2024 Season | Series #10 | Guardians @ Astros | Apri 30 - May 2, 2024

[Otsego Mar]

To each their own, I guess.

 

[Tondo]

He's also a 23yo rookie.

Can't believe I have to stress this to someone who works in
baseball and who oh so wants Rocchio to succeed but keeps shitting on him on every turn.

There are 10 MLB SS who are within his age bracket. Rocchio ranks 6th in xwOBA, right behind Mason Wynn and ahead of Zach Neto.

He has the second lowest K% and best BB/K ratio of those youngsters. 2nd lowest BABIP

He's tied for 7th (with Wynn) on D rating

Here are the other 9 players on this list:
G. Henderson
Volpe
C. Rafaela
Elly de la Cruz
CJ Abrams
M. Wynn
Z. Neto
D. Hernaiz
E. Tovar

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I'm pulling for all the Guardians to be successful, including Rocchio. The last three games he's had three hits and four walks while stealing two bases. Obviously that's not sustainable but he seems more patient and relaxed at the plate; even Rick and Matt commented on it.

He's hitting 9th so if he can keep working some walks and chipping in some singles and stolen bases he might be OK. The key is getting on base with Kwan, Gimmy, and Jose coming up.

I get that slugging percentage is the most important thing and Arias will always have the edge over Rocchio in slugging percentage and defense. So I'm not arguing for one or the other. I just want to see if Rocchio can continue to get on base consistently via the walk or hit. He's 4-for-6 in stolen bases; not impressive but he hasn't been on base that much and they don't want him to get thrown out with the top of the order coming up. We might see him running more, however.

His big problem is he's 3-for-23 against LHP's. Against right-handers his line is .246/.689 with an OBP of .361, which is very good for a #9 hitter. Only two Guardians are higher; Fry at .453 and Kwan at .403.

If they only played Rocchio against RHP's his offensive numbers would look pretty good for a shortstop, especially that .361 OBP.

 

[thestatman]

He's also a 23yo rookie.

Can't believe I have to stress this to someone who works in
baseball and who oh so wants Rocchio to succeed but keeps shitting on him on every turn.

There are 10 MLB SS who are within his age bracket. Rocchio ranks 6th in xwOBA, right behind Mason Wynn and ahead of Zach Neto.

He has the second lowest K% and best BB/K ratio of those youngsters. 2nd lowest BABIP

He's tied for 7th (with Wynn) on D rating

Here are the other 9 players on this list:
G. Henderson
Volpe
C. Rafaela
Elly de la Cruz
CJ Abrams
M. Wynn
Z. Neto
D. Hernaiz
E. Tovar

I'm rooting really hard for Rocchio to get on a roll. I don't want to see Arias anymore. Saw enough of him last season.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Age and inexperience didn't matter last year when discussing the previous SS who wasn't producing enough at age 23.

Now it matters though.

Minor league pedigree is only going to last so long when the MLB production isn't up to snuff. The league is littered with failed former top prospects. We can keep hoping stuff will change, but stuff hasn't really changed to this point.

We can glob on to any stat that makes us feel good, but the overall profile and production is all that matters in the end and it's not there right now. Just like it was with Arias last year. And he had outproduced Rocchio at this same stage.

I want 1 of these kids to do something meaningful for a decent length of time that makes you feel comfortable that a good, impactful MLB player is in there. We desperately need that. Until I see that though, the skepticism will remain.

 

[jmilo]

He's also a 23yo rookie.

Can't believe I have to stress this to someone who works in
baseball and who oh so wants Rocchio to succeed but keeps shitting on him on every turn.

There are 10 MLB SS who are within his age bracket. Rocchio ranks 6th in xwOBA, right behind Mason Wynn and ahead of Zach Neto.

He has the second lowest K% and best BB/K ratio of those youngsters. 2nd lowest BABIP

He's tied for 7th (with Wynn) on D rating

Here are the other 9 players on this list:
G. Henderson
Volpe
C. Rafaela
Elly de la Cruz
CJ Abrams
M. Wynn
Z. Neto
D. Hernaiz
E. Tovar

I don't think anyone wants Rocchio to fail. But, let me get this straight.

First you filtered out all of the more established SS's, to get a sample only of those as young as him.

Then, among that narrow group, your optimism is that someone with no power is also in the bottom half for expected on base percentage and defensive rating?

That doesn't seem good.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Speaking of Fry, he's off to a tremendous start at .327/.923. Those are not empty numbers, either. He's hitting .350/1.064 with runners on, .353/1.047 with RISP, and .375/1.420 with RISP and two out. Crazy numbers.

Coincidentally, he has the lowest outside-the-zone swing rate of any Guardians player at 19.3%. Laureano and Kwan are around 25%, and Bo 27%. I wonder if not swinging at bad pitches helps your productivity. I guess we'll just keep an eye on this.

Fry's on-base percentage is .453. He leads the team in walk percentage. Somebody should do a study to see if there's a connection between not chasing bad pitches and drawing walks.

 

[Tondo]

I don't think anyone wants Rocchio to fail. But, let me get this straight.

First you filtered out all of the more established SS's, to get a sample only of those as young as him.

Then, among that narrow group, your optimism is that someone with no power is also in the bottom half for expected on base percentage and defensive rating?

That doesn't seem good.

That "narrow group" is a who's who of top prospects.

If you guys did this with Gimenez in 2021, and he had a lot more PAs at that point, you would have shot him to the moon.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I don't think anyone wants Rocchio to fail. But, let me get this straight.

First you filtered out all of the more established SS's, to get a sample only of those as young as him.

Then, among that narrow group, your optimism is that someone with no power is also in the bottom half for expected on base percentage and defensive rating?

That doesn't seem good.

I don't.

He thinks I want him to for some reason though. I just have never seen the "safe prospect" others have seen and for some reason that is an issue.

 

[Criznit]

FWIW
Rocchio's 2024 bWAR: 0.5 and fWAR 0.1

 

[Tondo]

Age and inexperience didn't matter last year when discussing the previous SS who wasn't producing enough at age 23.

Now it matters though.

Minor league pedigree is only going to last so long when the MLB production isn't up to snuff. The league is littered with failed former top prospects. We can keep hoping stuff will change, but stuff hasn't really changed to this point.

We can glob on to any stat that makes us feel good, but the overall profile and production is all that matters in the end and it's not there right now. Just like it was with Arias last year. And he had outproduced Rocchio at this same stage.

I want 1 of these kids to do something meaningful for a decent length of time that makes you feel comfortable that a good, impactful MLB player is in there. We desperately need that. Until I see that though, the skepticism will remain.

Your dude got his crack and shat his pants. After the Amed trade he probably walked as many times as Rocchio this week.

Working counts, knowing the zone and getting on base is a good base skill to have. It's not like Rocchio can't hit at all. A 300ish xwOBA is solid for a rookie.

If he can perform to a 90 wRc+ and solidify his defense, that's a perfectly fine rookie season.

Iirc, Arias had a 70ish wRc+ (or worse) after the trade when he got 250ish steady PA, which you were clamoring for all year. His OBP was below 275, he was an outs machine worse than Amed.

 

[BimboColesHair]

FWIW it's worth...
Rocchio's 2024 bWAR: 0.5 and fWAR 0.1

bWARs defensive algo is heavily outdated and bonuses specific positions to an obnoxious set level regardless of how the players or their peers at that position are actually playing, C, SS, and CF specifically are given huge WAR boosts. It's how Myles Straw was still a 1 bWAR player last year even though the offense was awful and the defense wasn't as good as it was the year prior. He was mostly a 1 WAR player because he stood in CF for a ton of innings.

fWAR doesn't tier set amount for positions and compares players to what the rest of the players at that position are doing defensively year-to-year.

So not surprised to see a wide gap.

It's like their pitcher WAR algos too. Which stat do you prefer, ERA+ or FIP? All built on different things.

 

[jmilo]

That "narrow group" is a who's who of top prospects.

If you guys did this with Gimenez in 2021, and he had a lot more PAs at that point, you would have shot him to the moon.

I think the response you're looking for is "yes."

I want a good shortstop. I want a plus defender. I want a plus bat. I think we've all seen that Rocchio doesn't have the tools to ever be a plus defender, and we're hopeful that he can get to an average bat.

For me, that's not good enough

 

[CATS44]

I dont think that Arias has the defensive advantage at short. He has a defensive advantage, because he can play seven positions adequately.

O could have won money if I had bet I'd get a negative Rocchio post in return...and that would say basically that only some stats count.

If UZR is the only stat that counts, and is the final answer, Gimenez is a below average 2B this year.

I didn't bring up Arias, but since his name came up, he has been pretty bad in his few times at short this year. But since its such a SSS, lets compare both in their time in Cleveland..

In 375 innings, Rocchio has been worth 5 DRS.

In 464 innings, Arias has been worth -2 DRS.

But according to those who are floating their boats in a different river, that doesn't count.

So...

Rocchio leads Arias in both UZR and UZR150.

*******

As for he who insists that Arias has been treated poorly by ignoring his youth last year. It was never about youth. It was about a two year track record of non production.

Arias was applauded for his few hot streaks last year, ignoring his 79 wRC+. Meanwhile, Rocchio, now the same age, is denigrated for his 84 wRC+.

 

[Lee]

Feeling much better this morning, after pulling that out.

Doesn’t make up for the 2 choke jobs before that.