I dont know how the changes will alter the game, although I have my expectations.
It used to be that the two leagues played very dissimilar games. The AL, dominated by the powerball of the Yankees, played for big innings...as in Earl Weavers three run home runs. The NL played speedball...put the ball in play and run like hell...moves runners over, bunt, steal. We watched that last year in Cleveland.
Part of the difference was because there were a lot more good, black baseball players in the NL with an emphasis on athleticism and speed. The illustration of the difference was the 1964 World Series, when the Cardinals, led by Lou Brock, Bill White, and Bob Gibson, beat the Yankees of Mantle, Maris, and Elston Howard.
That year, the Yanks hit 162 HRs, stole 54 bases, 68 sac bunts. The Cards hit 109 HRs, stole 73 bases, 94 sac bunts.
Totally different style of baseball.
How much towards the old NL style will the new rules sway today's game?
Because of the emphasis on power that has come to the game, analytics have discounted the value of bunts and stolen bases. They also discounted the value of getting on base, especially via high batting averages. And, maybe most importantly, owners were willing to pay more for power, even if it came with strike outs and poor defense. Why learn to play baseball, when playing slow pitch softball in a big league uniform paid more? Swing big or go home.
Those big swings also came with an increase in launch angles. It easier to pitch to an uppercut swing than to one that goes thru the zone on a more level plane. Couple this with the more advanced teaching of pitching today, with such a emphasis on increased velocity and spin, and we've come to this point of lowered scoring and longer games. But with the increase in velocity and spin rates has come a need for a longer recovery time between pitches...and to something I'm gonna watch closely.
The pitch clock is gonna speed up the game. But will it mean that, in particular, starting pitchers will have to pace themselves in order to get thru even five innings? Or will it mean more pitchers blow out their arms without as much recovery time between pitches?
In 2014, after several frustrating years, Cookie was put in the pen and told by Callaway to throw as hard as he could for as long as he could. Cookie carried that instruction into his starts when he first returned to the rotation. It worked spectacularly. From 2014-2018 Cookie was the fourth best SP in the AL with 21 fWAR...behind only Kluber, Sale, and Verlander.
Another thing I'm gonna watch closely is base stealing. How much will the new rules regarding stolen bases change the game, and will the number of stolen bases become instantly ridiculous?
Ricky Henderson was the greatest base stealer of all time. His success rate was 80.7%...even when the opposition KNEW he was gonna go almost every time, no matter what the situation.
Some success rates to consider:
JRam......80.6%
Straw......87%
Kwan......79.2%
Gimenez...90.7%
Team.......81.5%
This includes times when one of them was called out for bouncing on a base, which Henderson never had to deal with, and which may be eliminated by the larger bases. Our team success rate was higher than Henderson's.
The average success rate for stolen bases is about 70%, but if stolen bases become totally non competitive, that part of the game becomes a joke. For some players, a walk may become a triple almost at will.
While this may be good for the Guardians, it would be bad for the game.
And another...
A lot of lefthanded batters have tried to hit the ball over a shift. Jose is an example. But others who don't hit a lot of balls in the air have tried to hit the ball hard thru the shift. Bell and Naylor are examples. Will the elimination of shifts mean a lower emphasis on launch angles?
. And yes, MLB and the PA are not addressing the big issue... But they can still do things to improve the game as it evolves.
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