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After splitting with the Blue Jays and outscoring the Rays 22-17 (but winning just once) the Guardians play a two-game series in Cincinnati after a travel day. Jose Ramirez is over his suspension and back in the lineup after a three-day hiatus. This is the first time these teams have faced each other and they only play each other four times this year. Some Battle of Ohio.
The Reds are 62-58, but have been struggling recently. After going into the break at 50-41 they are 12-17 in the last month and more recently have lost 9 of 12. However, they are 17-10 against the American League and are 3.5 games out of first and 0.5 games out of a wild card spot, so they are right in the hunt. They are 29-31 at home.
In the 29 games since the All-Star break the Reds rank 17th in runs per game (4.4) and 17th in team ERA. The starters have been fine (13th in ERA), but the bullpen is just 23rd since the break. They rank 9th in homers since the break and they have seven players with 10-18 home runs. Like the Rays, they have a lot of guys who can go deep off a bad pitch, but nobody who is going to hit 30.
The Guardians are first by a wide margin in starter ERA since the break (2.74) but 27th in bullpen ERA (5.48). With any kind of decent relief pitching in the last month the Guardians would be right on the Twins’ heels instead of 4.5 games out.
Tuesday’s game features Logan Allen against a 25-year-old rookie right-hander, Gordon Ashcraft. Overall Ashcraft is 6-7, 4.95 ERA, but it has been a tale of two seasons for him. In his first 14 starts his ERA was 7.17. In his last eight starts it’s 1.94. Since June 30 he has been lights out. He has allowed more than two earned runs in just one of his last eight starts, and that was three runs in eight innings.
Logan Allen is 5-5, 3.55 ERA, and has allowed three runs in his last two starts covering 11 innings. In his first seven starts Allen had a glittering 2.72 ERA. But in June and July his ERA was 4.65 before he settled down in his last two starts.
Wednesday it will be Noel Syndergaard against another rookie, LHP Andrew Abbott, 7-3, 2.95. Abbott has been their version of Tanner Bibee. In 13 starts he has allowed 58 hits in 76 innings with opponents hitting just .210 off him. He dominates left-handed hitters (.182/.423) and with runners on base his OBA is .175. However, in his last three starts he has allowed 12 runs in 14.2 innings.
I’m wondering if they worked him too hard in their playoff push. Abbott has thrown over 100 pitches in 7 of his 13 starts. He had two starts in a row in late July where he threw 106 and 113 pitches. In his next three starts he gave up 12 runs. The Guardians, OTOH, have been more careful with the pitch counts of Allen, Bibee, and Williams.
Will Benson is having a great year for the Reds with a line of .283/.902. However, 88% of his plate appearances have been against RHP’s so I don’t think he’ll start against Allen. He’s hitting .095 against lefties and .307/.970 against righties.
Benson has some odd splits. He’s hitting .207 at home and .343 on the road. He’s hitting .321 with runners on base but .176 with runners in scoring position. That tells me he’s awesome with a runner on 1st but pretty bad with runners on 2nd or 3rd. Maybe he’s been pulling a lot of ground balls through the hole with the first baseman holding the runner.
SS Matt McLain, a 24-year-old rookie, is hitting .297/.866. 1B Spencer Steer, 25 and in his second season, is hitting .272/.823. He’s an odd duck - a 5’11” right-handed first baseman. The Reds remind me of the Guardians last year - going well with a lot of young guys.
Elly de la Cruz, their 21-year-old sensation, has cooled off after a hot start. Elly came up on June 6 and hit .307/.881 in June, .238/.686 in July, and .239/.778 so far in August. He’s a 6’5”, 200-pound switch-hitting 3rd baseman. He’s much better hitting left-handed; 9 of his 10 home runs have come from that side. Syndergaard needs to be careful with him and Will Benson.
Syndergaard has had two good starts and one bad since joining the Guardians. His two good starts were against Houston (5.1 innings, 1 run) and Toronto (5.2 innings, 1 run). The White Sox hit four home runs off him accounting for all five runs they scored. So far for Noah it’s all about avoiding the long ball as Houston and Toronto didn’t hit any.
The Reds hit a lot of home runs, ranking 9th in homers since the break. So the key for Allen and Syndergaard will be to keep them in the park. The Reds have hit 80 home runs at home against 59 on the road. Their ballpark is conducive to the long ball.
Offensively the Guardians will be facing two very good young starters. Ashcraft is pitching as well as anybody in baseball and Abbott has been excellent until his last three starts, plus he’s left-handed. Runs will be tough to come by, but the Guardians scored 22 in three games against Tampa so maybe they can keep it going.
The Reds are 62-58, but have been struggling recently. After going into the break at 50-41 they are 12-17 in the last month and more recently have lost 9 of 12. However, they are 17-10 against the American League and are 3.5 games out of first and 0.5 games out of a wild card spot, so they are right in the hunt. They are 29-31 at home.
In the 29 games since the All-Star break the Reds rank 17th in runs per game (4.4) and 17th in team ERA. The starters have been fine (13th in ERA), but the bullpen is just 23rd since the break. They rank 9th in homers since the break and they have seven players with 10-18 home runs. Like the Rays, they have a lot of guys who can go deep off a bad pitch, but nobody who is going to hit 30.
The Guardians are first by a wide margin in starter ERA since the break (2.74) but 27th in bullpen ERA (5.48). With any kind of decent relief pitching in the last month the Guardians would be right on the Twins’ heels instead of 4.5 games out.
Tuesday’s game features Logan Allen against a 25-year-old rookie right-hander, Gordon Ashcraft. Overall Ashcraft is 6-7, 4.95 ERA, but it has been a tale of two seasons for him. In his first 14 starts his ERA was 7.17. In his last eight starts it’s 1.94. Since June 30 he has been lights out. He has allowed more than two earned runs in just one of his last eight starts, and that was three runs in eight innings.
Logan Allen is 5-5, 3.55 ERA, and has allowed three runs in his last two starts covering 11 innings. In his first seven starts Allen had a glittering 2.72 ERA. But in June and July his ERA was 4.65 before he settled down in his last two starts.
Wednesday it will be Noel Syndergaard against another rookie, LHP Andrew Abbott, 7-3, 2.95. Abbott has been their version of Tanner Bibee. In 13 starts he has allowed 58 hits in 76 innings with opponents hitting just .210 off him. He dominates left-handed hitters (.182/.423) and with runners on base his OBA is .175. However, in his last three starts he has allowed 12 runs in 14.2 innings.
I’m wondering if they worked him too hard in their playoff push. Abbott has thrown over 100 pitches in 7 of his 13 starts. He had two starts in a row in late July where he threw 106 and 113 pitches. In his next three starts he gave up 12 runs. The Guardians, OTOH, have been more careful with the pitch counts of Allen, Bibee, and Williams.
Will Benson is having a great year for the Reds with a line of .283/.902. However, 88% of his plate appearances have been against RHP’s so I don’t think he’ll start against Allen. He’s hitting .095 against lefties and .307/.970 against righties.
Benson has some odd splits. He’s hitting .207 at home and .343 on the road. He’s hitting .321 with runners on base but .176 with runners in scoring position. That tells me he’s awesome with a runner on 1st but pretty bad with runners on 2nd or 3rd. Maybe he’s been pulling a lot of ground balls through the hole with the first baseman holding the runner.
SS Matt McLain, a 24-year-old rookie, is hitting .297/.866. 1B Spencer Steer, 25 and in his second season, is hitting .272/.823. He’s an odd duck - a 5’11” right-handed first baseman. The Reds remind me of the Guardians last year - going well with a lot of young guys.
Elly de la Cruz, their 21-year-old sensation, has cooled off after a hot start. Elly came up on June 6 and hit .307/.881 in June, .238/.686 in July, and .239/.778 so far in August. He’s a 6’5”, 200-pound switch-hitting 3rd baseman. He’s much better hitting left-handed; 9 of his 10 home runs have come from that side. Syndergaard needs to be careful with him and Will Benson.
Syndergaard has had two good starts and one bad since joining the Guardians. His two good starts were against Houston (5.1 innings, 1 run) and Toronto (5.2 innings, 1 run). The White Sox hit four home runs off him accounting for all five runs they scored. So far for Noah it’s all about avoiding the long ball as Houston and Toronto didn’t hit any.
The Reds hit a lot of home runs, ranking 9th in homers since the break. So the key for Allen and Syndergaard will be to keep them in the park. The Reds have hit 80 home runs at home against 59 on the road. Their ballpark is conducive to the long ball.
Offensively the Guardians will be facing two very good young starters. Ashcraft is pitching as well as anybody in baseball and Abbott has been excellent until his last three starts, plus he’s left-handed. Runs will be tough to come by, but the Guardians scored 22 in three games against Tampa so maybe they can keep it going.
