The Guardians roll into the second half with a 45-45 record and a half-game lead over the Twins in the A.L. Central. They start on the road against the Texas Rangers, who lead the West with a 52-39 record, third best in the A.L. The Rangers are 27-18 at home. They had five of the eight position starters in the All-Star game and one pitcher.
The Guardians seem to be catching Texas at a good time as the Rangers have lost 11 of their last 16. I’m not sure what’s going on with that. The Guardians have won 13 of 20.
The Rangers are an incredible +148 in run differential, second only to Tampa at +149. The Atlanta Braves are +147 and have a record of 60-29, nine games better than the Rangers. The Orioles are 19 games over .500 despite a +48. So the Rangers have been 100 runs better than the O’s but have fewer wins. It’s astonishing that the Rangers have outscored their opponents by 148 runs but are only 13 games over .500. They’ve been very inefficient in translating runs into wins.
The Rangers have won 10 games by 10 runs or more, including an 18-3 win over Oakland. They’ve won five games by nine runs. They pile on against bad pitching, but in their last 11 losses they’ve scored three runs or less in eight of them. They can be stopped by good pitching, recently at least. They feast off bad pitching.
This series will be a real test of the Guardians’ pitching staff, especially Civale, Williams, and Bibee. The Guardians will be starting two rookies against the team that ranks first in scoring by a significant margin (5.84 runs per game; the Braves are second at 5.61).
The Rangers rank 1st in batting average and on-base percentage and 2nd in OPS and slugging percentage. They are 2nd in both hard hit percentage and line drive percentage, resulting in the top ranking in BABIP. They are third last in pull percentage and in the top seven in hitting to center and to the opposite field. They spray hard line drives all over the field. Fangraphs has them tied for 1st in wRC+.
As a team they are hitting .274/.801. They have six players with more than 238 at-bats who have an OPS over .800 and two more in the .775-.781 range, so there are no weak spots in their batting order. It’s an entire lineup of above average hitters.
At home they are even better with a line of .287/.856. However, they hit lefties better than right-handers (.836 versus .789) and they will face three right-handed starters in this series. With runners on base they are especially good (.296/.852).
SS Corey Seager is hitting .353/1.026 in 59 games. He missed a month in April/May but hit .368 in June and is at .395 in July with a .415 OBP. For the entire season he’s hitting .387 at home. Ezequiel Duran, a 24-year-old SS/LF/DH is hitting .352/1.028 at home. 3B Josh Jung is hitting .324/.954 in July. Adolis Garcia has 23 home runs, 75 RBI's, and is hitting .294/.971 at home.
Their pitching is not as strong as they rank 11th in ERA, but it’s still above average. They don’t strike out many, ranking 26th in K’s per 9 innings, so the Guardians will be able to put lots of balls in play. However, Fangraphs ranks the Rangers 2nd in defense and 4th in zone rating.
The Texans rank 3rd in starters’ ERA (3.71) and 25th in bullpen ERA (4.54), so the way to beat them is to be tied or ahead when their starter leaves the game. The Guardians rank 1st in bullpen ERA (3.09), so this series will be all about our starters holding down their offense for 6-7 innings and keeping it tied until both bullpens come into play and we have the advantage.
Aaron Civale starts off the second half for the Guardians. Civale has the lowest ERA of the Guardians' starters this year at 2.56. In his last two starts he’s pitched 13 innings allowing 5 hits and one run. But the Rangers will be the best offense he’s faced by far.
Marcus Semien is 4-for-5 with two doubles against Civale. The rest of the Rangers are a combined 7-for-41 (.171).
Jon Gray, a 31-year-old right-hander who spent most of his career with the Rockies, will start for the Rangers. Gray has a career mark of 66-61 with a 4.40 ERA, but that’s not bad after seven years in Colorado and 1.5 in Texas. This year he’s 6-5, 3.29 with a 1.14 WHIP. He’s on his way to having a career season. However, his home ERA is 4.27 against 2.31 on the road, so that may help the Guardians. Josh Bell is 2-for-3 against him with two walks and Josh Naylor is 2-for-7 with four walks.
After Civale the Guardians will send two rookies to face the Texans; Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. These games will give us a great opportunity to see where these young starters stand right now as they go against the best hitting team in baseball in their own ballpark. The Rangers have the highest wRC+ at home in the majors at 137. The Guardians road wRC+ is 88, so there’s a huge disparity in offenses. The poise and talent of Williams and Bibee will be put to the test. It will be interesting to see if they challenge these hitters or get intimidated and start nibbling.
The Rangers will start a couple of veteran lefties in games 2 and 3. Andrew Heaney, 32, is 5-6 with a 4.71 ERA this year. He’s 41-48 for his career. Heaney has also had problems at home with a 5.29 ERA. He’s been rocked in two of his last three starts.
Martin Perez, also 32, is 7-3 with a 4.81 ERA. He had four wins in April but only one win in his last six starts.
The Rangers’ top starter, Nathan Eovaldi, is 10-3, 2.83. He threw 20 pitches in Tuesday’s All-Star game so they are holding off on starting him until they play Tampa on Monday. I’m sure they figure their two lefties can beat the Guardians with no problem so they might as well save their best for Tampa.
There’s no question the Rangers are the better team, but they have lost 11 of 16 and they don’t hit right-handed pitching as well as lefties, so the Guardians seem to have a shot, but it depends on Civale, Williams, and Bibee keeping the scoring down while the offense scratches some runs off Heaney and the two lefties. If the Guardians can keep the score close through six innings they have a solid chance to win since their bullpen is much better.
The Guardians seem to be catching Texas at a good time as the Rangers have lost 11 of their last 16. I’m not sure what’s going on with that. The Guardians have won 13 of 20.
The Rangers are an incredible +148 in run differential, second only to Tampa at +149. The Atlanta Braves are +147 and have a record of 60-29, nine games better than the Rangers. The Orioles are 19 games over .500 despite a +48. So the Rangers have been 100 runs better than the O’s but have fewer wins. It’s astonishing that the Rangers have outscored their opponents by 148 runs but are only 13 games over .500. They’ve been very inefficient in translating runs into wins.
The Rangers have won 10 games by 10 runs or more, including an 18-3 win over Oakland. They’ve won five games by nine runs. They pile on against bad pitching, but in their last 11 losses they’ve scored three runs or less in eight of them. They can be stopped by good pitching, recently at least. They feast off bad pitching.
This series will be a real test of the Guardians’ pitching staff, especially Civale, Williams, and Bibee. The Guardians will be starting two rookies against the team that ranks first in scoring by a significant margin (5.84 runs per game; the Braves are second at 5.61).
The Rangers rank 1st in batting average and on-base percentage and 2nd in OPS and slugging percentage. They are 2nd in both hard hit percentage and line drive percentage, resulting in the top ranking in BABIP. They are third last in pull percentage and in the top seven in hitting to center and to the opposite field. They spray hard line drives all over the field. Fangraphs has them tied for 1st in wRC+.
As a team they are hitting .274/.801. They have six players with more than 238 at-bats who have an OPS over .800 and two more in the .775-.781 range, so there are no weak spots in their batting order. It’s an entire lineup of above average hitters.
At home they are even better with a line of .287/.856. However, they hit lefties better than right-handers (.836 versus .789) and they will face three right-handed starters in this series. With runners on base they are especially good (.296/.852).
SS Corey Seager is hitting .353/1.026 in 59 games. He missed a month in April/May but hit .368 in June and is at .395 in July with a .415 OBP. For the entire season he’s hitting .387 at home. Ezequiel Duran, a 24-year-old SS/LF/DH is hitting .352/1.028 at home. 3B Josh Jung is hitting .324/.954 in July. Adolis Garcia has 23 home runs, 75 RBI's, and is hitting .294/.971 at home.
Their pitching is not as strong as they rank 11th in ERA, but it’s still above average. They don’t strike out many, ranking 26th in K’s per 9 innings, so the Guardians will be able to put lots of balls in play. However, Fangraphs ranks the Rangers 2nd in defense and 4th in zone rating.
The Texans rank 3rd in starters’ ERA (3.71) and 25th in bullpen ERA (4.54), so the way to beat them is to be tied or ahead when their starter leaves the game. The Guardians rank 1st in bullpen ERA (3.09), so this series will be all about our starters holding down their offense for 6-7 innings and keeping it tied until both bullpens come into play and we have the advantage.
Aaron Civale starts off the second half for the Guardians. Civale has the lowest ERA of the Guardians' starters this year at 2.56. In his last two starts he’s pitched 13 innings allowing 5 hits and one run. But the Rangers will be the best offense he’s faced by far.
Marcus Semien is 4-for-5 with two doubles against Civale. The rest of the Rangers are a combined 7-for-41 (.171).
Jon Gray, a 31-year-old right-hander who spent most of his career with the Rockies, will start for the Rangers. Gray has a career mark of 66-61 with a 4.40 ERA, but that’s not bad after seven years in Colorado and 1.5 in Texas. This year he’s 6-5, 3.29 with a 1.14 WHIP. He’s on his way to having a career season. However, his home ERA is 4.27 against 2.31 on the road, so that may help the Guardians. Josh Bell is 2-for-3 against him with two walks and Josh Naylor is 2-for-7 with four walks.
After Civale the Guardians will send two rookies to face the Texans; Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. These games will give us a great opportunity to see where these young starters stand right now as they go against the best hitting team in baseball in their own ballpark. The Rangers have the highest wRC+ at home in the majors at 137. The Guardians road wRC+ is 88, so there’s a huge disparity in offenses. The poise and talent of Williams and Bibee will be put to the test. It will be interesting to see if they challenge these hitters or get intimidated and start nibbling.
The Rangers will start a couple of veteran lefties in games 2 and 3. Andrew Heaney, 32, is 5-6 with a 4.71 ERA this year. He’s 41-48 for his career. Heaney has also had problems at home with a 5.29 ERA. He’s been rocked in two of his last three starts.
Martin Perez, also 32, is 7-3 with a 4.81 ERA. He had four wins in April but only one win in his last six starts.
The Rangers’ top starter, Nathan Eovaldi, is 10-3, 2.83. He threw 20 pitches in Tuesday’s All-Star game so they are holding off on starting him until they play Tampa on Monday. I’m sure they figure their two lefties can beat the Guardians with no problem so they might as well save their best for Tampa.
There’s no question the Rangers are the better team, but they have lost 11 of 16 and they don’t hit right-handed pitching as well as lefties, so the Guardians seem to have a shot, but it depends on Civale, Williams, and Bibee keeping the scoring down while the offense scratches some runs off Heaney and the two lefties. If the Guardians can keep the score close through six innings they have a solid chance to win since their bullpen is much better.
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