Clanking for Cade: Race to the Bottom

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MirORich

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Title notwithstanding, this is not meant to be a draft thread, but rather a predictive thread to discuss who we think will be the bottom 5 teams in the NBA this season

I’ll go first and in no particular order:

DET: bad last year, Drummond, Wood, Kennard, R Jackson all gone

OKC: Lost 4 of their top 5 players: CP3, Schroeder, Gallinari, Steven Adams

CLE

NYK: Another year, another Frankenstein roster of so so young guys and middling vets on one year deals

CHA: could see them as better than bottom 5 but also see the potential for disaster of Rozier and Graham balk at the power LaMelo is given right away
 
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LeeBuckeye

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Title notwithstanding, this is not meant to be a draft thread, but rather a predictive thread to discuss who we think will be the bottom 5 teams in the NBA this season

I’ll go first and in no particular order:

DET: bad last year, Drummond, Wood, Kennard, R Jackson all gone

OKC: Lost 4 of their top 5 players: CP3, Schroeder, Gallinari, Steven Adams

CLE

NYK: Another year, another Frankenstein roster of so so young guys and middling vets on one year deals

CHA: could see them as better than bottom 5 but also see the potential for disaster of Rozier and Graham balk at the power LaMelo is given right away


Washington and Houston could be on that list if they trade their star players away.
 

MirORich

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Washington and Houston could be on that list if they trade their star players away.
For sure,

For now I’m operating under the assumption of no big moves until the deadline, if at all for either franchise. I see a Wall/Beal/Bertans/Rai/Deni team mode mid to upper lottery than bottom 5.

Same with HOU. As long as Harden and Westbrook + Tucker/Gordon/Wood are healthy and together I see them being more in the 35-47 win range. They defintely sink if one or both are traded
 

cliffdawg

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I hate thinking about next year draft, especially when there are generational player available like Cade available......, Sucks we having play one game yet, and my hope is always this team will click and surprise people.....But I know better, Cade would be nice, also he on ESPN tomorrow at 1 pacific time
 

MirORich

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Being bad. Or even being the worst team in the league no longer guarantees a top pick. You could even be mediocre and wind up with the top pick. No need to tank on purpose.

I agree, and the title was tongue in cheek, but I am interested in who people think will be the bottom 5-6 teams in wins, regardless of the how the lotto plays out
 

sailfish

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Here’s my current top 10 for the 2021 draft:

1) Oklahoma City
2) NY Knicks
3) Detroit
4) Memphis
5) Washington
6) Charlotte
7) Chicago
8) San Antonio
9) Orlando
10) Cleveland

Obviously this is a projection and much can change. If Houston trades Harden, they could easily fall in this range, but their pick would go to OKC, unless it is in the top 4.
 

LeeBuckeye

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Here’s my current top 10 for the 2021 draft:

1) Oklahoma City
2) NY Knicks
3) Detroit
4) Memphis
5) Washington
6) Charlotte
7) Chicago
8) San Antonio
9) Orlando
10) Cleveland

Obviously this is a projection and much can change. If Houston trades Harden, they could easily fall in this range, but their pick would go to OKC, unless it is in the top 4.

Memphis that low? They lost Jaren Jackson Jr. last year and made it to the 9th seed. Ja Morant will make another jump into All-Star status and one of Phoenix or Minnesota will fall well below expectations (Minnesota is my pick provided CP3 stays healthy).
 

Out of the Rafters at the Q

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I don't understand why people keep saying that the new lottery rules mean it's not of benefit to tank.

Sure, you're now less likely to get the number one overall pick than you used to be, but it's still incredibly beneficial not just to have the best shot at each of the four draft slots that are lotteried off, but, in case you're not picked, you still have the highest draft slot of all remaining picks after those first four get chosen.

Go all-in on the tank, finish with the worst record, and go from there. Give yourself the best shot at the best talent.
 

sailfish

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Memphis that low? They lost Jaren Jackson Jr. last year and made it to the 9th seed. Ja Morant will make another jump into All-Star status and one of Phoenix or Minnesota will fall well below expectations (Minnesota is my pick provided CP3 stays healthy).
The west is loaded. Golden State, Minnesota, & Phoenix will be much improved from a year ago. I think OKC, Memphis, & Houston take a big step back. The Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Jazz, & Mavs all appear to be playoff teams. Who’s Memphis taking a spot from?
 

MirORich

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The west is loaded. Golden State, Minnesota, & Phoenix will be much improved from a year ago. I think OKC, Memphis, & Houston take a big step back. The Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Jazz, & Mavs all appear to be playoff teams. Who’s Memphis taking a spot from?

Edit: Sorry! I completely misread your post and you have OKC included in the teams likely to take a big step back, which I agree with entirely as argued below

*****

Can you please explain the reasons you think OKC is ready to take a big step forward?

They lost 4 of your their top 5 scorers

Those 4 happened to be their veteran leader
CP3, Adams, Schroeder, and Gallinari

They also lost 2 other players from their main rotations in Nerlens Noel and Terrance Ferguson

I actually think they are one of the teams likely to have the worst record in the league

When you look at their roster, what do you see there that makes you think they can win more than 24-28 games max?
 
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LeeBuckeye

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The west is loaded. Golden State, Minnesota, & Phoenix will be much improved from a year ago. I think OKC, Memphis, & Houston take a big step back. The Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Jazz, & Mavs all appear to be playoff teams. Who’s Memphis taking a spot from?

@MirORich He said OKC would take a big step back not forward.

Okay , I did my own speculative standings:

(1) Lakers
(2) Clippers
(3) Maverick
(4) Blazers - Healthy bigs
(5) Rockets
(6) Jazz
(7) Nuggets - Losing Grant was big IMO
(8) Suns - CP3 will drag anytime there
(9) Grizzlies
(10) Golden State - Generational talent in curry but people are overrating them even before Klay went out.

(11) T’wolves - Too many holes on that team.
(12) Kings
(13) Spurs
(14) Pelicans - Zero spacing.
(15) Thunder - Worst roster in the league.

11-14 is a crapshoot and doesn’t matter.

Grizzlies will be in the play in tourney again for the 7/8 seed lol. I certainly don’t see them being a bottom 4 team overall without some catastrophic injury.
 

MirORich

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@MirORich He said OKC would take a big step back not forward.

Okay , I did my own speculative standings:

(1) Lakers
(2) Clippers
(3) Maverick
(4) Blazers - Healthy bigs
(5) Rockets
(6) Jazz
(7) Nuggets - Losing Grant was big IMO
(8) Suns - CP3 will drag anytime there
(9) Grizzlies
(10) Golden State - Generational talent in curry but people are overrating them even before Klay went out.

(11) T’wolves - Too many holes on that team.
(12) Kings
(13) Spurs
(14) Pelicans - Zero spacing.
(15) Thunder - Worst roster in the league.

11-14 is a crapshoot and doesn’t matter.

Grizzlies will be in the play in tourney again for the 7/8 seed lol. I certainly don’t see them being a bottom 4 team overall without some catastrophic injury.

Saw it and corrected it.

We agree entirely on OKC. I have them and Detroit as the favorites in the race to worst record.

Minnesota really puzzles me. I can see them improving but I can also see them as a complete trainwreck. Just not sure what the cohesion and fi is there both from a talent standpoint and a personality/agendas standpoint.

They are about to come under a lot of pressure too. They owe there pick to GS with only top3 procreations. If they end up bottoming out, they’ll be a maxed out cap team watching a lottery pick that could have been used to improve or get a good get in return go to GS.

And KAT is starting to enter the danger zone of 6-8 years in the league wherein stud players who extended their rookie deals but are on teams that still aren’t winning begin to do that AAU style backchanneling and allow themselves to start to think about pairing up with other stars in better situations. MIN already tried to head that off by bringing in one of his best friends in DeAngelo Russel, but if that team ends up being a disaster, I can see him being one of the next entering their prime stats(like Kyrie in 2017) who demands a trade this year or next.
 

foucault87

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Obviously there are a lot of moves to happen still, including possible Beal and Harden trades. Without accounting for those, I would say my early predictions for bottom 5 (unordered):

1. OKC - I think the above comments cover it pretty well. This roster is SGA, spare parts, and a ton of draft picks. They are tanking hard this year.

2. Detroit - After the draft, I thought they could at least compete for the 8 seed with a healthy Blake and an extended Christian Wood. Of course, they proceeded to then sign a million centers and assemble a dinosaur era team. Blake is still a great player when healthy, top 15 in the league IMO, but he cannot drag this awful roster to the playoffs

3. NYK - Their roster is pretty barren. The spacing is pretty bad and all their intriguing talent is young. This team is not built to win games right now. I am not sure this team is even built to develop their young talent. I have no idea what they plan to do but winning sure isn't it.

4. NO - Agree with the above. Their spacing is awful. The Adams pickup (and especially extension) are very confusing. BI is an all-star talent but beyond him, JJ, and Hart, I am leaving every other shooter wide open from 3. Zion is still a bit of a mystery. Is he coming back as Duke Zion, January Zion, or bubble Zion? If they get Duke Zion then this prediction looks dumb and they will be in the hunt for one of the play-in spots. Bubble Zion and this might be the worst offense in the league.

5. Cavs - We have a lot of interesting young talent and a few solid vets who aren't good enough to win a lot of games on their own. I think we will be fun to watch, lose a lot of games, and hopefully tank our way to a really good pick. Gilbert loses nothing tanking this year since there are no fans anyway. Might as well maximize development time for the young guys and try to shine our older dudes to trade (Drummond, Love, Exum?).

I would say beyond these 5, Cha, Was, Hou and Minny are the teams to watch. Cha should be better than all the above bc of Hayward+Lamelo alone, but who knows. Washington is really dependent on what they get back in Wall. If he is 80% of pre-injury Wall, they are a low playoff seed team. If not, and especially if Beal is traded, this is a bottom 5 team.

Ditto for Houston and Harden being traded. Russ is great but this isn't 2017. He won't get you to the playoffs anymore. Minny I think has been covered above. They feel so boom or bust. That team can easily be a top 10 offense, bottom 5 defense. They could be competing for a play-in spot or in the dumpster with the other guys.
 
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