See, here's the point of contention I have (and had back when it was actually happening). Fans of sports teams are prisoners of the moment. They take a bad performance and use it as the end-all be-all form of judgment. A player is typically only as good as his last game or even last play to some people.
People were down on Baker after his performance week 2 against the Bengals when he had about 2 awful passes (but shredded them otherwise). I think he had a great performance and I saw signs/hints of an improved Baker.
But it wasn't until the Colts game (especially the 1st half) when I was convinced he WAS BETTER and steadily improving. The way he dissected their zone defense, looking off defenders, timing his passes, footwork, accuracy, and pocket presence (stepping up) was a Baker I had never quite seen before. I didn't just watch the game, but watched the film of each pass three times. And this improvement was completely lost on people the very next week. It's why I was in this very thread arguing with people mentioning Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, and Dwayne Haskins.
Baker is going to have more 2+ INT games in his career. It's going to happen. But improvement is not linear. Sometimes you take two steps forward before taking one back. The Steelers game was an example of a well-prepared exotic defense that MANY good and exceptional QBs struggle against. Sometimes you get your ass beat by the Chessmaster, improve against others, get your ass beat by the Chessmaster, improve against others, etc... until suddenly you're not JUST getting your ass beat by the Chessmaster. Maybe you do well, or dominate, then do bad - but it happens in a way that you've improved enough to flip some of those performances into the other direction. No one is ever gonna dominate a good defense or even a bad one endlessly.
And then the bad weather games hit and the doubt in Baker suddenly reset... and I'm watching the film and just thinking, "Dude... he's balling." His decisions were precise and sound, and while he inexplicably took a dip in accuracy (he has never had real accuracy issues in his football career so I was kinda surprised to see people basically labeling him as inaccurate), I didn't any concerns at all.
TLDR: Maybe from your perspective he looked like the same skittish/rattled QB at the time, and that no one could have realistically expected this level of improvement. But that's objectively untrue for me. I thought he made some mistakes and struggled with pressure against Pittsburgh week 6, but I never thought he was "the same" QB we saw last year. I had already witnessed massive improvements and knew a bad week or 2 doesn't mean much. And I expected it to show.
Very good post.
I have some counterpoints.
Mayfield was very good in weeks 2, 3 and 4 from a QB rating/QBR/YPA perspective, but I don't think his actual play was as good as his numbers in any of those games. The Browns were extremely conservative with their play calling in the passing game and went out of their way to limit Baker to a lot of very simple and quick one-read type of throws.
Very few times in the first month plus of the season did Stefanski and Van Pelt trust Baker to survey the field and make multiple reads even with what was at the time an A++ rushing attack and an offensive line that was totally healthy and has really held up pass protection wise all year.
They won 3 games in a row early in the year where Mayfield averaged 17 completions and 180 yards a game. I'm really glad they were able to win those games, but that's certainly not a sustainable way to have success.
In my personal opinion, the only truly impressive half Baker had in the first six games that showed real tangible improvement in the areas he was *really* lacking in 2019 (dropping his eyes against pressure, slow processing off his first read, a refusal to consistently climb the pocket being the three main ones) was the first half against the Colts and he immediately followed that up with a real stinker of a second half.
The Pittsburgh game, to me, was a culmination of what had been a 6 week build up. It was the first defense Mayfield had faced since Week 1 that A. consistently got pressure and B. combined that pressure with a lot of disguised coverages. The Colts have a really good defense, but almost exclusively play a cover 2 zone and almost never blitz, so it's a very different presnap defense to diagnose than early season Pittsburgh was.
At really no point (outside of 1st half Indy) in the first six weeks did I watch Mayfield and think "man the problems of last year have definitely improved a ton!" - If you did, then I tip my cap to you because I just really didn't see it at all.
It actually started to turn for me during the bad weather games, not that Bengals game which was essentially 7 on 7 between him and Burrow. His stats weren't very good in any of those bad weather games, but conditions were rotten and I thought a lot of the subtle things he was struggling with really started to improve. Particularly from a pocket presence standpoint.
Then once the weather cleared up, all bets were off. The running game wasn't as effective, but the coaching staff opened things up significantly in the passing game. Baker looked remarkably more comfortable and he's been awesome ever since.