2024 NBA Draft

[I'mWithDan]

I was speaking directly to the views of the draft leading up to it.

I would take the 2014 draft over 2013. Giannis being a once in a lifetime prospect transformation still doesn’t bring it up as high as Embiid’s group.

I'll post some stuff later this week but I think it is actually a great draft to be selecting at #20.

Is there a generational guy at the top? Maybe not. Is there a large pool of guys that can really help a contender? Absolutely.

This seems like a draft where the Cavs could also drop back a few spots with a team who has excess draft capital....i.e. a team like the Knicks. Take #25 and #38 for #20. Ditto for the Wolves, who own #27 and #37.

There are some interesting trade combos where we drop back and pick up an early second......where there is a pool of guys the draft model really likes as well.

 

[T-Roy]

I'll post some stuff later this week but I think it is actually a great draft to be selecting at #20.

I see why you're saying we are in a great spot. Would like a guy like Da Silva or Tyler Smith, most mock drafts at least one of them fall to us. There seems to be a lot of that style in that area. BIG PF/C that can SHOOT. Interested in this Salaun kid. Could he be the hidden gem? Only 18 years old.

 

[I'mWithDan]

People keep mentioning Da Silva but my draft model really doesn't like him.

Final numbers are below.........I keep staring at two names: DaRon Holmes and Devin Carter.

Everything about their data screams they will be good NBA players....they both just have so few statistical weaknesses when looking at possession based production. In the world where we might trade Garland, I'm intrigued at just how good Carter's draft profile is......and how he's currently in that middle 1st range.

"Mock" column is the current consensus number rookiescale spits out, so subject to change. But you want guys above the PDIFF median (.79-.80) for success outcomes......and you see how many guys are sub 20 mock draft slot consensus, that are above that median line (18) and then a handful who are in the teens that could be maneuvered for (4-5).

So just a lot of middle-late 1st draft talent this year, which is great. The other 3 columns shown are PPFGA (scoring efficiency), 3P/PTS (good indicator of gravity) and HUSTLE (combination of steals, OREB, blocks, which has always been a great single stat that is sticky for prospects).

 

[I'mWithDan]

And then I know there are new people who are probably confused......but this is a model that has had a ton of success in sorting high / low success pools of players. PDIFF is comparing the totality of their production, to that of their historical positional peers.

Going back in the entire possession era, it has been really successful indicating which players have a better chance for NBA success. So for guys who had possession data available, here are the top 10 VORP players from each of the last 3 drafts.

Does it bat 1.000? I mean no....and it shouldn't. But only 4 of the best 30 players, from the last 3 drafts, came out of the below median pool and one of them (Amen) was using G-League data......which is still a little imperfect.

Cam looks like the only real underperformer to be breaking through. Just food for thought as we dig through guys. It isn't someone below that median line just can't make it......but the possession era data just says their odds are severely diminished in comparison to anyone above it.

 

[MattyIce8]

People keep mentioning Da Silva but my draft model really doesn't like him.

Final numbers are below.........I keep staring at two names: DaRon Holmes and Devin Carter.

Everything about their data screams they will be good NBA players....they both just have so few statistical weaknesses when looking at possession based production. In the world where we might trade Garland, I'm intrigued at just how good Carter's draft profile is......and how he's currently in that middle 1st range.

"Mock" column is the current consensus number rookiescale spits out, so subject to change. But you want guys above the PDIFF median (.79-.80) for success outcomes......and you see how many guys are sub 20 mock draft slot consensus, that are above that median line (18) and then a handful who are in the teens that could be maneuvered for (4-5).

So just a lot of middle-late 1st draft talent this year, which is great. The other 3 columns shown are PPFGA (scoring efficiency), 3P/PTS (good indicator of gravity) and HUSTLE (combination of steals, OREB, blocks, which has always been a great single stat that is sticky for prospects).

I would love to trade back and grab a second rounder to take Scheierman.

 

[stick]

People keep mentioning Da Silva but my draft model really doesn't like him.

Final numbers are below.........I keep staring at two names: DaRon Holmes and Devin Carter.

Everything about their data screams they will be good NBA players....they both just have so few statistical weaknesses when looking at possession based production. In the world where we might trade Garland, I'm intrigued at just how good Carter's draft profile is......and how he's currently in that middle 1st range.

"Mock" column is the current consensus number rookiescale spits out, so subject to change. But you want guys above the PDIFF median (.79-.80) for success outcomes......and you see how many guys are sub 20 mock draft slot consensus, that are above that median line (18) and then a handful who are in the teens that could be maneuvered for (4-5).

So just a lot of middle-late 1st draft talent this year, which is great. The other 3 columns shown are PPFGA (scoring efficiency), 3P/PTS (good indicator of gravity) and HUSTLE (combination of steals, OREB, blocks, which has always been a great single stat that is sticky for prospects).

How rare is it for a SF/PF to have the HUSTLE number Ryan Dunn has?
(his offense still scares me, but damn his defensive baseline is tantalizing)

 

[Dr No]

And then I know there are new people who are probably confused......but this is a model that has had a ton of success in sorting high / low success pools of players. PDIFF is comparing the totality of their production, to that of their historical positional peers.

Going back in the entire possession era, it has been really successful indicating which players have a better chance for NBA success. So for guys who had possession data available, here are the top 10 VORP players from each of the last 3 drafts.

Does it bat 1.000? I mean no....and it shouldn't. But only 4 of the best 30 players, from the last 3 drafts, came out of the below median pool and one of them (Amen) was using G-League data......which is still a little imperfect.

Cam looks like the only real underperformer to be breaking through. Just food for thought as we dig through guys. It isn't someone below that median line just can't make it......but the possession era data just says their odds are severely diminished in comparison to anyone above it.

geez, the Thunder have rocked these last 3 drafts. At least 1 in the top 5 each year including #'s 1 & 2 for 2022. Its interesting that only Chet really shined in the model.

 

[I'mWithDan]

How rare is it for a SF/PF to have the HUSTLE number Ryan Dunn has?
(his offense still scares me, but damn his defensive baseline is tantalizing)

It’s pretty rare. Right outside the top 10 all time for wings.

Also just sorting by hustle on the wing, by my count 12 of the 15 guys were rotational NBA players.

 

[I'mWithDan]

geez, the Thunder have rocked these last 3 drafts. At least 1 in the top 5 each year including #'s 1 & 2 for 2022. Its interesting that only Chet really shined in the model.

Giddy was playing as a teen against pro comp, so I would say his numbers were exceptional. It was why we had the Sengun discussion in 2021......just how his film didn't get you super excited, as he wasn't a great athlete but he was producing at such an elite level, against pro competition, that you just had to kind of trust the data.

I think the best way to think about PDIFF is the degree to which a player can realistically improve. PDIFF seems to indicate that if you can't produce on a median or better level in college, it is just really unlikely you can do the same in the NBA. Even less likely you can develop in to a star or consequential player.

Will some guys be outliers? Sure......Will every guy at the top of the scale succeed? No. But a much, much higher percentage of guys in the top half will succeed. And probably more importantly, pretty much every STAR player in the possession era has come from that above median group. The only exception being Devin Booker in 2015.

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

How rare is it for a SF/PF to have the HUSTLE number Ryan Dunn has?
(his offense still scares me, but damn his defensive baseline is tantalizing)

Though he's slightly older than other players, I for one like the fact that he's a former walk-on. He was willing to walk-on at Virginia when he still had offers from Maryland, Clemson, South Carolina, Marquette, Pitt, TCU, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, etc. because he felt it was the best place for him to grow. That tells me a lot about the type of work ethic, character, and mindset that he has. Sounds like a guy not afraid to compete with anyone, especially when we're talking about walking on at a program like Virginia.

Even if the offense never comes around, he has size, length, and athleticism at 3/4 that is currently not on the Cavs roster.

He clearly has the right mindset when you read about him and his future in the league:

UVA's Dunn, former walk-on, to enter NBA draft

Ryan Dunn, who initially committed to Virginia as a walk-on, is entering the NBA draft as a potential first-round pick.

www.espn.com

Dunn has one of the more unique stories in this draft class, initially committing to Virginia as a walk-on after a late-blooming trajectory. He grew seven inches starting as a high school sophomore, sprouting up to 6-foot-8.

He played only 13 minutes per game as a freshman but entered his sophomore season projected as a potential lottery pick due to his defensive versatility and physical attributes -- he has a 7-foot-2 wingspan and outstanding athletic ability.

Kind of sounds like a kid who hit a growth spurt and his body could still be in the process of catching up. One would have to think given how much he's improved over the past two years that he still has a much higher level he hasn't scratched yet.

Dunn's outside shooting did not progress as much as some hoped this season -- he hit just 7 of his 35 3-pointers and 53% of his free throw attempts, something he says he knows will be a major focal point moving forward during the pre-draft process.

"Confidence-wise, it wasn't always there for me just letting it go from beyond the arc," Dunn said. "I'm going to have a whole different mindset with that. A lot of my role was being a rebounder and making plays at the rim, I did that the best I could to try and help my team win."

Dunn says he'll be spending the pre-draft process in California working on his shooting and preparing for NBA combine workouts, where he hopes to show new facets to his offensive repertoire.

"I'm trying to watch as much of the NBA as I can right now, especially players with my body type and frame," Dunn said. "Herb Jones, OG Anunoby. I want to see how they perform in the playoffs where it's go time."

I'd say it's good that he already sees OG and Herb as the guys he needs to model his game after and doesn't have some type of unrealistic expectations of his potential role or who he can be in the NBA. I think that's half the battle for some of these guys, but it sounds like he has a great work ethic, mindset, and understanding of what he has to do to stick in the league.


Pretty cool story from Tony Bennett about Dunn's recruitment:


Sounds like the type of guy I want on my team.

 

[cliffdawg]

I’m still on the Ware bandwagon, but with that said they’re saying this going to be the weakest draft since the Bennet draft, People are saying picks from 15-30 could easily outperform the first 15 picks.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I’m still on the Ware bandwagon, but with that said they’re saying this going to be the weakest draft since the Bennet draft, People are saying picks from 15-30 could easily outperform the first 15 picks.

Who is saying this? I honestly haven't followed much of the top of the draft......but I would assume this sentiment revolves around this draft not having a clearly identifiable #1 player?

With the crop of European players, I might chalk that up as the traditional NBA mock draft apparatus just not being great at scouting foreign prospects.

 

[catfish]

What is wrong with this Tyler Smith character?

 

[Cassity14]

Haliburton is just such a phony.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Is it possible Halliburton is injured and so not performing at his normal level?