Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[CBBI]

No doubt. Keenum wins the Steelers game, too.

Once Baker missed the Broncos game, he should have been put down until the bye week. We'd have one more win right now and have given Baker time to heal.

Just a massive fuck up.

I don't think it can be overstated how lousy Keenum actually is. He's really and truly completely washed up.

I absolutely do not think it's a guarantee the Browns win either of those games with him at QB.

For as much shit as Baker justifiably catches from a lot of us about his struggles in obvious passing situations, Keenum has been faced with 3rd and more than 4 on ten occasions this season.

He's 2/8 passing for 19 yards.
He has 1 rush for 2 yards.
He was sacked 1 time.
He converted 1 first down in 10 tries.

The Browns faced 3rd or 4th and more than four 12 times against Baltimore alone. Keenum would have been dead.

 

[Malacogary]

Why do we all think Stefanski is leaving Baker out there? He's continually shot down the idea that Keenum sub Mayfield week after week as if it were the most ridiculous idea that the media and fans could possibly come up with.

Is it a case of wanting Baker to put out a body of work which definitively establishes that we go with a different QB solution as soon as next year?

Does he genuinely think that this version of Baker offers a better chance of winning games than Keenum while we're still theoretically in contention for the postseason?

The thing which blows my mind is that the Ravens are currently the number one seed in the AFC. A few more positive offensive snaps last night and we could—and should—have beaten them. Didn't have to be Mayfield-authored per se; could have been Chubb or Hunt breaking just a couple of runs.

There's still plenty of football to be played. The division and the conference have been so unpredictable that while the result last night was a sickening body blow, it does not yet rule out postseason play. Baltimore are surely only round the corner from a real shellacking by any reasonably competent football team in the coming weeks. Crazily enough that could still be us. Stefanski is either a believer in that unlikely scenario or he's already written off the season.

Is it sadism or masochism?

 

[Malacogary]

I think you're underselling Jimmy G here

SF are still largely winning off the running game. Jimmy G threw a horrible pick yesterday. His only very good performance this year is the Bears game where he actually ran for two scores himself.

 

[Malacogary]

This hobbled, gun-shy, spooked and scrambled version of Baker is very bad indeed, but I refuse to believe that the rookie year and the back end of last season were a mirage-like instance of a guy simply 'getting hot'.

 

[Smooth]

SF are still largely winning off the running game. Jimmy G threw a horrible pick yesterday. His only very good performance this year is the Bears game where he actually ran for two scores himself.

I couldn't believe it when I looked it up but Jimmy G was 12th in QBR in 2019, and 7th in 2021... He's currently second in the league in EPA+CPOE on 3rd and 4th downs, and 2nd over the last three years, and 12th in EPA+CPOE in total over the last three years and 6th this year..

For comparison, Baker is 28th in CPOE+EPA this year, 32nd over the last three years, and 39th in CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs the last three years and 33rd this year...

I can't believe I'm saying it but @Los216 may be right

 

[CBBI]

Does he genuinely think that this version of Baker offers a better chance of winning games than Keenum while we're still theoretically in contention for the postseason?

Simple answer: Yes.

More complex answer: Yes, but there are several additional reasons why the Browns are unwilling to making the switch that have nothing to do with how much more effective Keenum may or may not be over the course of one play, one possession, one half, one game.

 

[Malacogary]

I couldn't believe it when I looked it up but Jimmy G was 12th in QBR in 2019, and 7th in 2021... He's currently second in the league in EPA+CPOE on 3rd and 4th downs, and 2nd over the last three years, and 12th in EPA+CPOE in total over the last three years and 6th this year..

For comparison, Baker is 28th in CPOE+EPA this year, 32nd over the last three years, and 39th in CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs the last three years and 33rd this year...

I can't believe I'm saying it but @Los216 may be right

All perfectly commendable stats from JG. But crucially, they confirm that he's the dictionary definition of the Game Manager. When the other aspects of the Shanahan offense are functioning well, Garoppolo is adept at running it and not crashing the car. Those stats say more about the scheme and the personnel around the QB than they do about Jimmy.

 

[Los216]

I couldn't believe it when I looked it up but Jimmy G was 12th in QBR in 2019, and 7th in 2021... He's currently second in the league in EPA+CPOE on 3rd and 4th downs, and 2nd over the last three years, and 12th in EPA+CPOE in total over the last three years and 6th this year..

For comparison, Baker is 28th in CPOE+EPA this year, 32nd over the last three years, and 39th in CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs the last three years and 33rd this year...

I can't believe I'm saying it but @Los216 may be right

 

[Los216]

All perfectly commendable stats from JG. But crucially, they confirm that he's the dictionary definition of the Game Manager. When the other aspects of the Shanahan offense are functioning well, Garoppolo is adept at running it and not crashing the car. Those stats say more about the scheme and the personnel around the QB than they do about Jimmy.

Well then why would Jimmy G not have just as much if not more success than Baker has here if they play in similar systems? We also have a better running game and better O-Line than SF.

You're basically saying that Jimmy G has proven that he can be an effective Game manager in this system and right now Baker Mayfield is not even doing that.

I just think one QB is clearly better and an upgrade at the position that won't break the bank or require significant assets.

 

[Malacogary]

Well then why would Jimmy G not have just as much if not more success than Baker has here if they play in similar systems? We also have a better running game and better O-Line than SF.

You're basically saying that Jimmy G has proven that he can be an effective Game manager in this system and right now Baker Mayfield is not even doing that.

I just think one QB is clearly better and an upgrade at the position that won't break the bank or require significant assets.

I'm not here to knock Jimmy Garoppolo.

 

[Vee-Rex]

I couldn't believe it when I looked it up but Jimmy G was 12th in QBR in 2019, and 7th in 2021... He's currently second in the league in EPA+CPOE on 3rd and 4th downs, and 2nd over the last three years, and 12th in EPA+CPOE in total over the last three years and 6th this year..

The rankings are a bit weird this year. I don't know why but QB play across the league is lower than normal. Pretty sure the average QBR is muuuuuch lower than previous years. He's 7th (or 8th depending on the source) in QBR this year, but if he had the exact same season last year he'd be tied for 23rd (w/Goff). Below guys like Trubisky, Ben, Daniel Jones. He'd be ranked 15th in 2019 and 17th in 2018. So he's actually playing worse this year than he usually does. 2020 Baker (in terms of QBR) is #1 in the entire 2021 league. That's how much lower the play has been overall.

This year is just weird in terms of QBR, and probably the same for EPA and CPOE. He's having an okay year and when he's rolling, he's a slightly above average QB. But I'm not blowing up the QB position for him. Even at his best he hasn't put together a year like 2020 Baker and being injury prone doesn't help.

Good dude, decent player, but nah.

 

[Los216]

The rankings are a bit weird this year. I don't know why but QB play across the league is lower than normal. Pretty sure the average QBR is muuuuuch lower than previous years. He's 7th (or 8th depending on the source) in QBR this year, but if he had the exact same season last year he'd be tied for 23rd (w/Goff). Below guys like Trubisky, Ben, Daniel Jones. He'd be ranked 15th in 2019 and 17th in 2018. So he's actually playing worse this year than he usually does. 2020 Baker (in terms of QBR) is #1 in the entire 2021 league. That's how much lower the play has been overall.

This year is just weird in terms of QBR, and probably the same for EPA and CPOE. He's having an okay year and when he's rolling, he's a slightly above average QB. But I'm not blowing up the QB position for him. Even at his best he hasn't put together a year like 2020 Baker and being injury prone doesn't help.

Good dude, decent player, but nah.

Compare Jimmy G's Super Bowl season to Baker in 2020

 

[Malacogary]

A healthy NFL QB would be an upgrade.

Compare Jimmy G's Super Bowl season to Baker in 2020

With smothering defense and multi-headed running attack? Best all-round TE in the game at the height of his powers?

 

[Vee-Rex]

Compare Jimmy G's Super Bowl season to Baker in 2020

Worse.

Jimmy G had a higher completion% and thus a higher rating, but that's it. Worse INT%. Worse TD-INT ratio. Worse QBR. Worse EPA. Worse sack%. Worse CAY/Cmp. Worse IAY/PA. He took checkdowns that led to a higher completion percentage and the 49ers defense carried them to the Superbowl. That's it.

Edit: I'm not trashing Jimmy G. He's an average QB, above-average at his best. But he's injury prone and doesn't have the arm to go downfield consistently. There's a reason why Shanahan drafted a strong-armed Lance to open up more possibilities on offense. Without an elite defense I don't think Garoppolo would take us far.

Let's aim higher.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

Y'all don't remember the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl with Jimmy G throwing 8 passes in the NFCCG?

He got Trent Dilfer'd to a Super Bowl.