Amed Rosario - Play or Trade?

[petes999]

The demand seems to always be there for shortstops in free agency though. And maybe with the shift rules teams start to value the ball in play more than power like they did in the glory years of baseball.

And Amed will be young for a free agent, which sometimes makes teams a bit more comfortable to spend on them.

He puts up another top of the league hit total season I can see someone spending for him.

I was going to shift this over to the GM offseason thread as you brought up a good point on demand ... thus try to address it here quickly (even though it isn't my strength).

Our ex-insider brought up on Rosario -- defensive isn't his best attribute and was helped in his numbers this year due to him being positioned just right (with shift going away - his defense numbers may go down due to his lack of range on what he will be credited for next year of getting to without easy ones in the shift). Gimenez is our better SS but plays 2nd due to Rosario having no other position (even though we tried LF/CF).

Rosario won't be helped by the shift in his hitting because his is right handed and per Baseball Savant he was only shifted twice (needed to keep 2nd baseman even on right side due to his speed - as Rosario beat out several even on that side).

As for teams needing SS ... it is down to
Angels (going with Urshella - biggest hole out there but Neto is a year away)
Boston (going with Story once back from elbow)
LAD (going with Lux who was a top prospect but played 2nd for Turner sake) and
maybe ATL who let Swanson go for Grissom and have Shewmake in AAA (decent prospect).

Not much of a demand. That's it (only Baez in Det gets created in FA next year if he opts out). Per FG, Rosario is 17th in league on projected Steamer WAR but every team has someone they like better for their position where Rosario is stuck in the middle (good bat but not worth $20 million) when they can get someone close to his level for cheaper. Here is the list of who each team has...

East - Tor (Bich), Yank (Torres, Volpe, Perazza), Bal(Henderson,Ortiz), TBR(Franco,Jones), Bos --Story
Central - WS - Anderson, Cle - Gimenez, Arias, Rocchio, KC - Witt, Minn - Correa and Lewis and Det - Baez and Kreidler (10th prospect)
West - Hous - Pena, Sea - Crawford, Oak -Allen, Tex - Seager and Semien, Angels - Ushella, Regifo and ???? but Neto (top 100) coming up in a year

NL E - Mets - Lindor, Phi - Turner, Atl - Grissom and Shewmake, Mia - Wendle?? but Goshans and Amaya in AAA, Wash-Abrams
NL C - Cubs- Swanson, Mil - Adams, Cin - Newman for now but Marte/Cruz about ready, Pitt- another Cruz, StL - Edmann and Winn (Donovan at 2nd),
NL W - SDP - Tatis, SFG - Crawford (only moving him to 2nd for Correa type), Dodgers - Lux & Rojas, Arz - Ahmed but Lawlar (top 50) almost ready, Col - Tovar (another top 50)

 

[CATS44]

Play him.

He gives us the best chance of winning.

Nobody worries that, with a good season, Josh Bell will be gone next winter. Why the angst over Amed.

If the worry is always losing a player next year, why sign guys like Bell and Zunino? If the certainty is that any highly thought of prospect can easily replace a vet, why not have Arias play first this year and Bo play catcher?

In a trade Amed won't bring back a piece that will significantly help the team this year...and the idea is to improve the team this year.

We already have an elite farm system, with prospects, particularly MIFs and SPs, backed up all the way to A ball.

 

[Gson]

Play him.

He gives us the best chance of winning.

Nobody worries that, with a good season, Josh Bell will be gone next winter. Why the angst over Amed.

If the worry is always losing a player next year, why sign guys like Bell and Zunino? If the certainty is that any highly thought of prospect can easily replace a vet, why not have Arias play first this year and Bo play catcher?

In a trade Amed won't bring back a piece that will significantly help the team this year...and the idea is to improve the team this year.

We already have an elite farm system, with prospects, particularly MIFs and SPs, backed up all the way to A ball.

Every statement in this posting is wrong.. every single one...

Josh Bell has no peer/replacement.. Amed does...

No one but an idiot makes the strawman argument that a rookie can easily replace a veteran..

Worrying about this year and next year and the year after is valid.. claiming not worrying about only this year is just plain dumb..

Trading Amed without knowing what the return is makes claiming the return won't help = STUPID

We have an elite farm because it's continuously stocked and restocked.. not whatever this comment is..

What a waste of keystrokes..

 

[Mott the Hoople]

Every statement in this posting is wrong.. every single one...

Josh Bell has no peer/replacement.. Amed does...

No one but an idiot makes the strawman argument that a rookie can easily replace a veteran..

Worrying about this year and next year and the year after is valid.. claiming not worrying about only this year is just plain dumb..

Trading Amed without knowing what the return is makes claiming the return won't help = STUPID

We have an elite farm because it's continuously stocked and restocked.. not whatever this comment is..

What a waste of keystrokes..nny Peralta.

Good points,
The Amed situation reminds me a little of the story with Jhonny Peralta.
Both were/are good hitters. Jhonny even held the record for most HR's by a Tribe SS.
Both were mediocre fielders. The Tribe tried to move him off SS every chance they could.
The Tribe traded Peralta to the Tigers in July of 2010. (for peanuts).
Peralta became a FA the next offseason, and resigned with the Tigers.

I predict something similar for Amed. Just don't expect much in return.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Baseball Reference has the Guardians ranked 11th in WAR at the shortstop position. If Rosario's performance is the same as last year, which it probably will be since his OPS has been remarkably stable for the last six years and he'll be 27 this season, then we're getting above average production at the position.

So it seems unlikely he would be traded if the G's are making a run for the World Series, especially given the importance of the position. However, I could see a situation where it could happen.

1. Freeman or Arias would have to be having a breakout season like Kwan had last year. If Freeman, for example, got to play three times a week to rest Jose, Amed, and Gimenez and also DH'd against left-handed pitching (for Naylor) and was hitting .300 or thereabouts, maybe they would figure Rosario could be replaced with a player equally as good. By the way, Freeman is a guy Chris Valaikas spoke highly about in a recent interview.

2. If the hole was created at another position due to injury, for example if Bell got hurt and was out for the year or we lost Sam Hentges and had no lefty in the pen, we could trade Rosario for a replacement and improve the team, provided Freeman or Arias was deemed ready to take over at short.

3. If a National League contender had a hole at shortstop due to a major injury and needed an experienced and capable bat for the last half of the season we would have a trade partner.

So the answer to the question is "maybe". I think it would take all three of the items listed above to happen - otherwise I can't see a trade occurring. Amed brings a lot of leadership to the table in addition to his bat, glove, and legs. He runs out every ground ball like Game 7 of the World Series depends on it.

2024 MLB Team Position Performance by Wins Above Average | Baseball-Reference.com

Compare the teams across positions by a particular stat

www.baseball-reference.com

 

[DCTribefan]

Every statement in this posting is wrong.. every single one...

Josh Bell has no peer/replacement.. Amed does...

No one but an idiot makes the strawman argument that a rookie can easily replace a veteran..

Worrying about this year and next year and the year after is valid.. claiming not worrying about only this year is just plain dumb..

Trading Amed without knowing what the return is makes claiming the return won't help = STUPID

We have an elite farm because it's continuously stocked and restocked.. not whatever this comment is..

What a waste of keystrokes..

 

[petes999]

Baseball Reference has the Guardians ranked 11th in WAR at the shortstop position. If Rosario's performance is the same as last year, which it probably will be since his OPS has been remarkably stable for the last six years and he'll be 27 this season, then we're getting above average production at the position.

So it seems unlikely he would be traded if the G's are making a run for the World Series, especially given the importance of the position. However, I could see a situation where it could happen.

1. Freeman or Arias would have to be having a breakout season like Kwan had last year. If Freeman, for example, got to play three times a week to rest Jose, Amed, and Gimenez and also DH'd against left-handed pitching (for Naylor) and was hitting .300 or thereabouts, maybe they would figure Rosario could be replaced with a player equally as good. By the way, Freeman is a guy Chris Valaikas spoke highly about in a recent interview.

2. If the hole was created at another position due to injury, for example if Bell got hurt and was out for the year or we lost Sam Hentges and had no lefty in the pen, we could trade Rosario for a replacement and improve the team, provided Freeman or Arias was deemed ready to take over at short.

3. If a National League contender had a hole at shortstop due to a major injury and needed an experienced and capable bat for the last half of the season we would have a trade partner.

So the answer to the question is "maybe". I think it would take all three of the items listed above to happen - otherwise I can't see a trade occurring. Amed brings a lot of leadership to the table in addition to his bat, glove, and legs. He runs out every ground ball like Game 7 of the World Series depends on it.

2024 MLB Team Position Performance by Wins Above Average | Baseball-Reference.com

Compare the teams across positions by a particular stat

www.baseball-reference.com

Just a few caveats about that 11th SS rating .... it is helped by Gimenez sliding over for 18 games or so w his defense score and hitting being allocated.

Also, BR has given Rosario consistent oWar for last 3 yrs but defense went slight negative to positive. Question is if that will be maintained.

Not all rating services are same ... FG still gives Rosario negative d ratings and is 15th in their SS comparison (just click SS). And, newer SS should start jumping him soon. And, he is close to mediocre gus like IKF and Farmer. Like I said before, you don't lose much w first year guys (due to better defense) but hope is your best of Arias, Freeman or Rocchio is one step closer to a year 2+ like Gimenez where that jump gets you closer to WS contenders.

Major League Leaderboards - 2022 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

 

[Cleveland is the Reason]

I think too often people forget that WAR is a counting stat, just like hits, runs, RBI. So more playing time in the field, more at bats means more opportunity to accrue WAR.

Amed had the 5th most PAs out of all shortstops and played the 9th most innings at shortstop last year. He had a lot of opportunity to accrue that counting stat.

I’m sure if you can find a rate per WAR stat Amed wouldn’t be 11th. Doesn’t mean he isn’t a good player though!

 

[AZ_]

Josh Bell has no peer/replacement.. Amed does...

No one but an idiot makes the strawman argument that a rookie can easily replace a veteran..

That’s not what a straw man means.

This take is so terrible it’s hard to even get through, and I’ll be honest…I didn’t.

 

[CDAV45]

Does Amed give us the best chance of winning? Does anyone else see the issue with that line of thinking? He's average with the bat, below average with the glove and one of the highest paid players on the roster. If that's the best chance of winning then we're f'd come playoff time. The best chance of winning would be Arias realizing his potential or Rocchio taking over early in the season and excelling. That also comes with the biggest risk, but you have to get those kids a look or you'll be doing it in 2024 and after when we should be at our best. Amed doesn't suck, but he's a FA after the 23 season and is easily replaced. The difference between Arias and Rosario's defense alone is significant. I find it ironic how some opposed to giving SS to Arias are also some of the biggest Straw supporters here.

Edited to say that the very same reasons Cleveland should deal him are the very same reasons very few teams will have interest in him. Especially at $9M. He's just not worth that.

 

[CDAV45]

Just a few caveats about that 11th SS rating .... it is helped by Gimenez sliding over for 18 games or so w his defense score and hitting being allocated.

Also, BR has given Rosario consistent oWar for last 3 yrs but defense went slight negative to positive. Question is if that will be maintained.

Not all rating services are same ... FG still gives Rosario negative d ratings and is 15th in their SS comparison (just click SS). And, newer SS should start jumping him soon. And, he is close to mediocre gus like IKF and Farmer. Like I said before, you don't lose much w first year guys (due to better defense) but hope is your best of Arias, Freeman or Rocchio is one step closer to a year 2+ like Gimenez where that jump gets you closer to WS contenders.

Major League Leaderboards - 2022 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

This^. Well put Pete. Pretty much the same thing I was saying, but much more detailed.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I don't want to torpedo the next seven years because we're afraid of possible regression this year.

If we don't get Arias and/or Rocchio consistent playing time this year, we're doing them a massive ddisservice.

Amed is a slightly above average bat and a below average defender. He's not anyone you need to have around--especially when you have Gimenez, Freeman, Arias and Rocchio all champing at the bit.

The problem is--who is willing to give up value for Amed? We might have to wait for another SS to get injured for there to be demand. If there was a solid offer on the table, he'd be out of town already.

 

[AZ_]

Growth and level of play is not linear. It does not always translate year to year.

Not sure how many times the org has to say it.

Amed has a spot, Amed needs to earn his spot.


Not just in March, but in April, May, June and up until the deadline.

Don’t like it? Tough, that’s business.

 

[CDAV45]

Growth and level of play is not linear. It does not always translate year to year.

Not sure how many times the org has to say it.

Amed has a spot, Amed needs to earn his spot.


Not just in March, but in April, May, June and up until the deadline.

Don’t like it? Tough, that’s business.

The organization also trades players in Amed's predicament so..... And they've "said" that numerous times.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying about growth and level of play not being linear. Are you suggesting Amed is a more sure option, a better option, both or neither?

Amed is in the way due to his looming FA and average play. A team like the Guardians should bank on the upside of guys like Arias, Freeman and Rocchio. That doesn't mean that Amed isn't a good bridge or insurance policy to one of them, but I think they need to give the up and comers real opportunities. Just my $.02. It's baseball and nothing is for sure until it happens and even then it might be a mirage.

 

[CDAV45]

I don't want to torpedo the next seven years because we're afraid of possible regression this year.

If we don't get Arias and/or Rocchio consistent playing time this year, we're doing them a massive ddisservice.

Amed is a slightly above average bat and a below average defender. He's not anyone you need to have around--especially when you have Gimenez, Freeman, Arias and Rocchio all champing at the bit.

The problem is--who is willing to give up value for Amed? We might have to wait for another SS to get injured for there to be demand. If there was a solid offer on the table, he'd be out of town already.

I don't know if it would be torpedoing the next seven years, but I agree that now is the best time to find out about other options. Arias needs to play and get consistent AB. It's that simple.

We're simply not going to get much for Amed alone. Boston is probably the best bet right now and they sure as hell don't have much to offer. Maybe package Amed with Plesac and Straw to get Houck and a prospect or 2 in return?