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KI4MVP said:
your estimate for total deaths before it runs its course? More or less than the 300-600k who will die from the flu this year?
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I don't know because I am really worried about misinformation. Are we getting accurate numbers from china?

I would guess fewer than deaths from the flu, but it probably matters how well they can keep it contained. The incubation period seems the like the worst part of this. Flu you don't get 14 days to spread it around.

I've been more concerned about this in general than most people. My grandma was peculiarly old since she was 40 when she had my dad. She was born in 1907 and she was a young girl during the Spanish Flu.

So, she said that at that time, everyone stayed inside for the entire winter, meaning November to May. You didn't go to town, and you didn't go to school. In the summer everyone came out of their houses and the threat was mostly over. Still, not everyone came out of their house. She said there were more than a couple houses in her small rural town where everyone inside was dead.

That was pre airtravel and people stayed put then and tens of millions of people died.

What I am concerned about it the death rate is right in the sweet spot for pandemics. If it is higher, it usually burns itself out. That and the incubation period.

Right now, we probably good because the total numbers are so low, but again I am worried about misinformation. The quarantine in Italy failed, and I see the same thing happening here if it happens. People can't afford not to work for a month.
 
Cavatt said:
I don't know because I am really worried about misinformation. Are we getting accurate numbers from china?

I would guess fewer than deaths from the flu, but it probably matters how well they can keep it contained. The incubation period seems the like the worst part of this. Flu you don't get 14 days to spread it around.

I've been more concerned about this in general than most people. My grandma was peculiarly old since she was 40 when she had my dad. She was born in 1907 and she was a young girl during the Spanish Flu.

So, she said that at that time, everyone stayed inside for the entire winter, meaning November to May. You didn't go to town, and you didn't go to school. In the summer everyone came out of their houses and the threat was mostly over. Still, not everyone came out of their house. She said there were more than a couple houses in her small rural town where everyone inside was dead.

That was pre airtravel and people stayed put then and tens of millions of people died.

What I am concerned about it the death rate is right in the sweet spot for pandemics. If it is higher, it usually burns itself out. That and the incubation period.

Right now, we probably good because the total numbers are so low, but again I am worried about misinformation. The quarantine in Italy failed, and I see the same thing happening here if it happens. People can't afford not to work for a month.
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Based on what I've seen, I'm expecting short term disruption wherever it spreads, but agree that the death totals will likely be lower than the flu unless there is a lot of misinformation.

I'm not at all suggesting we don't take action to keep it from spreading and continue to keep an eye on it especially since i have two trips planned for next month. Taking my daughter to DC for spring break and Vegas the following week for work. Considering canceling the Vegas trip.
 
If its a 2-3% death rate..how would a house full of people die?
If 100 people catch it only 2-3 would die.

A person coughs and within a 3ft radius the virus falls to the ground.
Masks are really only effective keeping the virus in, so sick people dont spread it by coughing.
If you touch the virus then touch your face the mask is useless.
 
KI4MVP said:
Based on what I've seen, I'm expecting short term disruption wherever it spreads, but agree that the death totals will likely be lower than the flu unless there is a lot of misinformation.

I'm not at all suggesting we don't take action to keep it from spreading and continue to keep an eye on it especially since i have two trips planned for next month. Taking my daughter to DC for spring break and Vegas the following week for work. Considering canceling the Vegas trip.
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I have to travel a lot for work, and it's just adding unnecessary stress. I always have to meet people and shake hands. I am actually not worried about dying because in my age range it isn't very deadly, but I have a young kid.

I have just been thinking about how necessary all the flying and stuff we do is, and really it isn't. Not god for the environment or these type of situations.
 
speaking of potential misinformation, I just saw this. If true, it's so incredibly stupid to underreport the numbers.

 
Ethan said:
If its a 2-3% death rate..how would a house full of people die?
If 100 people catch it only 2-3 would die.

A person coughs and within a 3ft radius the virus falls to the ground.
Masks are really only effective keeping the virus in, so sick people dont spread it by coughing.
If you touch the virus then touch your face the mask is useless.
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Spanish flu may have had a 10% death rate, but since all those people were related they might have been more susceptible than the general population.
I wasn't trying to scare everyone, I am just saying something really terrible like this happened not that long ago. Still it was the teens, and they had no retrovirals or anything. It infected 25% of the world population. That is insane.

One thing about the flu is it mutates really rapidly. I don't know about the Coronavirus mutation rates.
 
Lord Mar said:
In about 9 months from now when the final death toll is around 5k you can retread this.
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It's going to be higher than 5k, it's almost at 3k now. Big gap between 5k and 300-600k that die from the flu.
 
People worried about traveling? I traveled to China while it was going on and came back in one piece.
 
Unless it mutates!

Time to go to Alaska.

The distances and extreme cold will protect one against infection.

I recommend Chena Hot Springs.
 
TyGuy said:
People worried about traveling? I traveled to China while it was going on and came back in one piece.
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my wife is a cancer survivor and has a weakened immune system because of that, I don't want to take unnecessary risks that she gets infected.
 
KI4MVP said:
It's going to be higher than 5k, it's almost at 3k now. Big gap between 5k and 300-600k that die from the flu.
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The death total may be irrelevant when we talk about the downstream effect of it. China produces a lot of the world's goods. From what I've heard we import 99% of our antibiotics from China. If they're locked down for another...what.. 3 months? What's the lasting effect over here? No drugs. Less steel. The impact on car manufacturers. Retail. Etc etc.

Then you add on the spreading of the disease with a death percentage less than the yearly flu but a great spread rate and we talk about quarantining here in the US. Like @Cavatt said. People live paycheck to paycheck. This could be a disaster on the scale of the Spanish Flu for an economic perspective alone.

The stock market took a shit this week. Companies are hurting because of the lack of Chinese imports.
 
Benway said:
I can only imagine that North Korea has some very high numbers with very little capacity for treatment.
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Speaking of best Korea they had a person who broke a quarantine order and they promptly executed them reported on February 13 iirc from multiple outlets
 
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