#5 Pick in the 2020 NBA Draft: Your Top Three Choices

[inliner311]

Maybe lucky that we didn't end up with a higher pick? Cavs reportedly have Edwards in their top-3, but less than 10% of fans agree.

Edwards might be slipping.

"Teams are worried about Edwards' drive and enthusiasm for winning, and according to a source, the Golden State Warriors aren't a likely landing spot due to these concerns.

Despite media projections and upside that everyone acknowledges, he has a shaky reputation within NBA circles. Dion Waiters has been used by skeptics as a comparison or low-end outcome for Edwards, an inefficient scorer at Georgia whose Bulldogs finished 13 of 14 teams in the SEC.

Scouts and executives have mentioned that his teams haven't won at any level, and that he even forgets plays and actions.

He could still get consideration at No. 1 from Minnesota, but most seem to think the Wolves will favor Ball, who should also generate more interest from teams looking to trade up, given his superior star power and potential to transform a struggling team's identity with his flashy playmaking and exciting pace.

Meanwhile, the more we ask around about Edwards, the more we hear concern about his professionalism and ability to impact winning, even if his scoring production carries over.

While a trade could throw off any predraft predictions, the likelihood of Edwards dropping to No. 3 seems to have increased. The Charlotte Hornets would then have a tough call, particularly if James Wiseman is still on the board. "

 

[Vipra]

Thoughts on the draft and rebuilding.

1. There are no consensus choice in the top-10. Loosely, there would be no BPA at #5. If Edwards falls to #5, would he be considered BPA? The poll suggests that the fans would rather have another player (Okongwu, Okoro, ..... if available)

2. The Cavs may fill a need by the draft. But what do we need? Apparently, we have enough guards. If Drummond opts in, and we sign TT (there is a high chance for that), then we have enough bigs. We have Cedi, Windler, KPJ, and potentially McKinnie in the wings. We have the pieces. We don't really have a glaring hole in the roster. But we do not have an all-star in any position.

3. We can not prepare for the unexpected. It may happen that we get a great trade offer for some player. But that seems unlikely. It seems likely that we will roll with whatever we have, and try to adjust as we approach the trade deadline. that approach will include what the Cavs want to do about Drummond.

4. If KPJ is viewed as a future star, he would be allowed to start at 2. One of Garland/Sexton has to be the sixth man - I prefer the scoring punch of Sexton there. From whatever I read, it seems like Windler is ready to be rolled as a starting 3. That sets the starting five as Garland, KPJ, Windler, Love, Drummond. Sexton, Cedi, Nance, TT, and Exum will be regular rotation players. The non-guaranteed ones - Bell, McKinnie, and Wade - might see a few minutes each.

5. So, where does another rook fit in? And, who?
---- A tall guard like Haliburton (or Ball or Hayes - both seem improbable, though): If the organization and coach view Exum as expendable
---- A Point Forward like Avdija: If only the Cavs see him the same way some of the fans hype him here, in spite of that FT%
---- A 3-D prospect like Vassell (or Okoro): If we feel that we have floor generals to properly use their skills.
---- An athletic big like Okongwu (or Wiseman - improbable): If a longish-term TT deal doesn't work, or the Cavs already have an offer for Drummond

6. Considering Ball and Wiseman will be gone by the fifth pick, I feel that the Cavs will take this route:
---- Draft Avdija if available
---- Draft Okongwu (as Love's back-up. Lance will play back-up 3, and Cedi will play back-up 2 if we have both Drummond and TT)
---- Draft Haliburton if both of the above two are unavailable

7. Toppin may fall some distance in the draft. His age, and defence, will work against him. However, if the Cavs feel like he is ready to contribute from the Day-1, then there is a possibility of him getting drafted at #5. Windler was 4 months older when drafted. In that case, I'd put Toppin as the 3rd choice above.
So, basically the order goes like this:
== Ball (Improbable)
== Wiseman (Improbable)
== Avdija (50-50)
== Okongwu
== Toppin/ Haliburton

8. Finally, the Cavs may surprise everyone (including themselves) and draft Pokusevski, and hope that he will turn out to be the long-separated basketball-twin of Jokic.

 

[Los216]

Thoughts on the draft and rebuilding.

1. There are no consensus choice in the top-10. Loosely, there would be no BPA at #5. If Edwards falls to #5, would he be considered BPA? The poll suggests that the fans would rather have another player (Okongwu, Okoro, ..... if available)

2. The Cavs may feel a need by the draft. But what do we need? Apparently, we have enough guards. If Drummond opts in, and we sign TT (there is a high chance for that), then we have enough bigs. We have Cedi, Windler, KPJ, and potentially McKinnie in the wings. We have the pieces. We don't really have a glaring hole in the roster. But we do not have an all-star in any position.

3. We can not prepare for the unexpected. It may happen that we get a great trade offer for some player. But that seems unlikely. It seems likely that we will roll with whatever we have, and try to adjust as we approach the trade deadline. that approach will include what the Cavs want to do about Drummond.

4. If KPJ is viewed as a future star, he would be allowed to start at 2. One of Garland/Sexton has to be the sixth man - I prefer the scoring punch of Sexton there. From whatever I read, it seems like Windler is ready to be rolled as a starting 3. That sets the starting five as Garland, KPJ, Windler, Love, Drummond. Sexton, Exum, Cedi, Nance, and TT will be regular rotation players. The non-guaranteed ones - Bell, McKinnie, and Wade - might see a few minutes each.

5. So, where does another rook fit in? And, who?
---- A tall guard like Haliburton (or Ball or Hayes - both seem improbable, though): If the organization and coach view Exum as expendable
---- A Point Forward like Avdija: If only the Cavs see him the same way some of the fans hype him here, in spite of that FT%
---- A 3-D prospect like Vassell (or Okoro): If we feel that we have floor generals to properly use their skills
---- An athletic big like Okongwu (or Wiseman - improbable): If TT deal doesn't work, or the Cavs already have an offer for Drummond

6. Considering Ball and Wiseman will be gone by the fifth pick, I feel that the Cavs will take this route:
---- Draft Avdija if available
---- Draft Okongwu (as Love's back-up. Lance will play back-up 3, and Cedi will play back-up 2 if we have both Drummond and TT)
---- Draft Haliburton if both of the above two are unavailable

7. Toppin may fall some distance in the draft. His age, and defence, will work against him. However, if the Cavs feel like he is ready to contribute from the Day-1, then there is a possibility of him getting drafted at #5. Windler was 4 months older when drafted. In that case, I'd put Toppin as the 3rd choice above.
So, basically the order goes like this:
== Ball (Improbable)
== Wiseman (Improbable)
== Avdija (50-50)
== Okongwu
== Toppin/ Haliburton

8. Finally, the Cavs may surprise everyone (including themselves) and draft Pokusevski, and hope that he will turn out to be the long-separated basketball-twin of Jokic.

SF is a glaring hole on this roster

Avidja and Wiseman both fill needs. Keep in mind that Drummond will be playing on an expiring deal. TT if he comes back will either be on a one year deal or a team friendly 2-3 year deal. That means we're back to needing a big again. The reason why we don't need a guard is because our last 3 draft picks that have played (Sexton, Garland, Porter Jr) are all guards. Windler is a SF but hasn't played a single minute. Cedi is a bench player. The team has all but confirmed that about Cedi. So we need a SF and we would be wise --See what I did there-- to take a big.

 

[daddywags]

Edwards might be slipping.

"Teams are worried about Edwards' drive and enthusiasm for winning, and according to a source, the Golden State Warriors aren't a likely landing spot due to these concerns.

Despite media projections and upside that everyone acknowledges, he has a shaky reputation within NBA circles. Dion Waiters has been used by skeptics as a comparison or low-end outcome for Edwards, an inefficient scorer at Georgia whose Bulldogs finished 13 of 14 teams in the SEC.

Scouts and executives have mentioned that his teams haven't won at any level, and that he even forgets plays and actions.

He could still get consideration at No. 1 from Minnesota, but most seem to think the Wolves will favor Ball, who should also generate more interest from teams looking to trade up, given his superior star power and potential to transform a struggling team's identity with his flashy playmaking and exciting pace.

Meanwhile, the more we ask around about Edwards, the more we hear concern about his professionalism and ability to impact winning, even if his scoring production carries over.

While a trade could throw off any predraft predictions, the likelihood of Edwards dropping to No. 3 seems to have increased. The Charlotte Hornets would then have a tough call, particularly if James Wiseman is still on the board. "

Don't want Edwards. I hope he goes 1-4.

 

[Vipra]

SF is a glaring hole on this roster

Avidja and Wiseman both fill needs. Keep in mind that Drummond will be playing on an expiring deal. TT if he comes back will either be on a one year deal or a team friendly 2-3 year deal. That means we're back to needing a big again. The reason why we don't need a guard is because our last 3 draft picks that have played (Sexton, Garland, Porter Jr) are all guards. Windler is a SF but hasn't played a single minute. Cedi is a bench player. The team has all but confirmed that about Cedi. So we need a SF and we would be wise --See what I did there-- to take a big.

With the good vibes around Windler, it seems like he will start at SF the coming season, with Cedi backing him up. Windler is virtually a 23 year old rookie, though. But if that is a glaring hole, drafting another rookie with the hopes that he delivers instantly, would be fool's gold. But a Point Forward like Avdija (or even Pokusevski - though I am not saying the Cavs should draft him) might be good investment.

There might be a need for a big - depending on how Drummond and TT play out. Drummond might be out next season, or even be traded in the coming season. Okongwu seems like a solid choice (assuming Wiseman will be taken before 5).

One of Avdija and Okongwu should be there at #5 (assuming that Ball, Wiseman, and Edwards will go in the top three). The question then becomes:

If Edwards, Ball, Wiseman, and Avdija are taken 1-4 (an any order), who should the Cavs draft at #5?
or
If Edwards, Ball, Wiseman, and Okongwu are taken 1-4 (an any order), who should the Cavs draft at #5?

 

[Vipra]

Recent User Consensus [<-- click to visit] on NBADraft.net has Killian Hayes being drafted by the Cavs!

53 users voted there. Incidentally, the same number of users have voted here, too!

 

[Vipra]

Here is what I think the pro comparison of the top draft prospects are. These are based just on numbers (box-score figures, sometimes the body measurements, and some advanced stats) as draft prospects, and does not count the intangibles or age.

LaMelo Ball: Taller Lonzo that drives to the basket more often. One of the three that compares well with Lonzo Ball. LaMelo is 1" taller, and hence has better rebound numbers. The projected 3-point shooting rate compares well, even though the actual rates are way different.

Killian Hayes: Shorter Lonzo will much better FT%

Tyrese Haliburton: Shorter Lonzo with less assist numbers but better shooting

Anthony Edwards: Taller and more athletic version of Colin Sexton

James Wiseman: Turbo-charged DeAndre Ayton with less range (but only from a 3-game sample size)

Deni Avdija: Shorter Dario Saric with more range

Obi Toppin: Taller (by 2") Anthony Bennett with better offence

Onyeka Okongwu: Slightly shorter Bam Adebayo with slightly better shooting as well as defence

Isaac Okoro: Slightly better shooting Lance Stephenson

Devin Vassell: Leaner and more perimeter-oriented Justice Winslow

Again, these are just based on raw numbers (and some advanced stats). Avdija might have a much better court vision than Saric, or Toppin might have more drive for success than Bennett - numbers don't tell the entire story.

 

[MikeOC33]

Here is what I think the pro comparison of the top draft prospects are. These are based just on numbers (box-score figures, sometimes the body measurements, and some advanced stats) as draft prospects, and does not count the intangibles or age.



Obi Toppin: Taller (by 2") Anthony Bennett with better offence


Again, these are just based on raw numbers (and some advanced stats). Avdija might have a much better court vision than Saric, or Toppin might have more drive for success than Bennett - numbers don't tell the entire story.

Dang... you REALLY hate Toppin, huh? Anthony Bennett? Jesus, it's a kiss of death!

 

[Vipra]

Dang... you REALLY hate Toppin, huh? Anthony Bennett? Jesus, it's a kiss of death!

Not really. But that's what the numbers tell us

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Here is what I think the pro comparison of the top draft prospects are. These are based just on numbers (box-score figures, sometimes the body measurements, and some advanced stats) as draft prospects, and does not count the intangibles or age.

LaMelo Ball: Taller Lonzo that drives to the basket more often. One of the three that compares well with Lonzo Ball. LaMelo is 1" taller, and hence has better rebound numbers. The projected 3-point shooting rate compares well, even though the actual rates are way different.

Killian Hayes: Shorter Lonzo will much better FT%

Tyrese Haliburton: Shorter Lonzo with less assist numbers but better shooting

Anthony Edwards: Taller and more athletic version of Colin Sexton

James Wiseman: Turbo-charged DeAndre Ayton with less range (but only from a 3-game sample size)

Deni Avdija: Shorter Dario Saric with more range

Obi Toppin: Taller (by 2") Anthony Bennett with better offence

Onyeka Okongwu: Slightly shorter Bam Adebayo with slightly better shooting as well as defence

Isaac Okoro: Slightly better shooting Lance Stephenson

Devin Vassell: Leaner and more perimeter-oriented Justice Winslow

Again, these are just based on raw numbers (and some advanced stats). Avdija might have a much better court vision than Saric, or Toppin might have more drive for success than Bennett - numbers don't tell the entire story.

Does that include defense? Because advanced stats say that Lonzo is a plus defender in the NBA, and that's not LaMelo's rep.

 

[Vipra]

Does it include defense? Because advanced stats say that Lonzo is a plus defender in the NBA, and that's not LaMelo's rep.

It does include advanced stats where available. Also, Lonzo's NCAA stats would be compared to, say, Haliburton's NCAA stats. I compared prospect A's NCAA (or international) stats with player B's NCAA (or international) stats. Now, based on where player B has progressed in his career, we may project where prospect A might end up. LaMelo and Hayes' advanced stats are not available from Tankathon. But Haliburton is pretty close to Lonzo's NCAA advanced stats.

But, as has been pointed out, Toppin - even with very similar stats with Bennett - might prove to be a different player.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

It does include advanced stats where available. Also, Lonzo's NCAA stats would be compared to, say, Haliburton's NCAA stats. I compared prospect A's NCAA (or international) stats with player B's NCAA (or international) stats. Now, based on where player B has progressed in his career, we may project where prospect A might end up. LaMelo and Hayes' advanced stats are not available from Tankathon. But Haliburton is pretty close to Lonzo's NCAA advanced stats.

But, as has been pointed out, Toppin - even with very similar stats with Bennett - might prove to be a different player.

Honestly, I think going just by limited advanced stats may be worse than going with basic stats and the eye test. Ignoring things like defense just because the advanced stats aren't available is going to lead to poor comparisons. If LaMelo defended the way his brother did, and his only issue was his shot, he'd be a much safer prospect.

 

[Vipra]

Honestly, I think going just by limited advanced stats may be worse than going with basic stats and the eye test. Ignoring things like defense just because the advanced stats aren't available is going to lead to poor comparisons.

True. And that's what my disclaimer read

If LaMelo defended the way his brother did, and his only issue was his shot, he'd be a much safer prospect.

Regardless, he seems set to be picked #1 or #2

FWIW, the stats show Pokusevski is Jon Leuer with (ball handling and) assists. Needs to put on weight, though.

 

[inliner311]

Here is what I think the pro comparison of the top draft prospects are. These are based just on numbers (box-score figures, sometimes the body measurements, and some advanced stats) as draft prospects, and does not count the intangibles or age.

LaMelo Ball: Taller Lonzo that drives to the basket more often. One of the three that compares well with Lonzo Ball. LaMelo is 1" taller, and hence has better rebound numbers. The projected 3-point shooting rate compares well, even though the actual rates are way different.

Killian Hayes: Shorter Lonzo will much better FT%

Tyrese Haliburton: Shorter Lonzo with less assist numbers but better shooting

Anthony Edwards: Taller and more athletic version of Colin Sexton

James Wiseman: Turbo-charged DeAndre Ayton with less range (but only from a 3-game sample size)

Deni Avdija: Shorter Dario Saric with more range

Obi Toppin: Taller (by 2") Anthony Bennett with better offence

Onyeka Okongwu: Slightly shorter Bam Adebayo with slightly better shooting as well as defence

Isaac Okoro: Slightly better shooting Lance Stephenson

Devin Vassell: Leaner and more perimeter-oriented Justice Winslow

Again, these are just based on raw numbers (and some advanced stats). Avdija might have a much better court vision than Saric, or Toppin might have more drive for success than Bennett - numbers don't tell the entire story.

I think Anthony Edwards is a taller and bulker version of Sexton. I wouldn't say he is more athletic. People forget that Sexton is probably one of the top 3 or 5 fastest players in the league. I think he is currently faster than Russel Westbrook. Anthony Edwards is built like a running back and I don't think he has anywhere close to the speed of Sexton.

I don't see the Bennett comparison to Toppin. Their build is complete different. Bennett was built like a old school post PF and wasn't really explosive at all. Toppin has an odd build for a basketball player. He has alot of bulk in his shoulders. He is extremely explosive. Both Bennett and Toppin dunked alot in college but Bennett didn't seem to get the lift that Toppin gets. Bennett had real long arms that allowed him to dunk easily but he didn't jump that high. I think Toppin is built much better for the modern NBA. He is taller, leaner, more explosive, and just a better all around athlete than Bennett. Bennett seem have the wrong combination of attributes for the modern NBA. His body type at his height has basically been weeded out of the NBA.

 

[Vipra]

Another one: Saddiq Bey's stats look very similar to those of Damyean Dotson. NBADraft.Net compares him with Chandler Hutchison and Sam Dekker.