Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[The Human Q-Tip]

I get what you're saying, but I'd counter by asking...

What's more relevant to the 2020 Cleveland Browns? Things Baker did two years and two head coaches ago when teams had very limited NFL tape on him?

That's certainly one important question. I'd start off saying this -- teams had plenty of tape on Mayfield by the mid-point of his first season. Despite teams having progressively even more tape on him as that season wore on, his performance generally stayed the same or got better. And of course, they had more tape of him in that system than they do in this system right now. Yet, he excelled.

Or the things he's doing right now now that the NFL has a much better idea of what he's capable of?

"Right now" includes being only 3 regular season games into a brand new new system, with a new HC and new OC, a massively truncated offseason devoid of the usual minicamps, and without a single preseason game for him to begin getting used to the new system.

Given all that, I'd say the latter half of 2018 provides a better measure of what Baker ultimately can do than the first three games of this season. However...we could probably go around all day on this, and not really know which one of us is more correct/less wrong. It might be you.

Truth is, by the time we get into the second half of this season, the "new system" excuse will be far less valid, and by the end of the season, we'll have a much, much better idea of Baker's likely trajectory moving forward. And it really won't matter who was right or wrong. We'll all either be happy that he showed consistent improvement, or bummed that he didn't. And "I told you so" will be pretty irrelevant either way!

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

That’s good - if he’s not costing us wins then he can “learn on the job.” It’s the best option we have, and frankly, is overall a pretty good option.

Exactly my thoughts as well. The running game will buy us more time to get everyone -- especially Baker -- more comfortable in this offense. It's pretty much a guarantee that we're going to know a lot more about Baker moving forward by the time this season is over.

 

[Wrathe]

Which is a stupid thing to say because during Baker's rookie season, we won games because of him. I've said it till I am blue in the face - Baker has all the tools to be a guy that can win you a gritty game with his arm. He has touch, he has above average arm strength, and he's mobile enough to make something out of nothing. He needs to work on his mental game, which I hope isn't fractured to the point of no return due to the ineptitude the FO exhibited the last two years. Leaning on a strong running game while he can work on small things to get better is the perfect scenario for Mayfield right now. This season will tell us a lot IMO.

Winning solves everything. He'll gain that confidence back and get comfortable the more we win.

 

[CBBI]

That's certainly one important question. I'd start off saying this -- teams had plenty of tape on Mayfield by the mid-point of his first season. Despite teams having progressively even more tape on him as that season wore on, his performance generally stayed the same or got better. And of course, they had more tape of him in that system than they do in this system right now. Yet, he excelled.

"Right now" includes being only 3 regular season games into a brand new new system, with a new HC and new OC, a massively truncated offseason devoid of the usual minicamps, and without a single preseason game for him to begin getting used to the new system.

Given all that, I'd say the latter half of 2018 provides a better measure of what Baker ultimately can do than the first three games of this season. However...we could probably go around all day on this, and not really know which one of us is more correct/less wrong. Truth is, by the time we get into the second half of this season, the "new system" excuse will be far less valid, and by the end of the season, we'll have a much, much better idea of Baker's likely trajectory moving forward. And it really won't matter who was right or wrong. We'll all either be happy that he showed consistent improvement, or bummed that he didn't. And "I told you so" will be pretty irrelevant either way!

I guess my point is, the vast majority of things we all saw Mayfield really struggle with last year are actually still problems this year. Those include...

-Severe struggles against pressure
-A noticeable decrease in clean pocket accuracy from 2018
-Lack of recognition of underneath zone coverage
-Slow processing away from read 1 to read 2 and beyond

These issues all still very much exist to my untrained eyes, but they're being masked by a much improved offensive line (Baker's sack % is down from 7% to 4.5%), a really effective offensive scheme that greatly emphasizes the run (58/42 pass to run in 2019 compared to 54/46 run to pass in 2020) and a play caller that has, for all intents and purposes, put training wheels on his QB and given him very few full field "dangerous" reads.

Baker Mayfield isn't turning the ball over much which is dramatic improvement over last year. But so far, and there's still plenty of time for this to change, I just haven't seen a whole lot of tangible improvement in his game through three weeks outside of Stefanski's scheming him into much safer reads and throws.

He looks like the same QB to me. Just with better pieces around him on the OL and at TE, plus a much better guy calling the plays.

 

[daddywags]

After the almost interception was knocked away by OBJ the camera swung back to Mayfield for a couple seconds and I thought I saw him make a hand gesture across his body as though he had expected OBJ to run the pattern to cross in front of that defender rather than streak behind him. I'm not sure it would have made a difference (or even been possible), but did anyone else notice that?

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

After the almost interception was knocked away by OBJ the camera swung back to Mayfield for a couple seconds and I thought I saw him make a hand gesture across his body as though he had expected OBJ to run the pattern to cross in front of that defender rather than streak behind him. I'm not sure it would have made a difference (or even been possible), but did anyone else notice that?

I didn't notice Baker doing that, but I noticed that when the camera zoomed out and showed OBJ's route.

OBJ 100% made the wrong move by just lazily going behind the DB. Looked like he assumed the play was dead.

Nice job hustling to break up the pick though

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

I guess my point is, the vast majority of things we all saw Mayfield really struggle with last year are actually still problems this year. Those include...

-Severe struggles against pressure
-A noticeable decrease in clean pocket accuracy from 2018
-Lack of recognition of underneath zone coverage
-Slow processing away from read 1 to read 2 and beyond

These issues all still very much exist to my untrained eyes, but they're being masked by a much improved offensive line (Baker's sack % is down from 7% to 4.5%), a really effective offensive scheme that greatly emphasizes the run (58/42 pass to run in 2019 compared to 54/46 run to pass in 2020) and a play caller that has, for all intents and purposes, put training wheels on his QB and given him very few full field "dangerous" reads.

Baker Mayfield isn't turning the ball over much which is dramatic improvement over last year. But so far, and there's still plenty of time for this to change, I just haven't seen a whole lot of tangible improvement in his game through three weeks outside of Stefanski's scheming him into much safer reads and throws.

He looks like the same QB to me. Just with better pieces around him on the OL and at TE, plus a much better guy calling the plays.

I think we need to understand that 2019 probably lowered his ceiling a little bit. He has developed some really bad habits that teams can key on and I'm not sure are really that fixable. He folds under pressure and constantly wants to break the pocket. He doesn't do any sort of QB pocket moves to reset his feet, it's just him immediately breaking the pocket.

That being said, 2019 also allowed bad habits that ARE fixable manifest into his game. It's going to take more than an abbreviated offseason where he had to learn a new system before he works on the other things, not to mention more than 3 games. I think Stefanski realizes this and has since simplified the offense to give Baker a crash course on the offense Stefanski and AVP want to run.

The good news is that the Cowboys defense is really terrible and the Browns should gash them in the running game the whole day Sunday. Keep allowing Baker to PA and roll out and let the Browns lean on their great offensive line. I wouldn't expect Baker to make any meaningful break out this year, but the team should be better and we should have some hope for the future. Which is where I am right now with Baker. The arm is still clearly great and I've seen him understand the concepts the Browns want and even make good pre snap reads. By the end of the year, if we see less panic and see him fully grasping the offense, he should be getting to the open guys on reads 3 and 4.

 

[Los216]

I didn't notice Baker doing that, but I noticed that when the camera zoomed out and showed OBJ's route.

OBJ 100% made the wrong move by just lazily going behind the DB. Looked like he assumed the play was dead.

Nice job hustling to break up the pick though

On the replay i looked like OBJ was already behind the DB and when he looked u for the ball and saw that it was underthrown he broke from the route to break up the play. I thought the ball should've been thrown to the back of the Endzone and make OBJ go for it.

 

[Lee]

You don't have to be confident but he has already made several huge 3rd down and 4th down plays when we needed them most. The 3rd and 12'ish to OBJ, the 4th and 7 to Hooper, the 4th down vs. the Bengals to Landry, etc... but those plays get ignored by the fans.

I agree, we see what we want to see sometimes when it comes to sports. The Browns have converted almost 50% of the third downs the last 2 weeks (10 for 22). He has made some big plays, the game plan didn't call for him to make play after play, but when asked he has come through. Last week, we were down 4 in the 4th and lost all momentum. Baker led a drive that went 75 yards capped off by a TD pass to Bryant. After that our running attack took over and he didn't need to do much, but he did have a very big 3rd down pass completion on the 2nd to last drive. Last drive they just ran, ran ran, kick fg to run clock.

The first game wasn't good, no one looked good, but that was one game, new coach, new system, weird times, hopefully if we play it again the game is closer, we will see, we do play them again, but Ravens might be best team in the NFL this year.

 

[Lee]

I get what you're saying, but I'd counter by asking...

What's more relevant to the 2020 Cleveland Browns? Things Baker did two years and two head coaches ago when teams had very limited NFL tape on him? Or the things he's doing right now now that the NFL has a much better idea of what he's capable of?

I don't think he's a lost cause by any means. If Mayfield can cut his turnovers in half, that alone would mean a couple of extra wins.

I'm just not nearly as optimistic as I once was that he's definitely going to be an elite QB. I see most of the same problems he really struggled with last year that are being masked by a much better offensive scheme and a better OL.

We will see, he isn't being asked to do much but in 3 games he has thrown 2 picks. He is on pace for 11 picks and 27 touchdowns and a bit over 3,000 yards. Last year Cousins threw 26/6 for 3600 yards. Now without Stefanski they are 0-3 and Cousins has thrown 5 td's and 6 picks. I am not sure Baker is Elite, but he has been good, and with an elite running attack that is good enough to win.

What have we had 30 QB's? Baker looks like the best QB since the return. I know that isn't saying allot, but the fact he has thrown only 2 picks in 3 games is growth and Stefanski has only been working with him 3 games and a joke of an offseason. I am not ready to say he is the next Brees, but right now he looks better than Cousins and that is saying something right?

 

[CBBI]

We will see, he isn't being asked to do much but in 3 games he has thrown 2 picks. He is on pace for 11 picks and 27 touchdowns and a bit over 3,000 yards. Last year Cousins threw 26/6 for 3600 yards. Now without Stefanski they are 0-3 and Cousins has thrown 5 td's and 6 picks. I am not sure Baker is Elite, but he has been good, and with an elite running attack that is good enough to win.

What have we had 30 QB's? Baker looks like the best QB since the return. I know that isn't saying allot, but the fact he has thrown only 2 picks in 3 games is growth and Stefanski has only been working with him 3 games and a joke of an offseason. I am not ready to say he is the next Brees, but right now he looks better than Cousins and that is saying something right?

The decrease in turnovers is very important, no arguments there. Like I said earlier in the thread, if Baker cuts his turnovers in half, the Browns could easily win 1-3 more games than last year on that alone.

But Mayfield is also 31st in passing yards per game and 26th in passing yards per attempt though three weeks. It's been a very safe and conservative passing attack thus far. Stefanski hasn't shown a lot of trust in Baker and hasn't really put him in a position to take many risks or even make multiple reads.

And look... against the dregs of the league, it's already proven that a 60/40 run to pass split can work. Both wins have followed that exact formula essentially.

I just don't know how much upside the offense has overall if the QB can't consistently make plays down the field with his arm. I'm optimistic things will open up as time goes on and as Mayfield gets more comfortable.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I guess my point is, the vast majority of things we all saw Mayfield really struggle with last year are actually still problems this year. Those include...

-Severe struggles against pressure
-A noticeable decrease in clean pocket accuracy from 2018
-Lack of recognition of underneath zone coverage
-Slow processing away from read 1 to read 2 and beyond

That may be because he simply will never be good at reading defenses and going through his progressions....

Or it also could be because last year, and through the first 3 games of his year, he is a QB who is not comfortable in the offense he's running.

Baker Mayfield isn't turning the ball over much which is dramatic improvement over last year. But so far, and there's still plenty of time for this to change, I just haven't seen a whole lot of tangible improvement in his game through three weeks....

If you added up the number of offensive snaps a QB normally gets in a full offseason - minicamps, training camp, 7 on 7's, scrimmages, preseason games, etc., my guess is that Baker still hasn't yet reached that total for this season, in this system. And throughout the highly truncated training camp we did have, we were hearing he was not yet comfortable. Well...that's how he looked when the season started.

I do think he improved significantly from week one to week 2 simply in terms of accuracy. Fewer bad balls against the Skins despite their much better d-line. I don't think it's reasonable to expect game to game quantum leaps

Josh Allen is finally looking like a legit QB after three years in the same system. It just feels like a rushed judgement to me with respect to Baker when you put the coaching/scheme changes into the mix.

 

[Lee]

The decrease in turnovers is very important, no arguments there. Like I said earlier in the thread, if Baker cuts his turnovers in half, the Browns could easily win 1-3 more games than last year on that alone.

But Mayfield is also 31st in passing yards per game and 26th in passing yards per attempt though three weeks. It's been a very safe and conservative passing attack thus far. Stefanski hasn't shown a lot of trust in Baker and hasn't really put him in a position to take many risks or even make multiple reads.

And look... against the dregs of the league, it's already proven that a 60/40 run to pass split can work. Both wins have followed that exact formula essentially.

I just don't know how much upside the offense has overall if the QB can't consistently make plays down the field with his arm. I'm optimistic things will open up as time goes on and as Mayfield gets more comfortable.

Take away the Baltimore game, a game against a top 3 defense, he was 16 for 23 ironically in both other games for 4 touchdowns and 1 pick and a 8.2 yards per attempt. I know that is cherry picking to a degree, but that 8.2 would be 10th in the league per attempt 70% completion percentage which is 11th. Basically he didn't look good against Baltimore, his first game in a new system, but he has actually been good in the other 2 games, elite, no,.... but good.

In the last 2 games I personally see growth. He has been sacked twice, has thrown some good balls and only thrown maybe 3 really bad balls. He is a 3rd year qb on his 4th coach, that is insane. I have been pleased with what I have seen from him the last 2 games. I think we are overthinking it right now because we are so QB starved for the last 21 years.

Dallas has a bad defense but an elite offense, we will run allot for ball control,. but Baker will need to make some plays for us to compete, lets just see if which Baker shows up, week 1 Baker or the Baker from the last 2 weeks. Last 2 weeks Baker throws 32 TD's, 8 picks for 3,000 yards and 70% completion percentage.

Just saying we should be pleased with the progress, he isn't perfect, but no QB is perfect. He has improved greatly and won 2 games in a row because of it.

 

[CBBI]

 

[CBBI]

Fun with numbers.

Baker Mayfield through three games...

From 11 Personnel: 24/37, 64.8%, 312 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 107.0 Passer Rating, 8.43 YPA
From 12 Personnel: 19/30, 63.3%, 187 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 91.9 Passer Rating, 6.23 YPA
From 21 Personnel: 3/7, 42.8%, 19 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 50.3 Passer Rating 2.71 YPA
From 13 Personnel: 2/5, 40.0%, 15 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 8.3 Passer rating, 3.00 YPA
From 22 Personnel: 4/5, 80.0%, 30 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 91.7 Passer Rating, 6.00 YPA
From 23 Personnel: 1/1, 100.0%, 1 yard, 1 TD, 0 INT, 118.8 Passer Rating, 1.00 YPA

With Play Action: 15/26, 57.7%, 177 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 88.1 Passer Rating, 6.81 YPA
Without Play Action: 38/59, 64.4%, 387 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 93.0 Passer Rating, 6.56 YPA

On 1st down: 15/25, 60.0%, 142 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 89.1 passer rating, 5.68 YPA
On 2nd down: 23/31, 74.2%, 225 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 113.0 passer rating, 7.26 YPA
On 3rd down: 13/26, 50.0%, 167 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 67.3 passer rating, 6.42 YPA
On 4th down: 2/3, 66.7%, 29 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 97.9 passer rating, 9.67 YPA