Coronavirus - Official Notifications Etc. PM Stannis with Official Updates for Posting

[KI4MVP]

How much of China's production is actually shut down right now?

 

[inliner311]

How much of China's production is actually shut down right now?

My friend in Chengdu told me that all the foundries for the company he works for are back up and running. He said that they are only still only allowed to have 50% of the workers, which I don't know if that is just office workers or factory works too. He is only going back into the office on Tuesdays and Thursdays. He works at home the rest of the week.

He also said that the bus and public transportation is still has barely anyone on them but the car traffic has picked up alot.

He also ordered some parts for his bike. The seller said he drop them off but it didn't even get scanned for 2 weeks. He said it finally got scanned yesterday but the tracking didn't look like it moved.

 

[TyGuy]

my wife is a cancer survivor and has a weakened immune system because of that, I don't want to take unnecessary risks that she gets infected.

I have type 1 diabetes, so that i guess puts me in the immune compromised category as well. I also packed into two full plane rides flying around china. So I was probably at infinitely more risk than anybody and that makes sense given the low infection numbers compared to the ridiculously high population of China.

 

[The Oi]

We are all always at tremendous risk of dying of anything. Driving your car is incredibly risky. Anything in your house could cause it to explode. Owning a gun. You could choke on food. So many things can cause cancer, heart attacks. The flu is kind of risky.

None of these things are particularly worth worrying about.

You’re hearing about the coronavirus because it’s intriguing.

Why are you letting them do this to you?

 

[TyGuy]

We are all always at tremendous risk of dying of anything. Driving your car is incredibly risky. Anything in your house could cause it to explode. Owning a gun. You could choke on food. So many things can cause cancer, heart attacks. The flu.

You’re hearing about the coronavirus because it’s intriguing.

Why are you letting them do this to you?

At least people are washing their hands now.

 

[KI4MVP]

I have type 1 diabetes, so that i guess puts me in the immune compromised category as well. I also packed into two full plane rides flying around china. So I was probably at infinitely more risk than anybody and that makes sense given the low infection numbers compared to the ridiculously high population of China.

yes, infection rates are incredibly low relative to the population. Just in monitoring mode for now. Trips are second half of March.

 

[KI4MVP]

We are all always at tremendous risk of dying of anything. Driving your car is incredibly risky. Anything in your house could cause it to explode. Owning a gun. You could choke on food. So many things can cause cancer, heart attacks. The flu is kind of risky.

None of these things are particularly worth worrying about.

You’re hearing about the coronavirus because it’s intriguing.

Why are you letting them do this to you?

With people cutting down on travel, Coronavirus is probably saving more lives than it's taking at this point. Globally 1.25 million people die in car accidents each year.

 

[TyGuy]

yes, infection rates are incredibly low relative to the population. Just in monitoring mode for now. Trips are second half of March.

Yeah, even if you were in or still in Wuhan the chances are low. There is over 11 million people there.

 

[Otsego Mar]

At least people are washing their hands now.

If we could only get them to start washing their ass as well.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Please stop spreading misinformation, like claiming the death rate is less than the seasonal flu. It's not.

The case fatality rate — the percentage of known infected people who die — is between 2% and 4% in Hubei province, and 0.7% in other parts of China, he said.

A case fatality rate of between 2% to 4% rivals and even exceeds that of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed upwards of 50 million people. Even a case fatality rate of 0.7% — which means 7 out of every 1,000 infected people would die — is sobering. It is seven times the fatality rate for seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

New data from China buttress fears about high coronavirus fatality rate, WHO expert says

A WHO expert who visited China said he did not see evidence that a large number of mild #coronavirus cases are evading detection, meaning its lethality has likely not been exaggerated.

www.statnews.com

However, the fear (And reason for all the precautionary measures) is not because of anything the virus is currently doing. It's because we don't know what the virus can do. We know the seasonal flu will die down in the Spring. We have no idea what will happen with the coronavirus in the next few months.

We also don't know if it could mutate to become deadlier or harder to stop.

So, no, it's currently not going to wipe out a chunk of humanity. But, yes, the extreme measures being put in place right now to stop the spread of the virus as quickly as possible are well-intentioned. Anything less would be reckless.

 

[Sebastian]

Thanos’ back up plan to the Infinity Stones was rather weak.

2.7% won’t make much of a dent toward saving humanity from itself.

Now if the CV left people sterile that’s a good start.

 

[Mr. Orange]

The Spanish Flu happened before we had modern medicine, television, the internet, etc. Not the best proxy. I'm not sure what the proxy is to be honest, but 50MM dead is alarmist talk. Feel like this is being handled pretty well by most governments, and we owe China a big shout out for locking down a huge city. The Chinese Government deserves a lot of praise once this is over. I suspect come April/May this really dies down.

The stock market is in a classic fear-based panic. Probably oversold, but I could see the panic continuing next week. May be a buying op, but I would let it settle first and find a bottom. However....

I am not an idiot. I've bought some cases of water, canned food, ibuprofen, soap and other toiletries. It's all stuff I'll use anyways, but it doesn't hurt anything to have on hand. I would advise my RCF brethren to do the same if you haven't already. Even if it is just a weeks worth.

 

[Mr. Orange]

Oh one other thing....I'm not sure if the Fed can fix this. Only time may fix it.

 

[KI4MVP]

Please stop spreading misinformation, like claiming the death rate is less than the seasonal flu. It's not.

New data from China buttress fears about high coronavirus fatality rate, WHO expert says

A WHO expert who visited China said he did not see evidence that a large number of mild #coronavirus cases are evading detection, meaning its lethality has likely not been exaggerated.

www.statnews.com

However, the fear (And reason for all the precautionary measures) is not because of anything the virus is currently doing. It's because we don't know what the virus can do. We know the seasonal flu will die down in the Spring. We have no idea what will happen with the coronavirus in the next few months.

We also don't know if it could mutate to become deadlier or harder to stop.

So, no, it's currently not going to wipe out a chunk of humanity. But, yes, the extreme measures being put in place right now to stop the spread of the virus as quickly as possible are well-intentioned. Anything less would be reckless.

There are two kinds of death rates being discussed.

number of deaths per confirmed infection. Appears to be higher than the flu, but it's unknown how many people were infected but not identified because they didn't show symptoms. But at this point it seems reasonable to say the death rate per infection his higher than the flu.

per capital death rate (including daily rate of change). Unclear if it will be as deadly as the yearly flu. It's certainly possible for it to have a higher death rate per infection than the flu while simultaneously having a lower per capita death rate than the flu if the number of cases are contained.

I look at the daily deaths and am encouraged it won't kill as many people as the flu this year unless we're getting very incomplete data.

 

[KI4MVP]

One piece of data may be worth looking at is diamond princess.
3,711 people on board diamond princess, 705 became infected (19%), 6 deaths so far (0.16% of passengers), 689 active case, 10 recoveries, 36 in serious or critical condition. If 0.16% of the population dies from coronavirus, that's 12.3 million people.

if the infection and deaths spanned the planet at the rate they did thus far on diamond princess, that's about 1.5 billion cases and 12.3 million deaths. Clearly we want to take measures to avoid that. And those numbers assume all of the remaining 689 people recover, which doesn't seem likely.