Cleveland Guardians Offseason Discussion 2021-22

[Real Deal]

I have a random question, why is Rosario in LF instead of RF? I feel like since he has a SS arm, he would be better in RF since Palacios and Kwan should be in LF. I think Kwan can outproduce Naylor with the bat and in the field...

Also what time table are you seeing for Naylor, Sandlin, Karinchak etc when it comes to injuries?

I always thought he lacked arm and range regardless, good bat but average fielder.

 

[sportscoach]

I always thought he lacked arm and range regardless, good bat but average fielder.

Usually a SS still has a good arm...

He was rated as a 65 arm when he was a prospect. I don't recall him having any type of surgery that would change the arm strength. He could have bad throwing motion though for the OF...

 

[Tondo]

Very very very slim chances of them bringing in anyone externally between now and Opening Day, by trade or FA. They have an options crunch coming which could change some 40 man makeup but that's about it.

All internal now.

Appreciate your input and informations greatly, you do a great job at explaining their (probable) thought process, but that's where I have a problem with.

I get the strong plan A with Olson/Winker, everybody would be very happy if that came through.
But why is Plan B the complete opposite? Especially considering the strong pitching you mentioned.

Sorry, but I don't buy the Swisher/Bourn scenario. There were lots of year to year options like Pham/Pederson/Voit and even Beaty that are by any reasonable standard much better than our out of options, well "options" like Zimmer/Mercado/B. Bradley/Chang

If they truly go with Arias/Kwan/Palacios/Gimenez that's exciting, but still questionable considering most of their experience levels (and what's Plan B in case of injuries in that scenario? W. Benson/O. Gonzalez, really?).

But I think even you do not fully trust them to do even this right and you insinuate they'll instead start out with our out of options retreads mentioned above. This would be my (and most others) nightmare scenario, but seems like the likeliest now.

It comes down to this: I won't buy the line of thinking that we didn't pursue short term (not blocking anyone) upgrades, so we can give the likes of Zimmer/Mercado/Chang/Bradley another look. Zimmer is 29yo for christ sakes, he's a proven wind mill. Rosario, Mercado and Chang won't ever hit RHP to be everyday players on a contender, same with B. Bradley and LHP. Even if one of them emerges (Rosario best bet considering age+pedigree), is it worth having 3 black holes in the lineup to find that out? When the easy alternative for 2022 cost maybe 15M more (Voit/Pham/Pederson). I'd rather have them push our prospects back as plan B than our retreads, simple as that. And I believe it's a combination of cheapness (15M) and ego (they were high on these guys at one point) to let go of said players and "just buy" better one's (probably outsmart scoffing "everybody can do this"). That's how you end up with Jake Bauers for months instead of investing 1M on CJ Cron and it's the same this offseason, I fear.

Do they really need to find this out? This isn't Swisher/Bourn, sorry but have to call BS on that.

Our FO isn't the only one caught in this either/or mentality, either stars or prospect porn, while the new value niche might be signing solid vets to complement core players. Look how old the Giants were winning 100+, that's the new value smart FOs tap into and I'm afraid ours isn't currently one of them.....and that, to me, as a diehard fan and prospect hardcore, is incredibly disappointing

Please don't take this personally, Bimbo, this is just my honest take to our FOs mindset you thankfully spelled out for us.

 

[Otsego Mar]

Dolan doesn't want to spend money. I think it's fairly simple.

Bimbo or someone outlined in a post a few days ago that "Dolan would basically decide/spend when we are contenders".

I also don't buy the whole "we tried to get XXX player" rehash that every FO puts out there to try to appease their fanbase.

With that being said, I'm still excited for baseball and I think this team can be competitive if healthy. The league isn't what it was like decades ago when powerhouse teams were the only dominate force.

 

[CDAV45]

OK, so now what? Unless something falls into their lap it doesn't appear they are pursuing any trades and intend to roll with what they've got. I can't express how disappointing that is, and that's coming from a fan that has no desire to have a huge payroll. I prefer to draft/trade and develop. Buying a winner doesn't require skill or discipline so it's not very interesting to me.

So here we sit with JRam and several SP on what looks like a non-competitive team(that may not be the case). We also have Rosario being jacked around because of the MIF depth and talent along with his lack of defensive prowess at SS. So how does this play out? They have to add Shaw. They should probably add DLS. Should OGOn be added to the 40 man if he continues to impress? What gives? Who goes? Evidently they needed to wait another year before starting a new "era" because nothing seems to be different other than the name. Actually, things seem more desperate now then they did last year at this time.

Edited to say that this post isn't intended to start some stupid "Dolan is cheap" rant. I want to converse about the direction and possibilities of this team under the current set of circumstances.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Dolan doesn't want to spend money. I think it's fairly simple.

Bimbo or someone outlined in a post a few days ago that "Dolan would basically decide/spend when we are contenders".

I also don't buy the whole "we tried to get XXX player" rehash that every FO puts out there to try to appease their fanbase.

With that being said, I'm still excited for baseball and I think this team can be competitive if healthy. The league isn't what it was like decades ago when powerhouse teams were the only dominate force.

They will. They have in the past. Had a $140 million payroll only 3 seasons ago, easy to forgot considering the last 2 seasons combined have been half that figure pretty much. And they won't be alone (maybe won't even be majority owners too) the next time that window opens again. But they are going to try and sit higher year to year in the aggregate. Whether that is by extending their own in a more advantageous way (more dollars for more control) or acquisitions is still to be seen.

Typically when you are a franchise that likes to build almost 100% organically through prospects or trades for prospects/early in their career MLB guys just reaching arbitration your payroll will go through the ebbs and flows of guys getting paid jack shit to guys getting paid $10m a year by year 4 if they are good.

Every year the fanbase expects the front office to do a complete 180 on how they like to team build and every year fans are shocked little happened during the offseason (though in the case of this offseason they deserve that backlash after their public comments).

And there is a reason Cleveland's front office rarely, if ever, leaks out to national media guys or big twitter guys that "they tried for player x". Makes them weaker from a negotiating standpoint for trades or signings and a franchise in Cleveland in a sport with a player movement system as ruthless as baseball is needs to keep the facade of strength up as much as possible. How they win so many trades in comparison to other franchises.

My message hasn't changed all off season. Patience. This is a very young team with a lot of talent, revenue sharing starts again after 2 years of no revenue sharing, new revenue streams are being introduced to that pool that should see every team getting ~$100m more per year, and the minority shares in escrow plus more will be bought by a guy (and his group) with deeper pockets than the Dolan's or John Sherman.

That shit doesn't sell tickets or merch though, or drum excitement, so I 100% get the fan frustration. And it's very justified frustration too, brought on by a front office that is typically smarter with their off season messaging.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Appreciate your input and informations greatly, you do a great job at explaining their (probable) thought process, but that's where I have a problem with.

I get the strong plan A with Olson/Winker, everybody would be very happy if that came through.
But why is Plan B the complete opposite? Especially considering the strong pitching you mentioned.

Sorry, but I don't buy the Swisher/Bourn scenario. There were lots of year to year options like Pham/Pederson/Voit and even Beaty that are by any reasonable standard much better than our out of options, well "options" like Zimmer/Mercado/B. Bradley/Chang

If they truly go with Arias/Kwan/Palacios/Gimenez that's exciting, but still questionable considering most of their experience levels (and what's Plan B in case of injuries in that scenario? W. Benson/O. Gonzalez, really?).

But I think even you do not fully trust them to do even this right and you insinuate they'll instead start out with our out of options retreads mentioned above. This would be my (and most others) nightmare scenario, but seems like the likeliest now.

It comes down to this: I won't buy the line of thinking that we didn't pursue short term (not blocking anyone) upgrades, so we can give the likes of Zimmer/Mercado/Chang/Bradley another look. Zimmer is 29yo for christ sakes, he's a proven wind mill. Rosario, Mercado and Chang won't ever hit RHP to be everyday players on a contender, same with B. Bradley and LHP. Even if one of them emerges (Rosario best bet considering age+pedigree), is it worth having 3 black holes in the lineup to find that out? When the easy alternative for 2022 cost maybe 15M more (Voit/Pham/Pederson). I'd rather have them push our prospects back as plan B than our retreads, simple as that. And I believe it's a combination of cheapness (15M) and ego (they were high on these guys at one point) to let go of said players and "just buy" better one's (probably outsmart scoffing "everybody can do this"). That's how you end up with Jake Bauers for months instead of investing 1M on CJ Cron and it's the same this offseason, I fear.

Do they really need to find this out? This isn't Swisher/Bourn, sorry but have to call BS on that.

Our FO isn't the only one caught in this either/or mentality, either stars or prospect porn, while the new value niche might be signing solid vets to complement core players. Look how old the Giants were winning 100+, that's the new value smart FOs tap into and I'm afraid ours isn't currently one of them.....and that, to me, as a diehard fan and prospect hardcore, is incredibly disappointing

Please don't take this personally, Bimbo, this is just my honest take to our FOs mindset you thankfully spelled out for us.

You can have your take.

But I promise you the front office does not think that way. You have their mindset all wrong. They also aren't going to deviate much from how they like to operate. It can be frustrating for fans, but the results they are able to achieve consistently over the last 3 decades speak for themselves. Seattle, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Diego, etc would kill to be able to replicate what Cleveland has been able to do since the turn of millennium.

And friendly reminder for the Pham's, Pederson's, and in the case of Voit we already have Franmil as a masher who can't play a position if their life depended on it...it takes 2 to tango when it comes to free agency.

There is a reason you heard about Pederson interest from Cleveland this off season and it wasn't because Cleveland wanted that info out there.

 

[Steve_424]

I am going to think positive and wait for the "It's Happening" GIF from @BimboColesHair this weekend

 

[petes999]

For years, I call this a game of poker. If you don’t have a hand that has a chance to win it all, what is the point of just calling everyone else raises? It just leaves you with less assets to go all in when you do have the right hand.

Getting 2nd tier guys, would have given us a few more wins. It would not put us into WC chase, alone. What will is our prospects. If they do well and Kwan and Arias are rookie of year candidates, we still have option of trading come July for missing pieces if in race then. Yet, with Pederson or Pharm or ... in left and Naylor in right, Arias and Kwan would already be in AAA with these FA and Rosario blocking them. And, all Oscar fans would only hope Cle cuts him to have chance elsewhere.

It’s not popular to see your team stand pat as it isn’t exciting. Yet, it’s the only way to play the hand dealt to them.

 

[Tondo]

You can have your take.

But I promise you the front office does not think that way. You have their mindset all wrong. They also aren't going to deviate much from how they like to operate. It can be frustrating for fans, but the results they are able to achieve consistently over the last 3 decades speak for themselves. Seattle, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Diego, etc would kill to be able to replicate what Cleveland has been able to do since the turn of millennium.

And friendly reminder for the Pham's, Pederson's, and in the case of Voit we already have Franmil as a masher who can't play a position if their life depended on it...it takes 2 to tango when it comes to free agency.

There is a reason you heard about Pederson interest from Cleveland this off season and it wasn't because Cleveland wanted that info out there.

I sure hope I have their mindset all wrong and while their track record of recent success is strong, it's declining as more and more teams operate the way they do now. And by default, most of them won't win.
When the entire league operates like you do, you need to find a new edge. Even the Rays sign mid level FAs or trade for them to complement their roster core.

My fear is our FO is too loyal and too stuck with past assessments of acquired players and have a hard time letting go of them, giving them 2nd and 3rd chances to prove themselves. That's the way rebuilding teams can and should operate, not teams with a young core of Star players like Jose, Bieber and Clase. It's not more star players (Olson/Winker) or rookies. There's a sea of players in between that can help stabilize a team and lineup.

I'm high on our current minors players too, but the alternative of fully relying on them or watching our out of options guys get a 3rd chance is maddening. There's little injury fallback and we might rush some prospects and put too much pressure on them.

We'll probably see a half assed mix of the two, simply out of necessity otherwise we know they'd all still be on the opening day roster (like all of the out of options pitchers).
Arias and Kwan will get a shot, they'll cut one of Mercado or Zimmer and that's it. That's my prediction

 

[BimboColesHair]

I am going to think positive and wait for the "It's Happening" GIF from @BimboColesHair this weekend

Hey, could be this weekend, and with the lockout and shortened time to talk with players this could be the one exception to the rule where they bring negotiations into the season. I doubt it, but this would be the season to break that rule.

 

[Steve_424]

Hey, could be this weekend, and with the lockout and shortened time to talk with players this could be the one exception to the rule where they bring negotiations into the season. I doubt it, but this would be the season to break that rule.

I truly appreciate the insight you've provided us. Any updates you can provide on J. Naylor, Jones, and Freeman in regard to their injury recoveries?

 

[BimboColesHair]

I sure hope I have their mindset all wrong and while their track record of recent success is strong, it's declining as more and more teams operate the way they do now. And by default, most of them won't win.
When the entire league operates like you do, you need to find a new edge. Even the Rays sign mid level FAs or trade for them to complement their roster core.

My fear is our FO is too loyal and too stuck with past assessments of acquired players and have a hard time letting go of them, giving them 2nd and 3rd chances to prove themselves. That's the way rebuilding teams can and should operate, not teams with a young core of Star players like Jose, Bieber and Clase. It's not more star players (Olson/Winker) or rookies. There's a sea of players in between that can help stabilize a team and lineup.

I'm high on our current minors players too, but the alternative of fully relying on them or watching our out of options guys get a 3rd chance is maddening. There's little injury fallback and we might rush some prospects and put too much pressure on them.

We'll probably see a half assed mix of the two, simply out of necessity otherwise we know they'd all still be on the opening day roster (like all of the out of options pitchers).
Arias and Kwan will get a shot, they'll cut one of Mercado or Zimmer and that's it. That's my prediction

No...

No it is not.

There is a reason Cleveland of all teams has the 5th most wins in baseball since 2010. There is a reason Cleveland is one of the few small to mid market teams in baseball to open a multiple season contention window every decade since the 90s with legit results (outside of the obvious WS win).

Teams TRY to replicate what Cleveland does. They do that by hiring Cleveland front office guys. But its the system as a whole, a system unique to Cleveland, that produces the consistency in a game hard to produce consistency. Unless someone takes that entire system with them that won't change.

Like I said, I get the fan frustration, I really do. But there is a reason 1/6th of the league is ran by ex-Cleveland front office guys. And there is a reason Cleveland continues to churn out better, more consistent success over the years than those teams.

 

[Tondo]

For years, I call this a game of poker. If you don’t have a hand that has a chance to win it all, what is the point of just calling everyone else raises? It just leaves you with less assets to go all in when you do have the right hand.

Getting 2nd tier guys, would have given us a few more wins. It would not put us into WC chase, alone. What will is our prospects. If they do well and Kwan and Arias are rookie of year candidates, we still have option of trading come July for missing pieces if in race then. Yet, with Pederson or Pharm or ... in left and Naylor in right, Arias and Kwan would already be in AAA with these FA and Rosario blocking them. And, all Oscar fans would only hope Cle cuts him to have chance elsewhere.

It’s not popular to see your team stand pat as it isn’t exciting. Yet, it’s the only way to play the hand dealt to them.

I fully disagree. This team, with all its holes, won 80 and more the year before. A couple of more wins here and there absolutely keep us in the widened WC hunt and even more important when it comes to keeping Ramirez or trading him.

This roster has distinct, clear cut positions of need. We know them for years and it's frankly at positions where it's fairly easy and relatively cheap to upgrade, OF and 1B. We've run well below average bats out there for years now and look to plug in the same names again this season.

That's not a bad hand getting dealt, it's bad roster construction.
Everyone's small market poster child, the Rays, traded for Meadows, Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi, Y. Diaz, Zunino and Margot, a who's who of average bats, who weren't expensive in return. Guess what, pair that with their kick ass pitching and you have a contender.

You won't ever convince me that we couldn't have done something similar by being stuck with a bad hand. Rays have been much more proactive and didn't shy away trading their prospects. They didn't win every trade, had many clunkers in it, but they got rewarded for their activity.

We're aren't stuck by a bad hand, it's a lot of own made misery keeping us stuck as a result, it's by decision and it won't change if you don't change the decision process.

 

[Otsego Mar]

No...

No it is not.

There is a reason Cleveland of all teams has the 5th most wins in baseball since 2010. There is a reason Cleveland is one of the few small to mid market teams in baseball to open a multiple season contention window every decade since the 90s with legit results (outside of the obvious WS win).

Teams TRY to replicate what Cleveland does. They do that by hiring Cleveland front office guys. But its the system as a whole, a system unique to Cleveland, that produces the consistency in a game hard to produce consistency. Unless someone takes that entire system with them that won't change.

Like I said, I get the fan frustration, I really do. But there is a reason 1/6th of the league is ran by ex-Cleveland front office guys. And there is a reason Cleveland continues to churn out better, more consistent success over the years than those teams.

Cold weather and perogies??