Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[6.19.2016]

I wish Jerry Jones was dumb enough to trade Dak for Baker. Maybe we can sell him on some feel good Texas homecoming story.

Um, only reason Jerruh would even trade Dak in the first place, is if he were severely damaged goods, and thought he could sneak it by team physicals.

I remember this same discussion about Andrew Luck - itself a sort of homecoming given his family - and I was astonished by how few people recognized it would be a "buyer beware" situation.

And this was with my not knowing that he was a year away from walking away from the game at the time, even though he always had a "lots of of interests outside of football" knock against him.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

If you think guys like OBJ and Landry will continue to play the good soldier riding it out with Baker playing like this you’re fooling yourself. Maybe they make it through this year, but they won’t last until the end of next season if the QB play stays the same gets worse

This is an interesting point, but honestly I think this is going to be a problem with this offense even with a different QB

Like there’s a pretty good chance neither guy hits 1,000 yards this year which means extremely unlikely for a pro bowl selection and relevance starting to fade. Everyone always says winning is all that matters, but for a ton of players that’s clear as day not true. Will be interesting to see how they handle being in such a run dominant offense

 

[Sebastian]

He didn't play well today.

And his mistakes are the same ones stemming from a deficiency in being able to read defenses.

That and his inability to trust his line.

He will never improve unless he masters both.

I read somewhere he didn't avail himself of working with folks to improve his mental acuity. That was probably a mistake. How or why he has not addressed this since his rookie year is odd. What a waste.

Needs to work on it and improve or they're stuck with a one-dimensional QB.

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

This is an interesting point, but honestly I think this is going to be a problem with this offense even with a different QB

Like there’s a pretty good chance neither guy hits 1,000 yards this year which means extremely unlikely for a pro bowl selection and relevance starting to fade. Everyone always says winning is all that matters, but for a ton of players that’s clear as day not true. Will be interesting to see how they handle being in such a run dominant offense

I know some will disagree with me here which is fine, but I don’t think the way we’ve won to start the year is very sustainable. We’ve been winning by forcing a crazy amount of turnovers, building big leads early, and holding on for dear life. That was with Baker not turning the ball over. If that doesn’t continue, we start losing more-and-more games, and they aren’t putting up numbers, OBJ and Landry will definitely get pissed.

It’s pretty apparent that once we fall behind by about 10 points or more, either Stefanski, Baker, or both have little-to-no faith in Baker having the game in his hands. It’s like if we don’t get an early lead, we just get buried.

Point is, I believe we’re only so run heavy because the staff doesn’t have faith in Baker. It’s not the system, because as recent as 2018 the Vikings had two 1,000 yd WRs. We’re always going to be a run heavy team until Baker becomes a better passer or we find someone who is.

 

[MRMsix6]

Next.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

Not necessarily with our cap space. We’ve been maintaining cap room with the idea we’d use it to re-sign players, one of which is Baker. If we aren’t re-signing Baker, we have the space to sign someone else without it affecting much of anything. Plus, if you’re advocating for Baker, his 5th year option would pay him $25+ mill as is. If you wait too long to act on a QB, the cost of not acting likely outweighs the cap impact. This offense has the talent to win now with the right QB.

If you think guys like OBJ and Landry will continue to play the good soldier riding it out with Baker playing like this you’re fooling yourself. Maybe they make it through this year, but they won’t last until the end of next season if the QB play stays the same gets worse

The salary cap, the way the Browns have managed it, does not have the space to add Dak or someone else.

The Browns, with current estimations on an NFL cap next year, might have about 30 million in space. Unless you are willing to gut the team and maybe say goodbye to Denzel Ward in the future, the cap space for a $40 mil a year QB isn't there for 2021.

 

[sportscoach]

I also felt Mayfield shouldn't have played today in my mind. I feel peeps are being to harsh on Mayfield. He has had a different coach and a different coordinator every single season in the pros. I wanna see how he finishes the season before I say one way or the other. He is also in likely the toughest division in football and still easily has a wild card spot for the playoffs. Lets see how he does in due time.

 

[Los216]

The salary cap, the way the Browns have managed it, does not have the space to add Dak or someone else.

The Browns, with current estimations on an NFL cap next year, might have about 30 million in space. Unless you are willing to gut the team and maybe say goodbye to Denzel Ward in the future, the cap space for a $40 mil a year QB isn't there for 2021.

Which every QB we get next year won’t be a $40M cap hit. The majority of their first two years are going to be converted into a signing bonus. The actual cap hit on a guy like Dak Prescott for example, if he signed like a 5 year $180M which averages at $36M per year he would more than likely get something like $140M guaranteed with $80M guaranteed at signing. His QB number wont have a real cap hit until like year 3 or 4. Those first two years are all signing bonus money.

Deshaun Watson just signed for 4yr/$156M. He got $110M guaranteed with $73M guaranteed at signing. His first year is all signing bonus money. You can actually adjust the contracts for QB every year and convert some of their guaranteed money to a signing bonus to lower you actual cap hit. This is how teams like The Rams are able to pay Goff, Donald, Ramsey, Woods, Kupp, and Higbee. Cash rules in The NFL. Cash is how teams minimize the impact of the salary cap.

 

[CBBI]

This is an interesting point, but honestly I think this is going to be a problem with this offense even with a different QB

Like there’s a pretty good chance neither guy hits 1,000 yards this year which means extremely unlikely for a pro bowl selection and relevance starting to fade. Everyone always says winning is all that matters, but for a ton of players that’s clear as day not true. Will be interesting to see how they handle being in such a run dominant offense

I do share your concerns. Wide receivers are often mercurial and want the football above all else. My hope is that both Beckham and Landry (and Hooper frankly) can all take solace in the fact they each got their huge second contract already, but it’s certainly no guarantee they won’t become disgruntled with the workload.

That said... while I do agree this scheme is designed to be run heavy, I definitely think Stefanski would call more pass plays if he had a QB he trusted.

Plus a better QB would be more efficient with his opportunities which would also lead to more overall stats for the skill guys as well.

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

So my r/Showerthoughts for this morning:

Is it possible that the reason Baker looked so good in 2018 is that A) The league had no tape on Baker and B) they didn’t really have an offensive system which made them tougher to scout and game plan for?

When Hue was canned, we essentially scrapped the offense and ran whatever the players wanted to run. I’d have to imagine this made the team significantly harder to game plan for as we were adding a lot of random shit to the playbook every week and opposing teams wouldn’t of had much tape on us to form a solid plan. The more I watch Baker play, the more I think the 2018 season was a mirage for a lot of different reasons.

 

[Los216]

So my r/Showerthoughts for this morning:

Is it possible that the reason Baker looked so good in 2018 is that A) The league had no tape on Baker and B) they didn’t really have an offensive system which made them tougher to scout and game plan for?

When Hue was canned, we essentially scrapped the offense and ran whatever the players wanted to run. I’d have to imagine this made the team significantly harder to game plan for as we were adding a lot of random shit to the playbook every week and opposing teams wouldn’t of had much tape on us to form a solid plan. The more I watch Baker play, the more I think the 2018 season was a mirage for a lot of different reasons.

His only really good games as a pro were in his rookie year.

 

[Ohio]

The blueprint is out on Baker and how to beat this team. Get an early lead, force Baker to throw more, send pressure and watch him crumble.

I think it's clear this Browns team is much better than they've been. A borderline playoff team that, based on the remaining schedule, should absolutely make the playoffs this year. As long as they keep winning the games they should, they will be there.

And that's great. However, looking forward, it's become abundantly clear there is a massive gap between "borderline playoff team" and contender. Right now, the difference looks to be on defense and at QB. Neither the defense nor Baker are even close to good enough right now to be a contender.

The defensive holes can be addressed rather easily in the draft and/or free agency. That's not too big of a concern moving forward.

However, Baker is a real problem right now. I think the comparisons to the Chiefs with Alex Smith or the Texans with Hoyer/Osweiler are spot on. Borderline playoff teams that were prevented from being a real contender by their QB. This is where the Browns stand right now. We'll see by years end if it gets any better for Baker, but I would not bet on it.

Much like the Chiefs & Texans did, the Browns absolutely need to be willing to move up on draft day for a franchise QB. We cannot ride out another season with below average QB play.

 

[browniebob]

Much like the Chiefs & Texans did, the Browns absolutely need to be willing to move up on draft day for a franchise QB. We cannot ride out another season with below average QB play.

I'm not very familiar with this year's QB crop. Outside of Lawrence and Fields (who I'm not sold on yet) are there any other QB's who look to be worth trading up for?

 

[I'mWithDan]

The blueprint is out on Baker and how to beat this team. Get an early lead, force Baker to throw more, send pressure and watch him crumble.

It is actually much simpler than that, tactically speaking:

Flood the middle of the field. That is really all good defenses do against him.

This does two things, it takes away quick in breaking routes (which Baker is actually pretty good throwing) and as a result, it creates a lot of protection problems for the OL.

The only pressure release to the above is a QB that can push the ball to the boundary or on occasion, burn you over top. The over the top is then thrown out because Baker is incapable of climbing the pocket. Against even minor pressure, he almost always flushes. When this happens, it compounds what the defense is doing. Suddenly, he is rolling out against a defense that has wash everywhere boxing him in. If he tries to throw it over the middle, it will likely be a turnover worthy play. So his options then become throw deep, which he is just not good at on the move or try to fit it in to the sideline to someone who is likely penned in.

You can see how we run in to so many bad plays on passing downs. Baker is being schemed by DC's to be forced to throw out or deep to be successful and his bad habits are immediately eliminating the deep throws (unnecessary pocket bails). So we are trying to now play pass offense against a DC / DB's who know we are most likely throwing to whatever boundary Baker is spazzing off to. QB's are going to get picked off a lot if 1. they are throwing in to the strength of the defense (like over the middle with how we are schemed against) or 2. when they throw late outside against DB's that are sitting on out breaking routes (because again, Baker's bad habits don't allow him to throw over the top).

 

[DJTJ]

I'm not very familiar with this year's QB crop. Outside of Lawrence and Fields (who I'm not sold on yet) are there any other QB's who look to be worth trading up for?

Yes; there could be five potential first round QBs.

Lawrence, Fields and Lance will likely go top ten. Trask and Wilson will probably go mid to late.

Had JaimeNewman played, he probably would have been the sixth.