sportscoach
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Give me a cap and I'll give you a floor...
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23 MLB Offseason News!
- Thread starter sportscoach
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Give me a cap and I'll give you a floor...
sportscoach
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I'll say it now, the Twins made a bad move...
Arraez had three years of control left, was a 4+ WAR player in 22 plus is a batting title waiting to happen...
Lopez is good, but not worth Arraez even with adding prospects... (BTV values say the opposite of me though haha)
Arraez to me is a guy you build around... especially with Correa there.
mopete12
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I’m of the opposite opinion because of the Twins roster. They had too many infielders and desperately need solid pitching, and while Arraez is obviously a great contact hitter, he has no power and is a poor defender, so he has limited upside. fWar was 3.2 last year, which was dragged down by his defense.
Lopez is a solid starter, plus two prospects with talent seems like a very solid trade.
sportscoach
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It's one of those, my gut says, trading Arraez will hurt them in general... who else do they have that can actually hit at a good average?
Kepler and Buxton cannot stay healthy... Correa is back and Miranda I think is a good hitter, but did they really have the actual hitting depth to trade a guy with a batting title for a SP with less team control?
CDAV45
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The idea that the Twins lost this trade is nonsensical and absolutely absurd. It's wishful thinking at best. They gained a reliable #2 or #3 SP that threw 180 innings last season to a 3.75 ERA/3.71 FIP pitching in the tuff NL East. The Twins just got a lot better and Arraez is easily replace by Polanco who gives them a lot more power at 2B and is better defensively. We don't even need to talk about the prospects.
I wouldn't be surprised to see them deal Kepler next. They already added Vasquez, Paddack and resigned Correa which made trading Arraez possible. If they stay healthy they will be formidable.
Miami may have been snookered .... They announced they are moving Chis to CF and Arraez will be 2nd. Yet, on the Twins message boards, they are wondering if Arraez had knee issues (degenerative) that was moving him from OF and 3rd initially to 1B/DH. Not good when your fans hometown fans are wondering that. From Miami's perspective, they way overpaid if he cannot play 2nd ...
On the first level IMO this trade simply rearranges deck chairs for both teams. It doesnt move the needle much.
Minnesota needed two pitchers, and got one...but they lose a wonderful leadoff hitter, who drives pitchers nuts, and drives up pitch counts. Look at the difference Kwan made to our offense when Tito put him in the leadoff spot. The Twins traded away their Kwan. I'm not sure that can be quantified accurately. Kwans 4.4 fWAR is more valuable in the leadoff spot than batting seventh.
The Marlins offense needs everything, esp contact. They get some of that with Arreaz, but they have to do a major reshuffle of their defense to fit him in. The key to the deal is twofold. Can Arreaz play an adequate 2B? His track record is mixed at second, but probably adequate. Can Chisholm, an adequate 2B, play a solid CF? The Marlins desperately need a CF, and if Chisholm can do so, its a roster upgrade. If he can play a plus centerfield, its a big upgrade.
If those two questions are answered positively and if one of the young Marlins pitchers can replicate Perez, this is a pretty fair upgrade of the Marlins roster, but thats a lot of its.
No doubt, Perez upgrades the Twins pitching, but the question for them is if somebody can replace Arreaz' offensive value at the top of the order. If not, its a wash.
On the second level the Twins recieved two teen aged prospects, one highly thought of, but both a long way from MLB. Neither are gonna help Minnesota any time soon, if at all. But they do upgrade their farm system fairly significantly.
The Marlins paid a high price for a bunch of ifs.
Fangraphs really upgraded the Twins overall run prevention for 2023 with the addition of one pitcher to the point that they are ranked higher than the Guardians. I dont buy it. Even when the Twins won the division in 2019 and 2020 they didn't have better run prevention than us.
Fangraphs also ranks our pitching staff third in the division. I dont buy that, either.
Minnesota needed two pitchers, and got one...but they lose a wonderful leadoff hitter, who drives pitchers nuts, and drives up pitch counts. Look at the difference Kwan made to our offense when Tito put him in the leadoff spot. The Twins traded away their Kwan. I'm not sure that can be quantified accurately. Kwans 4.4 fWAR is more valuable in the leadoff spot than batting seventh.
The Marlins offense needs everything, esp contact. They get some of that with Arreaz, but they have to do a major reshuffle of their defense to fit him in. The key to the deal is twofold. Can Arreaz play an adequate 2B? His track record is mixed at second, but probably adequate. Can Chisholm, an adequate 2B, play a solid CF? The Marlins desperately need a CF, and if Chisholm can do so, its a roster upgrade. If he can play a plus centerfield, its a big upgrade.
If those two questions are answered positively and if one of the young Marlins pitchers can replicate Perez, this is a pretty fair upgrade of the Marlins roster, but thats a lot of its.
No doubt, Perez upgrades the Twins pitching, but the question for them is if somebody can replace Arreaz' offensive value at the top of the order. If not, its a wash.
On the second level the Twins recieved two teen aged prospects, one highly thought of, but both a long way from MLB. Neither are gonna help Minnesota any time soon, if at all. But they do upgrade their farm system fairly significantly.
The Marlins paid a high price for a bunch of ifs.
Fangraphs really upgraded the Twins overall run prevention for 2023 with the addition of one pitcher to the point that they are ranked higher than the Guardians. I dont buy it. Even when the Twins won the division in 2019 and 2020 they didn't have better run prevention than us.
Fangraphs also ranks our pitching staff third in the division. I dont buy that, either.
CDAV45
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Let's assume everyone stays healthy for now, where would you rank our pitching staff? I'd rank our starters 2nd behind Chicago's and our BP is the best in the division IMO. Especially with the unfortunate news for Hendricks. Let me say that I don't expect this to last long as Cleveland's ridiculous pitching prospects start to surface. Cleveland has so much more quality SP depth than Chicago and we know how big of an advantage that is over the course of a season.
With the acquisition of Lopez, the Twins improved in 2 areas. SP and defense as Arraez was a liability and I'm surprised Ng made this deal. I think Freeman would have been a better fit for them, but that's just my $.02.
macbdog
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I'm confused, you realize that Salas was traded with Lopez, nor for Lopez? This would be like the Gs having to add Chourio to unload Plesac.
CDAV45
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Yeah I realize that after I posted, but thanks for pointing it out. I still think we need to trade some SP.
sportscoach
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Who would we be trading for though? Most of our options are honestly gone...
CDAV45
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With the current SP depth I'd be looking to pile on the upper level SP depth with high upside arms. Bieber is a FA after the 24 season while all of Quantrill, Civale and Plesac are due to hit FA in 2026. We have all of Morris, Pilkington, Curry and Gaddis who have already been called up. We have Battenfield who underwent a major mechanical change that improved everything but his command. I expect him and Allen to have very good bounceback seasons in 23. After that we have 3 of the most talented SP prospects in all of baseball that could see ML innings this season. We have Cantillo and Hankins coming back from injuries who will probably be ready by 24. We have Campbell who is likely to fly through the system much in the same way that Allen has. Not all of them will have successful 23 campaigns so if you can add to the depth then all the merrier.
I'd also look to add bats. You like Vargas and a hitter like him(Yepez) would be good additions because there isn't much organizational depth there. If you could get me someone like Outman to play CF I'd be all for that. Either of the Baltimore 2B(Norby and Westburg) would/could be good additions. I prefer Norby as he can play some OF too. This organization has a very deep farm system with the lion's share of value being in the upper levels. I'd continue to load up on talent, especially SP, CF, 1B and even 2B if possible.