Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[Smooth]

The rankings are a bit weird this year. I don't know why but QB play across the league is lower than normal. Pretty sure the average QBR is muuuuuch lower than previous years. He's 7th (or 8th depending on the source) in QBR this year, but if he had the exact same season last year he'd be tied for 23rd (w/Goff). Below guys like Trubisky, Ben, Daniel Jones. He'd be ranked 15th in 2019 and 17th in 2018. So he's actually playing worse this year than he usually does. 2020 Baker (in terms of QBR) is #1 in the entire 2021 league. That's how much lower the play has been overall.

This year is just weird in terms of QBR, and probably the same for EPA and CPOE. He's having an okay year and when he's rolling, he's a slightly above average QB. But I'm not blowing up the QB position for him. Even at his best he hasn't put together a year like 2020 Baker and being injury prone doesn't help.

Good dude, decent player, but nah.

Again, I didn't quite believe it either but look how Garoppolo ranks the last few years:

2021, CPOE+EPA: 6th
2021-2019, CPOE+EPA: 9th
2021-2018, CPOE+EPA: 8th
2021, CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs: 2nd
2021-2019, CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs: 2nd
2021-2018: CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs: 3rd
2021-2019, QBR: 60.26
2021-2019, QB Rating: 97.83

Now compared to Baker:

2021, CPOE+EPA: 28th
2021-2019, CPOE+EPA: 29th
2021-2018, CPOE+EPA: 24th
2021, CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs: 33rd
2021-2019, CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs: 39th
2021-2018: CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs: 40th
2021-2019, QBR: 52.6
2021-2019, QB Rating: 88.2

The point within this is that the narrative that "maybe Baker is having a bad stretch" needs to be reevaluated as "maybe this is Baker who he is and 2020/2018 stretch Baker was a mirage", as well even an upgrade to consistently middle tier would even be an upgrade over with how Bake has performed the last few years...

 

[Vee-Rex]

The point within this is that the narrative that "maybe Baker is having a bad stretch" needs to be reevaluated as "maybe this is Baker who he is and 2020/2018 stretch Baker was a mirage", as well even an upgrade to consistently middle tier would even be an upgrade over with how Bake has performed the last few years...

Right now we don't know who Baker is. Did he grow into 2020 Baker and was going to continue that level of play until he got injured? Is he still 2019 Baker? Is he somewhere in between? Is he just an average QB that is consistently inconsistent?

There's a chance you can misevaluate a QB still on his rookie contract by grabbing career numbers. Do that for Josh Allen. You'll come out with a worse QB evaluation than what he truly is at this present day and age. Take any NBA player at their best and most likely the career numbers don't reflect the level they are in their peak

Maybe 2020/2018 Baker is indeed a mirage - I'm not saying he isn't. I guess my point is that I don't see Jimmy G as being the answer if 2020 Baker couldn't get it done. Dude has a hard time staying on the field as well.

Baker isn't a trash QB as much as people want him to be, heh.

 

[ZooCrewDude]

Well the debate has seemed to run its course. All of the evidence (short of a miracle finish to the season) is present for both sides to have firmly made up their minds and they have… so where do we go from here?

A lot of folks have hit on the below scenarios, I only compile and puke them out to organize my own thoughts. I’m exhausted by the potential and feeling like we’re letting a window collapse around us and typing this out feels a bit therapeutic. LONG POST DISCLAIMER: Skip/ignore the below if you feel at peace with the options ahead and have them sorted out for yourself!

The Options (as I see them):

Option 1. Let Baker play out the final year of his contract and re-evaluate.

Option 2. Replace Baker after this season via one of the following scenarios:
a. Draft
b. Trade for a high level improvement at the position
c. FA/trade for small improvement at the position and still high draft pick

Option 3. Hybrid approach: allow Baker to play out his 5th year AND draft a QB in April. Lay out the expectation with Baker that the job next year is his, but the team won’t leave themselves empty handed going into 2023 in the event it doesn’t work out for both parties.

Option 4. Extend Baker at a team friendly deal and cast our lot with him for the future.


An evaluation…

Option 1:

The benefits:

• Gives us another year to see what impact Baker’s injuries truly had and also the opportunity to improve the WR talent around him. Eliminate every remaining excuse.
• Gives us another year of team friendly value for the QB position.
• Bridges the gap of a bad QB FA class in 2022 to a more attractive one in 2023.
• Bridges the gap of an average QB draft class to a (hopefully) more attractive one in 2023.
• Maintains continuity in an organization that has historically lacked it.

The drawbacks:

• We kick the can of solving our QB issue if it turns out he’s a full time pumpkin and not a carriage.
• The window is one year closer to closing on key rookies/high value contracts if Baker does not improve play.
• We miss the opportunity to get started on grooming a drafted QB.
• Potential for locker-room/roster turmoil if things do not play out well. This approach keeps an unnecessary microscope on the team.

Option 2a:

The benefits:

• Rips the band-aid off and purges the organization of trying to contend in the midst of a QB controversy.
• We limit the draft capital needed to potentially improve the position to 1 pick.
• Berry/Stefanski get ‘their guy’

The drawbacks:

• We’re gambling on hitting on a pick and expecting results immediately from a rookie… otherwise we’re pushing legitimate contention out several years.
• Loss of continuity.

Option 2b:

The benefits:

• IF a high level veteran is available, it’s the quickest way to capitalize on the current talent on the roster. A Rodgers or Russ level player immediately improve the team going into next season and allow us to contend ASAP.
• Rips the band-aid off and purges the organization of trying to contend in the midst of a QB controversy.

The drawbacks:

• Loss of talent and draft capital while also having to invest more in the QB position. It’s a difficult league to retool once you have the cap crater that is the QB position. Aggravate that by losing the ability to retool via the draft due to loss of high level picks is daunting to say the least. This could mean a 1 or 2 year window and then we’re done.

Option 2c:

The benefits:

• Gives us a stopgap that allows us to be as (or more) competitive as we are with Baker while buying us a year to evaluate the draft or higher impact value trade/FA targets.
• Eliminates the turmoil surrounding Baker that seems to continue to fester.

The drawbacks:

• All three options at the end of next year could be a failure. We could come up empty in the 2023 FA market, the rookie could be a bust delaying out contention and collapsing our window, and whoever we sign this offseason could continue to be this year’s version of Baker. We’d be back at square 1.
• If we end up with less production than Baker, we spiral into some locker room/culture issues and potential distrust in the FO amongst players.

Option 3:

The benefits:

• Creates a competition without creating a competition.
• Gives us an extra year to evaluate Baker but doesn’t leave us without a low cost QB option after next year.
• We have the option to resign Baker, forge ahead with the rook, or buy a QB in FA (which looks better in 2023) all while only spending $18M for next year and the potential of 1 wasted pick as a fall back for the position.

The drawbacks:

• All three options at the end of next year could be a failure. We could come up empty in the 2023 FA market, the rookie could be a bust delaying out contention and collapsing our window, and Baker could continue to be this year’s version of Baker. We’d be back at square 1.
• Baker feels threatened by the approach, and we spiral into some locker room/culture issues next season at the first sign of poor performance by Baker.

Option 4:

I don’t think anyone is advocating for this approach at this point, so I won’t discuss it.


Recommendation:

Ugh. I’m still too disappointed that we’re faced with this to even bend my mind around the decision at hand, but I think for the moment I’m leaning towards Option 1 unless things spiral further, and the situation becomes toxic (not at all unlikely the way things are going).

A fickle beast, this league and finding success in it.

 

[daddywags]

Well the debate has seemed to run its course. All of the evidence (short of a miracle finish to the season) is present for both sides to have firmly made up their minds and they have… so where do we go from here?

A lot of folks have hit on the below scenarios, I only compile and puke them out to organize my own thoughts. I’m exhausted by the potential and feeling like we’re letting a window collapse around us and typing this out feels a bit therapeutic. LONG POST DISCLAIMER: Skip/ignore the below if you feel at peace with the options ahead and have them sorted out for yourself!

The Options (as I see them):

Option 1. Pick up the option and let Baker play out the final year of his contract and re-evaluate.

Option 2. Replace Baker after this season via one of the following scenarios:

• Draft
• Trade for a high level improvement at the position
• FA/trade for small improvement at the position and still high draft pick

Option 3. Hybrid approach: allow Baker to play out his 5th year AND draft a QB in April. Lay out the expectation with Baker that the job next year is his, but the team won’t leave themselves empty handed going into 2023 in the event it doesn’t work out for both parties.

Option 4. Extend Baker at a team friendly deal and cast our lot with him for the future.


An evaluation…

Option 1:

The benefits:

• Gives us another year to see what impact Baker’s injuries truly had and also the opportunity to improve the WR talent around him. Eliminate every remaining excuse.
• Gives us another year of team friendly value for the QB position.
• Bridges the gap of a bad QB FA class in 2022 to a more attractive one in 2023.
• Bridges the gap of an average QB draft class to a (hopefully) more attractive one in 2023.
• Maintains continuity in an organization that has historically lacked it.

The drawbacks:

• We kick the can of solving our QB issue if it turns out he’s a full time pumpkin and not a carriage.
• The window is one year closer to closing on key rookies/high value contracts if Baker does not improve play.
• We miss the opportunity to get started on grooming a drafted QB.
• Potential for locker-room/roster turmoil if things do not play out well. This approach keeps an unnecessary microscope on the team.

Option 2a:

The benefits:

• Rips the band-aid off and purges the organization of trying to contend in the midst of a QB controversy.
• We limit the draft capital needed to potentially improve the position to 1 pick.
• Berry/Stefanski get ‘their guy’

The drawbacks:

• We’re gambling on hitting on a pick and expecting results immediately from a rookie… otherwise we’re pushing legitimate contention out several years.
• Loss of continuity.

Option 2b:

The benefits:

• IF a high level veteran is available, it’s the quickest way to capitalize on the current talent on the roster. A Rodgers or Russ level player immediately improve the team going into next season and allow us to contend ASAP.
• Rips the band-aid off and purges the organization of trying to contend in the midst of a QB controversy.

The drawbacks:

• Loss of talent and draft capital while also having to invest more in the QB position. It’s a difficult league to retool once you have the cap crater that is the QB position. Aggravate that by losing the ability to retool via the draft due to loss of high level picks is daunting to say the least. This could mean a 1 or 2 year window and then we’re done.

Option 2c:

The benefits:

• Gives us a stopgap that allows us to be as (or more) competitive as we are with Baker while buying us a year to evaluate the draft or higher impact value trade/FA targets.
• Eliminates the turmoil surrounding Baker that seems to continue to fester.

The drawbacks:

• All three options at the end of next year could be a failure. We could come up empty in the 2023 FA market, the rookie could be a bust delaying out contention and collapsing our window, and Baker could continue to be this year’s version of Baker. We’d be back at square 1.
• Baker could feel underappreciated by approach, and we spiral into some locker room/culture issues next season at the first sign of poor performance by Baker.

Option 3:

The benefits:

• Creates a competition without creating a competition.
• Gives us an extra year to evaluate Baker but doesn’t leave us without a low cost QB option after next year.
• We have the option to resign Baker, forge ahead with the rook, or buy a QB in FA (which looks better in 2023) all while only spending $18M for next year and the potential of 1 wasted pick as a fall back for the position.

The drawbacks:

• All three options at the end of next year could be a failure. We could come up empty in the 2023 FA market, the rookie could be a bust delaying out contention and collapsing our window, and Baker could continue to be this year’s version of Baker. We’d be back at square 1.
• Baker feels threatened by the approach, and we spiral into some locker room/culture issues next season at the first sign of poor performance by Baker.

Option 4:

I don’t think anyone is advocating for this approach at this point, so I won’t discuss it.


Recommendation:

Ugh. I’m still too disappointed that we’re faced with this to even bend my mind around the decision we’re faced with, but I think for the moment I’m leaning towards Option 1 unless things spiral further, and the situation becomes toxic (not at all unlikely the way things are going).

A fickle beast, this league and finding success in it.

As for option 1, we already picked up his 2022 option so he's here for next season unless traded or released.

 

[Sebastian]

Well the debate has seemed to run its course. All of the evidence (short of a miracle finish to the season) is present for both sides to have firmly made up their minds and they have… so where do we go from here?

A lot of folks have hit on the below scenarios, I only compile and puke them out to organize my own thoughts. I’m exhausted by the potential and feeling like we’re letting a window collapse around us and typing this out feels a bit therapeutic. LONG POST DISCLAIMER: Skip/ignore the below if you feel at peace with the options ahead and have them sorted out for yourself!

The Options (as I see them):

Option 1. Let Baker play out the final year of his contract and re-evaluate.

Option 2. Replace Baker after this season via one of the following scenarios:

• Draft
• Trade for a high level improvement at the position
• FA/trade for small improvement at the position and still high draft pick

Option 3. Hybrid approach: allow Baker to play out his 5th year AND draft a QB in April. Lay out the expectation with Baker that the job next year is his, but the team won’t leave themselves empty handed going into 2023 in the event it doesn’t work out for both parties.

Option 4. Extend Baker at a team friendly deal and cast our lot with him for the future.


An evaluation…

Option 1:

The benefits:

• Gives us another year to see what impact Baker’s injuries truly had and also the opportunity to improve the WR talent around him. Eliminate every remaining excuse.
• Gives us another year of team friendly value for the QB position.
• Bridges the gap of a bad QB FA class in 2022 to a more attractive one in 2023.
• Bridges the gap of an average QB draft class to a (hopefully) more attractive one in 2023.
• Maintains continuity in an organization that has historically lacked it.

The drawbacks:

• We kick the can of solving our QB issue if it turns out he’s a full time pumpkin and not a carriage.
• The window is one year closer to closing on key rookies/high value contracts if Baker does not improve play.
• We miss the opportunity to get started on grooming a drafted QB.
• Potential for locker-room/roster turmoil if things do not play out well. This approach keeps an unnecessary microscope on the team.

Option 2a:

The benefits:

• Rips the band-aid off and purges the organization of trying to contend in the midst of a QB controversy.
• We limit the draft capital needed to potentially improve the position to 1 pick.
• Berry/Stefanski get ‘their guy’

The drawbacks:

• We’re gambling on hitting on a pick and expecting results immediately from a rookie… otherwise we’re pushing legitimate contention out several years.
• Loss of continuity.

Option 2b:

The benefits:

• IF a high level veteran is available, it’s the quickest way to capitalize on the current talent on the roster. A Rodgers or Russ level player immediately improve the team going into next season and allow us to contend ASAP.
• Rips the band-aid off and purges the organization of trying to contend in the midst of a QB controversy.

The drawbacks:

• Loss of talent and draft capital while also having to invest more in the QB position. It’s a difficult league to retool once you have the cap crater that is the QB position. Aggravate that by losing the ability to retool via the draft due to loss of high level picks is daunting to say the least. This could mean a 1 or 2 year window and then we’re done.

Option 2c:

The benefits:

• Gives us a stopgap that allows us to be as (or more) competitive as we are with Baker while buying us a year to evaluate the draft or higher impact value trade/FA targets.
• Eliminates the turmoil surrounding Baker that seems to continue to fester.

The drawbacks:

• All three options at the end of next year could be a failure. We could come up empty in the 2023 FA market, the rookie could be a bust delaying out contention and collapsing our window, and Baker could continue to be this year’s version of Baker. We’d be back at square 1.
• Baker could feel underappreciated by approach, and we spiral into some locker room/culture issues next season at the first sign of poor performance by Baker.

Option 3:

The benefits:

• Creates a competition without creating a competition.
• Gives us an extra year to evaluate Baker but doesn’t leave us without a low cost QB option after next year.
• We have the option to resign Baker, forge ahead with the rook, or buy a QB in FA (which looks better in 2023) all while only spending $18M for next year and the potential of 1 wasted pick as a fall back for the position.

The drawbacks:

• All three options at the end of next year could be a failure. We could come up empty in the 2023 FA market, the rookie could be a bust delaying out contention and collapsing our window, and Baker could continue to be this year’s version of Baker. We’d be back at square 1.
• Baker feels threatened by the approach, and we spiral into some locker room/culture issues next season at the first sign of poor performance by Baker.

Option 4:

I don’t think anyone is advocating for this approach at this point, so I won’t discuss it.


Recommendation:

Ugh. I’m still too disappointed that we’re faced with this to even bend my mind around the decision we’re faced with, but I think for the moment I’m leaning towards Option 1 unless things spiral further, and the situation becomes toxic (not at all unlikely the way things are going).

A fickle beast, this league and finding success in it.

I want to add to this great analysis is that it did not have to be this way.

We've got guys who should have swallowed their pride and forced the dude to heal.

Not only is the season lost, but his career is possibly fucked.

KS and AB needed to be the adults in the room because of the type of person Baker is. He needed to be forced to sit.

This was avoidable to an extent. It is such a shame and a waste.

 

[daddywags]

I really think that if we beat Baltimore in two weeks the season is still salvageable. And I think we can beat Baltimore in two weeks. Call me crazy, but football seasons, like football games, can take very unexpected twists and turns.

 

[Malacogary]

I really think that if we beat Baltimore in two weeks the season is still salvageable. And I think we can beat Baltimore in two weeks. Call me crazy, but football seasons, like football games, can take very unexpected twists and turns.

Absolutely agree. If the defense can reproduce what they did yesterday, even outside of the turnovers, we have a good chance. Having said that, no result would surprise me.

 

[Malacogary]

I want to add to this great analysis is that it did not have to be this way.

We've got guys who should have swallowed their pride and forced the dude to heal.

Not only is the season lost, but his career is possibly fucked.

KS and AB needed to be the adults in the room because of the type of person Baker is. He needed to be forced to sit.

This was avoidable to an extent. It is such a shame and a waste.

I think that's a fair and reasoned comment, but would ask at which point in the season do you think that decision should have been made, and how long he should have sat given that we knew the labrum issue would not heal without season-ending surgery?

Maybe he should have been shut down for the season after that Cards game? Anything remotely good that's happened for him since has not represented a sustainable upward trend of recovery. Injury has piled on top of injury to the point we're now at.

 

[Real Deal]

Bruh, if Los is running this team he's throwing Cam out there for us whom just went 5-21.

Now he's on the Jimmy G train. His career fell off after he fucked famous pornstar Kiara Mia.

I watched Russ's first possession and it was very Baker like. He has DK and Lockett... and he's sailing his 8 yard throws even with his injury. I give Baker some benefit of the doubt because on last season.

Throw Baker out there one more season, add a top end WR in the draft and bring in one through FA.

That's if Russ doesn't want to come here. But we need to entice a QB to even wanna come here. Denver beats us out in my opinion.

 

[buzzdog]

I think that's a fair and reasoned comment, but would ask at which point in the season do you think that decision should have been made, and how long he should have sat given that we knew the labrum issue would not heal without season-ending surgery?

Maybe he should have been shut down for the season after that Cards game? Anything remotely good that's happened for him since has not represented a sustainable upward trend of recovery. Injury has piled on top of injury to the point we're now at.

I'll bite. He should have sat the second half of the Patriots game and all of the Lions game. He then would have had his bum heel feeling better for the Ravens game. As it was he was limping badly after the second play against the Ravens. He was never given the chance to heal up, not even a little bit.

 

[daddywags]

Bruh, if Los is running this team he's throwing Cam out there for us whom just went 5-21.

Now he's on the Jimmy G train. His career fell off after he fucked famous pornstar Kiara Mia.

I watched Russ's first possession and it was very Baker like. He has DK and Lockett... and he's sailing his 8 yard throws even with his injury. I give Baker some benefit of the doubt because on last season.

Throw Baker out there one more season, add a top end WR in the draft and bring in one through FA.

That's if Russ doesn't want to come here. But we need to entice a QB to even wanna come here. Denver beats us out in my opinion.

I'm not even a Mayfield fan but I think we have to give him next season. Fix the wide receiver room though.

 

[Real Deal]

You can just look at this and blame the playcalling, our WR room is putrid.

NE fans also feel like their room is putrid, but they have superior coaching, and also handling his QB with training wheels. Bill will always do more with less.

You can see why Baker is failing. It's not just on him.

 

[Sebastian]

I think that's a fair and reasoned comment, but would ask at which point in the season do you think that decision should have been made, and how long he should have sat given that we knew the labrum issue would not heal without season-ending surgery?

Maybe he should have been shut down for the season after that Cards game? Anything remotely good that's happened for him since has not represented a sustainable upward trend of recovery. Injury has piled on top of injury to the point we're now at.

I think the turning point where one could reasonably infer he was too beat up to perform was when he fractured his humerus in Week 6, and most certainly with the bruised heel, in Week 8? 9?

The latter being particularly bad because that effects how he plants his feet, and one was noticing he was favoring his foot the past few weeks.

Both injuries have taken a toll on his mechanics and it shows with his pass attempts. His accuracy has been savaged.

And, generally, he is afraid to get hit (who can blame him) and bails from the pocket too early. Not his fault really. He is playing with a torn labrum and broken arm. He should not be out there.

I think he should have been shutdown in Week 7 with a hope of return in against the Ravens or Week 13. And I think I said as much.

But certainly after the heel injury for 3-4 weeks.

 

[Sebastian]

I'm not even a Mayfield fan but I think we have to give him next season. Fix the wide receiver room though.

I agree.

Dude is crippled right now. One cannot make an evaluation with him in that condition.

Next year, provided he is healthy, is the put up or shut up year for him.

If not for any other reason than the Browns have no realistic way to upgrade this season.

 

[Smooth]

Right now we don't know who Baker is. Did he grow into 2020 Baker and was going to continue that level of play until he got injured? Is he still 2019 Baker? Is he somewhere in between? Is he just an average QB that is consistently inconsistent?

There's a chance you can misevaluate a QB still on his rookie contract by grabbing career numbers. Do that for Josh Allen. You'll come out with a worse QB evaluation than what he truly is at this present day and age. Take any NBA player at their best and most likely the career numbers don't reflect the level they are in their peak

Maybe 2020/2018 Baker is indeed a mirage - I'm not saying he isn't. I guess my point is that I don't see Jimmy G as being the answer if 2020 Baker couldn't get it done. Dude has a hard time staying on the field as well.

Baker isn't a trash QB as much as people want him to be, heh.

I think that's the frustrating part is just when we think we know what Baker is, his performance suddenly veers the opposite way... I just think the discussion is too focused on giving Baker the benefit of the doubt that this season is the anamoly when in reality it may be the other way around... The other problem is even if you way his year last year along with his year so far this year, it still averages out to a below average starting QB...

If you want to compare Allen for discussions sake:

2021, CPOE+EPA: 4th
2021-2019, CPOE+EPA: 10th
2021-2018, CPOE+EPA: 22nd
2021, CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs: 33rd
2021-2019, CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs: 10th
2021-2018: CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs: 8th
2021-2019, QBR: 63.86
2021-2019, QB Rating: 97.2

The difference in the case of Allen is you can clearly see the linear progression throughout the course of his career, where as Baker it's bounced back and forth between above average and below average, but his below average play has dragged down his average way more than his above average play has boosted it... You also have Allen regressing from last year but still playing at a high level, whereas Baker is making the same mistakes and we have the same questions as we did his rookie year, which is not what you want in year 4...

I don't think Jimmy G is "the answer" but I do think he may be a realistic solution if we're looking to upgrade the quarterback play... And that's not even to say he's a top tier quarterback it's just the quarterback play we've gotten has been a lot worse then I even realized and someone like Jimmy G may be an upgrade..