Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[spydy13]

Baker overall played well in the first half. Guys were open and he was finding them.

Things got a little hairy in the second half, the first interception was really bad especially. That said... if Jarvis doesn’t have those two stone cold drops that both probably go for first downs, perhaps the narrative on his second half changes a bit.

I know I’m being hard on the guy, but five games into this season and I’m still just not that confident in his ability to process what happening in front of him quick enough to be an elite QB. Baker’s ability to diagnose what the coverage is and when his guys are going to come open is still just too slow for me. He’s often a half beat or a full beat late on throws which just continues to show a lack of anticipation and trust in his eyes.

I hope it will improve with more experience and comfort in the system, but I’m not super confident in it.

And to be clear, Baker lacking those things doesn’t make him a bad quarterback. Far from it. You can still win games with a QB like that, it just requires good coaching (which the Browns appear to have) and good surrounding pieces (which the Browns definitely have).

I just think the slow processing and lack of anticipation may be what ultimately keeps Baker from breaking into the truly elite Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers stratosphere.

What's crazy about this is that was one of his best traits in his rookie years. He would throw to guys before they even broke their route. I can only assume that he built up a lot of bad habits last year with bad coaching and a bad o-line in front of him. Hopefully he can regain it with time.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

I think he's kind of the modern day Phillip Rivers. He can pick you apart and have a truly great game, but you know that he's going to just take throws that are totally stupid. Baker is a little too turnover happy than I'd like, and he needs to learn how to throw over the line without airmailing all of his passes from the pocket, but he is so accurate and his arm talent is obvious.

I don't think it's worth it to get rid of him when his bad habits are all fixable.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

What expectation? Nobody is saying "He has to do X right now"

I'm simply laying out where he was, where he is, and where he can improve to.

Okay, then I'll just say that if anyone else expect Baker to be at this point right now:

....a QB who innately knows that guy is wide open on the other half of the field with nobody around him. The great QB's just by looking at the way the play goes, knows that all of the defenders abandoned that area where one of his options are, and get that ball out quicker than Baker did.

....they have unreasonable expectations.

 

[daddywags]

Where I would like Baker to be is a QB who innately knows that guy is wide open on the other half of the field with nobody around him. The great QB's just by looking at the way the play goes, knows that all of the defenders abandoned that area where one of his options are, and get that ball out quicker than Baker did.

To me you just described Brian Sipe. He wasn't very big and didn't have a canon for an arm but he seemed to always know where the open guy was at.

 

[CBBI]

BTT = Big Time Throws
TWP = Turnover Worthy Plays

 

[Lee]

My counter to this would be that I’m not convinced more experience in this offense or any offense is going to help Mayfield develop more anticipation.

Basically right now if he doesn’t see it open, he doesn’t throw it.

More experience should absolutely help him better recognize coverages, but anticipation is like accuracy to me - you either have it naturally or you don’t - and Baker just doesn’t really show it.

The great QBs anticipate where their targets are going to come open based on the coverage and throw to those spots accordingly.

Baker doesn’t throw to spots right now. He throws to players once he SEES them come open.

I don't agree at all, he threw some very tight throws to OBJ and Landry. Remember the one catch around the guys head? That was Baker rookie year, gunning the ball in there to receivers he trusts. He also threw a tight one to Hooper.

But if Baker doesn't see a turned back or back shoulder opportunity or a low ball opportunity, he is waiting for them to be open. That is good QB'ing. He threw a really bad INT yesterday in the first half, that has to be cleaned up. He completed 57% of his passes yesterday, not good enough. To be where he needs to be, 4 more completions, so those 2 drops and 2 more.

He is getting there, he really isn't far. I really liked the tight throws, I liked staying in the pocket, even with the happy feet, both are showing growth. The first half he looked really good before the Colts made some adjustments and we countered by running more. Good game plan, good growth form Baker, and honestly in this game, Bakers arm really helped and lead us to a victory as we built the lead in the first half behind his throwing.

 

[CBBI]

I don't agree at all, he threw some very tight throws to OBJ and Landry. Remember the one catch around the guys head? That was Baker rookie year, gunning the ball in there to receivers he trusts. He also threw a tight one to Hooper.

But if Baker doesn't see a turned back or back shoulder opportunity or a low ball opportunity, he is waiting for them to be open. That is good QB'ing. He threw a really bad INT yesterday in the first half, that has to be cleaned up. He completed 57% of his passes yesterday, not good enough. To be where he needs to be, 4 more completions, so those 2 drops and 2 more.

He is getting there, he really isn't far. I really liked the tight throws, I liked staying in the pocket, even with the happy feet, both are showing growth. The first half he looked really good before the Colts made some adjustments and we countered by running more. Good game plan, good growth form Baker, and honestly in this game, Bakers arm really helped and lead us to a victory as we built the lead in the first half behind his throwing.

No disrespect, but I just don't feel you're correct in this case at all.

The throw to Landry was a bad throw. Check out the screenshot. The only reason this ended up being a "tight window" is because Baker was late coming off his first read, late delivering the ball to his open second read AND he under threw the pass with no pressure anywhere near him.

That's a linebacker chasing Landry. If Mayfield reads this coverage quicker and let's the ball go right here, he can lead Landry 4-5 yards left of the hash without much trouble. If he does this, it's not only an easy completion, but Landry could possibly catch it in stride and turn up field.

Instead, Mayfield was slow to process and ended up holding the ball for 3 more strides. Landry to his full credit made a spectacular play to convert the first down, but it's little things like this that separate the good from the elite. This play ended up being much more difficult than it needed to be because Mayfield was too slow, too late and threw a bad pass.



As far as the deep shot to Beckham, yes it was a tight window, but I suspect it was only a tight window because Baker allowed it to be by being late with the throw.

We don't have the All-22 film yet, so I can't 100% confirm this to be the case, but I have a feeling Mayfield had Beckham open earlier and his hesitation to pull the trigger is what allowed the safety to get over and make the play closer than it probably should have been.

 

[Vee-Rex]

One thing I want to see better from Baker: better touch on the designed, floater/overthetop throws. I felt like his rookie year he was putting them on the money. He overthrew OBJ in the endzone on one of those. He overthrew Hooper on another. When it's a 3-step drop and you know you're making that kind of throw, I'd like to see better accuracy.

But then many of his balls are overthrown nowadays anyway. I think he's gotten to be so afraid of having a ball tipped at the line or from underneath coverage that he's letting the balls sail. I hope he can improve on this.

 

[DJTJ]

No disrespect, but I just don't feel you're correct in this case at all.

The throw to Landry was a bad throw. Check out the screenshot. The only reason this ended up being a "tight window" is because Baker was late coming off his first read, late delivering the ball to his open second read AND he under threw the pass with no pressure anywhere near him.

That's a linebacker chasing Landry. If Mayfield reads this coverage quicker and let's the ball go right here, he can lead Landry 4-5 yards left of the hash without much trouble. If he does this, it's not only an easy completion, but Landry could possibly catch it in stride and turn up field.

Instead, Mayfield was slow to process and ended up holding the ball for 3 more strides. Landry to his full credit made a spectacular play to convert the first down, but it's little things like this that separate the good from the elite. This play ended up being much more difficult than it needed to be because Mayfield was too slow, too late and threw a bad pass.

View attachment 4206

As far as the deep shot to Beckham, yes it was a tight window, but I suspect it was only a tight window because Baker allowed it to be by being late with the throw.

We don't have the All-22 film yet, so I can't 100% confirm this to be the case, but I have a feeling Mayfield had Beckham open earlier and his hesitation to pull the trigger is what allowed the safety to get over and make the play closer than it probably should have been.

Nailed it, great post. Baker wasn’t good yesterday, even in the first half. Ridiculously bailed out by stupid catches. Putting balls in these spots isn’t a good thing.

Baker desperately needs to learn an easy 5 is 100 times more valuable then any manufactured crisis. And he desperately needs to improve in the pocket. It’s infuriating to watch him, knowing very well that he’s never going to be the guy winning you games, but will be the guy who might cost you a few.

 

[CBBI]

Here's the pass to Beckham on the All-22. This ball comes out way too late.

Right here at this screenshot, the outside corner is completely beat and the safety is actually going the wrong direction and just starting to turn around.

If Baker pulls the trigger right here and hits Beckham roughly in the middle of the hash marks in stride, OBJ may be able to breeze right by the safety who wouldn't have the best angle.



Instead Mayfield waits six more full strides and doesn't even release the ball until Beckham is in the *middle* of the hash marks, which gives the deep safety ample time to recover and get in a position to make a play on the football.



Much like the Landry play, Beckham deserves a ton of credit for making an absolutely spectacular catch, but he never should have been in that position in the first place.

If Mayfield can anticipate his man is going to be open versus needing to SEE he's actually open, he can fire that ball in there quicker and gain a lot yardage, possibly even a touchdown.

 

[CBBI]

Here's the pass to Beckham on the All-22. This ball comes out way too late.

Right here at this screenshot, the outside corner is completely beat and the safety is actually going the wrong direction and just starting to turn around.

If Baker pulls the trigger right here and hits Beckham roughly in the middle of the hash marks in stride, OBJ may be able to breeze right by the safety who wouldn't have the best angle.

View attachment 4211

Instead Mayfield waits six more full strides and doesn't even release the ball until Beckham is in the *middle* of the hash marks, which gives the deep safety ample time to recover and get in a position to make a play on the football.

View attachment 4212

Much like the Landry play, Beckham deserves a ton of credit for making an absolutely spectacular catch, but he never should have been in that position in the first place.

If Mayfield can anticipate his man is going to be open versus needing to SEE he's actually open, he can fire that ball in there quicker and gain a lot yardage, possibly even a touchdown.

Here it is from the endzone angle. If the ball comes out right here and hits Beckham in stride in the middle of the hashes, is the safety able to make that play 1 on 1 in the open field?

 

[6.19.2016]

BTT = Big Time Throws
TWP = Turnover Worthy Plays

Leaving aside that turnover worthy plays are not necessarily turnovers, and that "big time throws" is not only subjective/arbitrary but also I'd be fine with successful dinks and dunks, I don't see how the 2019-to-2020 trend of BTT to TWP fits with the downward graph symbol?! Same with the next tweet about clean pockets, where his passer rating made a whopping drop from 77 to....76.8.

If we're going to start cherrypicking, he had better Footballoutsiders stats than Lamar this week.

 

[CBBI]

Leaving aside that turnover worthy plays are not necessarily turnovers, and that "big time throws" is not only subjective/arbitrary but also I'd be fine with successful dinks and dunks, I don't see how the 2019-to-2020 trend of BTT to TWP fits with the downward graph symbol?! Same with the next tweet about clean pockets, where his passer rating made a whopping drop from 77 to....76.8.

If we're going to start cherrypicking, he had better Footballoutsiders stats than Lamar this week.

Feels like the point they’re trying to get across is that Mayfield is playing about the same/slightly worse than last year and the Browns are 4-1 because the talent around him (coaching and personnel) is a lot better.

On one hand it can be taken as a positive, because it means the Browns are able to win games without great QB play and appear to have another gear to hit offensively tied into their QBs improvement.

On the other hand, it means despite the noticeable training wheels the coaching staff has put on Mayfield and the dramatically improved talent around him, he personally hasn’t really played much better than last year. Even though his counting stats would suggest he has.

 

[Vee-Rex]

Feels like the point they’re trying to get across is that Mayfield is playing about the same/slightly worse than last year and the Browns are 4-1 because the talent around him (coaching and personnel) is a lot better.

On one hand it can be taken as a positive, because it means the Browns are able to win games without great QB play and appear to have another gear to hit offensively tied into their QBs improvement.

On the other hand, it means despite the noticeable training wheels the coaching staff has put on Mayfield and the dramatically improved talent around him, he personally hasn’t really played much better than last year. Even though his counting stats would suggest he has.

It could also mean that maybe he wasn't as awful last year as the world made it out to be. He was a victim of horrific coaching, bad-luck plays, and a porous offensive line.

I also wonder if the passing grade is influenced by total yardage, which would be unfair for him this year since he's passing less overall. I feel like his play is moreso in between 2018 and 2019, but that's just me.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Feels like the point they’re trying to get across is that Mayfield is playing about the same/slightly worse than last year and the Browns are 4-1 because the talent around him (coaching and personnel) is a lot better.

The fact that we won five games last year despite absolutely horrendous coaching and discipline tells me the talent was there last year too. Freddie was just too in over his head to get the most out of it. The team is more talented this year, to be sure, but the key difference is that the coaching and discipline are there now. We're not giving the other team over a hundred yards a game in penalties. We're calling smart plays that take advantage of the personnel we have. We're maximizing what we can get out of Mayfield in his current state.

Mayfield needs to improve, and I'm hopeful he will. But I think it's just too early in the year to really expect that much of it from him. As I've said before, I think next fall will be the real test for Mayfield, and it'll be when we find out whether he's our guy or not. We need to give him a full offseason with this coaching staff to work to correct all the bad habits last year created. I'd also like to see improvements as the year progresses too, of course.