This is how I see the Wild Card situation playing out. I have a high degree of confidence about it:
One of the spots will go to the Raiders. They’ve been playing really well, match up nicely against good teams, and I see them overperforming expectations the rest of the way.
Another spot will go to one of Titans/Colts, whichever one doesn’t win the division.
The last spot will be either the Browns or the Ravens, with Miami being left out. This also assumes the teams are relatively healthy...if the Ravens go into a tailspin with their COVID situation, then the Dolphins chances are a little bit better.
I’ll close by saying I think there’s a good chance 4 of the 6 teams mentioned here will finish with a 10-6 record or better. With the exception of Miami, the schedule for each Wild Card contender includes facing a team with 3 wins or less, 2 or 3 times. (The Ravens face 4 of those teams!)
So the 2 teams that don’t achieve a 10-6 record will be the ones left out.