Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[buzzdog]

There's only a few different ways things can go. The Browns at some point will need to make a decision on Mayfield, and either fish or cut bait.

Maybe Mayfield treads water or declines, and the Browns decide to just go in another direction. Maybe the Browns make a run at signing a big-name vet free agent.

Maybe Mayfield makes some improvements and adjustments and moves up the ladder towards higher ratings relative to other QBs. Maybe in that case the Browns sign him to a new contract and we scuffle on being a playoff contender but never get over the hump for the big one.

Maybe Mayfield somehow has the light come on and he reaches his full upside potential, and we win a Super Bowl or 2.

Any of these things could happen. Trying to extrapolate future probabilities and outcomes based on specific data points from past performances might foretell future results, or perhaps such extrapolations could be completely different from the future outcomes.

Bottom line is, based on my years of general experience in these matters, that nobody actually knows jack shit one way or the other no matter how much you try to crunch the stats. You could probably be as accurate at predicting future performance by throwing darts. Micro-analysis and attempts to interpret small statistical samples accrued over a wide variety of conditions and circumstances is, IMHO, kind of a pointless exercise.

I prefer to just root for the players on the team and hope they win. Whether I'm optimistic, pessimistic, or agnostic over future outcomes has zero effect on the eventual actual outcome. I guess it is anyone's choice how they choose to engage. I don't have any apprehensions about Mayfield's long term efficacy, he'll either succeed, fail, or something in between. I'm a fan of the team either way.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Bottom line is, based on my years of general experience in these matters, that nobody actually knows jack shit one way or the other no matter how much you try to crunch the stats. You could probably be as accurate at predicting future performance by throwing darts. Micro-analysis and attempts to interpret small statistical samples accrued over a wide variety of conditions and circumstances is, IMHO, kind of a pointless exercise.

Knows Jack shit? I think there is enough data out there if you have any interest in seeing it. It is possible you do not, which is different from it actually meaning something.

The reason passer rating, for example, is a pretty useful stat for looking in to future performance is that is correlated to win percentage. Which is the point of playing right? It is also a stat that is stable, so there aren’t wild fluctuations like TD% for example, that is reliant on a lot of factors like luck, play calling, etc. that are out of a players’ control. Lastly, it is also a stat that is really easy to calculate, which I think is helpful in situations like this, where it is a conversation between people that generally don’t have unlimited sets of data to work with or time to do something like QBR, which is inherently more complicated to spit out and has not been shown to be more predictive of future success.

So it is possible you aren’t the audience for any of this, as an individual person……but that doesn’t mean the data doesn’t mean anything.

 

[Vee-Rex]

Bottom line is, based on my years of general experience in these matters, that nobody actually knows jack shit one way or the other no matter how much you try to crunch the stats. You could probably be as accurate at predicting future performance by throwing darts. Micro-analysis and attempts to interpret small statistical samples accrued over a wide variety of conditions and circumstances is, IMHO, kind of a pointless exercise.

I prefer to just root for the players on the team and hope they win. Whether I'm optimistic, pessimistic, or agnostic over future outcomes has zero effect on the eventual actual outcome. I guess it is anyone's choice how they choose to engage. I don't have any apprehensions about Mayfield's long term efficacy, he'll either succeed, fail, or something in between. I'm a fan of the team either way.

Bro, this resonates so well with me.

If I were to present a business case to my employer with a narrative based on a stat crunch such as what we’ve done with Baker, they would laugh me out of the meeting.

What about this variable, or that variable? How many GWD were made after a failed one because the defense offered another opportunity? Or the average starting field position due to a turnover and/or special teams play for each of these “clutch” situations for every QB being compared? What is the most appropriate definition of “clutch” here and what is the optimal way to measure it? How are these impacted by coaching decisions? Can we quantify the value of coaching under these circumstances and accurately compare with others? Defense played against and THEIR quantified “clutch” rating for these scenarios? And if the sample size is small, every little variable is magnified. Does the weather play a role, and if so, how much of one does it play for each QB being compared? How do we quantify this? Refereeing impact and how do we quantify this for both terrible calls and missed calls? Injuries to the offense and opposing team for each QB being measured? Yadda yadda I could keep going.

I prefer to root, too. No matter how you view Baker, you can still support and rally behind him.

 

[PIP]

Nick Foles is purported to have a 10 inch dick.

If you recall Andy Daulton said he didn’t know how to use it tho…

 

[CBBI]

Bro,I prefer to root, too. No matter how you view Baker, you can still support and rally behind him.

This is where you lose me a little bit though. Because I don’t think anyone is actively rooting against Baker or not supporting him.

We just want more.

 

[Vee-Rex]

We just want more.

Yeah, I want more too. I guess it’s just a difference in mindset/approach on a week by week basis for some people. We’re all on different areas of the optimism/pessimism spectrum as well.

edit: I think the less optimistic people appear as if they’re not rooting as much, and the more optimistic people appear as if they don’t want more.

 

[The Oi]

This is where you lose me a little bit though. Because I don’t think anyone is actively rooting against Baker or not supporting him.

We just want more.

Rooting against him. And want less.

Mostly hoping it’ll culminate in a topless Emily Mayfield presser begging us for our sympathies for Baker, or something comparable.

 

[macbdog]

In Nick's case its like calling a fat guy tiny, but dont ask how i know.

My god how gigantic is it then???!!

 

[DirtyDan]

We have people here insisting that Odell is getting wide open on damn near every play and Baker is inexplicably missing him. In the Odell thread there was a decent all-22 breakdown of EVERY play that could have involved Odell. What I saw and what the commentator also saw was that on the VAST majority of the plays, Baker made the exact proper decision. There was only one clear time, and one other marginal time, where he should have thrown Odell's direction but didn't.

So I have to call bullshit on some of what is being said here.

The footage I posted had a few instances each game where Baker either:

1. Messed up a deep(s) throw down the field to OBJ so he doesn't have a chance to make a play

2. Completely missing him being open down the field/ not going through his progressions on short routes to find OBJ open.

It happens between 3-5 times a game with the deep route issues and those are the plays that if Baker made then we would be talking about the resurgence of OBJ rather than missed opportunities and cutting the guy.

 

[buzzdog]

The footage I posted had a few instances each game where Baker either:

1. Messed up a deep(s) throw down the field to OBJ so he doesn't have a chance to make a play

2. Completely missing him being open down the field/ not going through his progressions on short routes to find OBJ open.

It happens between 3-5 times a game with the deep route issues and those are the plays that if Baker made then we would be talking about the resurgence of OBJ rather than missed opportunities and cutting the guy.

I'm talking about Baker failing to see an open Odell and failing to target him when he's wide open downfield. People are criticizing Mayfield's mental make-up and decision making. Your 3-5 times a game is debatable, and probably more like 1-2 times. Name one QB who doesn't miss 1 or 2 open receivers downfield over the course of a game.

There were times when Odell may have been open but the guy Mayfield threw to was just as wide open, and those were significant gains. Unless you're counting inaccurate throws, which absolutely everyone has recognized as flawed in the Bears and Vikings games.

I'm not happy about the flat out bad throws that Mayfield has missed on, but FWIW at least when he's missed it was to spots where no-one could get it which is in itself a sign of growth and maturity.

 

[buzzdog]

Knows Jack shit? I think there is enough data out there if you have any interest in seeing it. It is possible you do not, which is different from it actually meaning something.

The reason passer rating, for example, is a pretty useful stat for looking in to future performance is that is correlated to win percentage. Which is the point of playing right? It is also a stat that is stable, so there aren’t wild fluctuations like TD% for example, that is reliant on a lot of factors like luck, play calling, etc. that are out of a players’ control. Lastly, it is also a stat that is really easy to calculate, which I think is helpful in situations like this, where it is a conversation between people that generally don’t have unlimited sets of data to work with or time to do something like QBR, which is inherently more complicated to spit out and has not been shown to be more predictive of future success.

So it is possible you aren’t the audience for any of this, as an individual person……but that doesn’t mean the data doesn’t mean anything.

I don't mean to say the data is meaningless, I'm sure scouts can use it to quantify differences in players. But to scour the bushes until you find an Achille's heel somewhere in ratings that are filtered in a specific way, then use that to make broader judgements is not how I'm going to assess Mayfield or as some predictor of what his future performance will be. You can have at it and hang your hat on it if you want.

There's a lot of football games yet to be played. Mayfield's value, or lack thereof, will be pretty obvious as the season plays out. I won't need any advanced stats or metrics to tell me if I want to see him kept around long term. Mayfield's performance in your areas of concern can turn on a dime, we've seen him turn on a switch where his performance strongly improved before. I think he's been in a bit of a funk with the torn labrum, pocket instability, and trying to adjust his level of aggressiveness when he's been coached to minimize turnovers as a top priority. I think he can still find his stride and rhythm and finish the season strong, too early to condemn him based on early season results.

 

[DirtyDan]

delete

 

[Sebastian]

If you recall Andy Daulton said he didn’t know how to use it tho…

Well, they don't call him the Red Rocket for no reason.

Spoiler

 

[Real Deal]

Good God Browns twitter is insufferable. Fighting back and forth about orchestrating a Baker Mayfield chant. Stay away from over there.

Need a win tomorrow

 

[thestatman]

Good God Browns twitter is insufferable. Fighting back and forth about orchestrating a Baker Mayfield chant. Stay away from over there.

Need a win tomorrow

The gall of these Browns fans wanting to chant Mayfield's name in order to give him a mental boost. Why not boo the shit out of him instead?